National Drought Management Authority

Transcription

1 National Drought Management Authority KILIFI COUNTY DROUGHT EARLY WARNING BULLETIN FOR OCTOBER 2016 OCTOBER EW PHASE Early Warning(EW) Phase Classification Livelihood Zone Stage Trend Marginal Mixed farming Alarm deteriorating Livestock/Ranching Emergency deteriorating Drought situation and phase classification Biophysical Indicators (Environmental indicators) On average the county received minimal rains, 1 mm. State of water sources in the county during the month under review was 2 (strongly inadequate). On average pasture condition was depleted in the ranching and marginal zone and poor in other livelihood zones. Significant deterioration of 3-month vegetation Condition Index Socio Economic Indicators (Impact Indicators) Production indicators Livestock body condition was poor and deteriorating at score of 3, 2 and 1 in some parts in the ranching zone. Milk production reduced in the month of October. Access indicators The average distance to water sources by both households and livestock increased significantly. Water prices per 20ltr jerrycan increased significantly. The terms of trade remained unfavorable. Reduction in percentage of total milk produced and consumed at households level. Utilization indicators The proportion of children at risk of malnutrition recorded an increase. Coping Strategy index too increased an indication of increase in food shortage. Cash Cropping/Dairy Alert deteriorating Food Cropping Alert deteriorating COUNTY Alarm deteriorating Biophysical Indicators Value Normal Average Rainfall (% of normal) VCI-3month Production indicators Value Normal Livestock Migration Pattern Increased migration to ranches (Giriama in Ganze and ADC ranch and Tsavo park) Livestock Body Conditions Milk Production ltr/hh/day 0.5 >1.0 Crop condition Land preparation Planting Access Indicators Value Normal Terms of Trade (ToT) 52 >63 Milk Consumption (% 40% >40% range) Average Water Distance for 7.2 <2.6 Households (Km) Average Grazing-Water 9.4 <5.0 point Distance (Km) Utilization indicators Value Normal MUAC (%) 5.4 <5.1 Coping Strategy Index (CSI) 1.8 <1.5 Minimal migration search of water and pasture Short rains harvests Short dry spell Reduced milk yields Increased HH Food Stocks Land preparation Planting/Weeding Long rains High calving Rate Milk yields Increase Long rains harvests A long dry spell Land preparation Increased HH Food Stocks Kidding (Sept) Short rains Planting/weeding Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Page 1 of 18

2 1.0 CLIMATIC CONDITIONS 1.1 Rainfall Performance 1.2 Amount and Spatial Distribution Figure1a: Average rainfall recorded in Kilifi County Very minimal rains were recorded in the county. The amount received was 1.8% of the long term mean and this was not normal for this time of the year. Figure1b: Kilifi County rainfall anomalies Figure 1b above indicates the rainfall anomalies for the county. Both 1 month and 3 month show negative variation from normal. Page 2 of 18

3 2.0 IMPACT ON VEGETATION AND WATER 2.1 Vegetation condition Vegetation Condition Index [VCI] The Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) compares the current NDVI to the range of values observed in the same period in previous years. KILIFI As at 27 th September 2016 As at 30 th October 2016 County Ganze Kaloleni Magarini Malindi Kilifi-North Rabai Kilifi-South Figure 2a: Three month Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) values for Kilifi County [Source: Boku University -Austria] Figure 2b: Three month Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) matrix and chart for Kilifi County [Source: Boku University -Austria] The county average Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) remained low indicating severe vegetation deficit. The severe vegetation deficit was as a result of the minimal or no rainfall recorded across livelihood zones in the county. The current 3-month VCI recorded was low compared to long term mean at this time of the year. Page 3 of 18

4 Figure 2c: Sub County 3-month Vegetation Condition Indices Matrices Ganze, Malindi, Magarini and Kilifi North sub counties recorded severe vegetation deficit in the month of October while Rabai and Kilifi South recorded moderate vegetation deficit and normal vegetation greenness respectively in the current month. Kaloleni Sub County recorded further deterioration of vegetation condition during the month of October as compared to previous month from moderate to severe vegetation deficit. Kaloleni sub county has recorded the worst ever 3-month VCI. The decline in vegetation has caused severe negative impact where numerous cattle fatalities have been recorded in Ganze, Kaloleni and Magarini sub counties. Figure 2d: Kaloleni Sub County Vegetation Condition Index Matrix Page 4 of 18

5 Figure 2e: Kilifi County Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) Figure 2e shows significant vegetation variation from normal. Significant deviation from normal started since April 2016 to date Pasture Pasture depletion is worst in the ranching and marginal/mixed farming zones of Kilifi. In areas with pasture it was rated as poor and deteriorating due to increased pressure as livestock migrated to those areas. Pasture in food/cash cropping and parts of mixed farming livelihood zones had deteriorated to poor condition. The quantity of poor pasture available currently is expected on average to last for less than2 weeks in the food/cash cropping zones. The current pasture condition was much below normal at this time of the year and expected to continue deteriorating as the drought hits. Intra-migration continued to be observed in the livestock farming zone of the county in search for pasture and water. Livestock were migrating to Giriama and Hussein Dairy ranch in Ganze Sub County and ADC Galana-Kulalu/Tsavo ranch in Magarini and Malindi sub counties Browse On average, browse condition was fair to poor in the food cropping/dairy zone and some parts of the food cropping zone. In the ranching/livestock farming zone it was poor and 60% depleted. The current condition of browse was below normal at this time of the year and expected to continue deteriorating as the drought hits. Page 5 of 18

6 2.2 Water Resource Sources Water Sources for Households in Kilifi County 42% 16% 26% 16% Pans & Dams Boreholes/Shallow wells Natural/River wells Pipeline Figure 4: Water sources for households in Kilifi County The main water sources for domestic and livestock use across all livelihood zones in the month of October were pipeline (42%), pans/dams (16%), natural rivers and river wells (26%) and boreholes/shallow wells (16%). The proportion of households who relied on pipeline and boreholes increased significantly in the current month as a result of drying of approximately 95 percent of the water pans Those households closer to river Sabaki depended on river wells and the river for livestock and household use. Households in the livestock farming zone of Ganze, Magarini and Kaloleni accessed water provided through water trucking by the county department of water. The EW phase classification index for water sources in the county during the month under review was 2 (strongly inadequate) where surface water sources have dried up, underground water sources are yielding very little amounts of water. Breakages of boreholes contribute to worsen the situation. Acute water shortage in many parts of Ganze Kaloleni and Magarini sub counties Household access and Utilization Page 6 of 18 DEC NOV OCT SEP AUG JUL JUN MAY APR MAR FEB JAN AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD RETURN DISTANCE TO WATER SOURCES IN KILIFI COUNTY JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC YEAR LTM ( ) Figure 5: Household average return distance to water points

7 The average return distance to water sources for households increased further by 10 percent in the current month from 6.5 km to 7.2 km. The increase was occasioned by drying of more water pans in the ranching and marginal mixed farming zones leading to increased dependence on far away water pans, pipeline and water trucking. The longest average return distance was recorded in the ranching zone of Ganze and Magarini sub counties with an average of 15.4 km while the shortest average distance was recorded in the cash cropping zone with average return distance of 1 km. The increase in average distance in the ranching zone was occasioned by continued water stress in Ganze, Kaloleni and Magarini sub counties. Water quality from the water pans deteriorated significantly thus need for supply of water treatment chemicals. Average price for water increased significantly ranching from Kshs 30 in Bamba to Kshs 50 in Kayafungo in Kaloleni ward. Average return distance to water points for households during the month was significantly higher than long term mean and average distance during the same month last year Livestock access to water DEC NOV OCT SEP AUG JUL JUN MAY APR MAR FEB JAN AVERAGE LIVESTOCK RETURN DISTANCE TO WATER POINTS FROM GRAZING AREA IN KILIFI COUNTY JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC YEAR LTM ( ) Figure 6: Average livestock return distance to water point from grazing area. The average return distance from grazing areas increased by 4 percent to 9.4 km in the month under review. The high return distance can mainly be attributable to depletion of pasture in ranching /livestock and marginal mixed farming zones. In Ganze sub county livestock were travelling for long distances to Giriama ranch for water and pasture while in Magarini Sub County, livestock moved to Tsavo Park and ADC ranch in search for pasture. The main sources of water in Magarini Sub County remained Kadzandani and Adu boreholes and the Galana River, while in Kaloleni Sub county it was Baluhya water pan and in Ganze sub county Nzovuni river and Giryama Ranch preserved for livestock. The longest average return distance was recorded in the livestock farming zone with an average of 18 km while the shortest average distance was recorded in the cash cropping zone with 4.4 km. Areas of Bamba, Bofu, Kamale, Adu and Mwanamwinga in the ranching zone, continued to recorded high livestock trekking distances in search for water and pasture. Average distances expected to increase further as short rains forecast indicate a delayed, early cessation and below normal season Page 7 of 18

8 The average return distance to grazing areas during the month was 88% higher than long term mean and 60% above the average distance observed in September last year. Page 8 of 18

9 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 3.0 Livestock production Livestock body condition Livestock body condition continued deteriorating. The ranching zones of Ganze, Kaloleni and Magarini body condition had a score of 3 (Thin fore ribs visible) and in some areas 2 (Very thin no fat, bones visible) mostly in the ranching zone and 1 (Emaciated, little muscle left) in some parts of the ranching zone. Interventions on livestock feed supplementation distributed in last dekad of October in Ganze and Kaloleni recorded significant improvement on animal condition (recumbent animals can now stand on their own). The deterioration of body condition of livestock in the marginal mixed and ranching zone was due to stress in accessing pasture and water. The body condition for cattle is fair in the food cropping and cash cropping livelihood zones during the month under review occasioned by poor quality of pasture and browse. Sheep/goats body condition ranged between good to fair across all livelihood zones Livestock diseases New castle disease was observed in poultry across all livelihood zones Foot and Mouth Disease reported in Ganze and Magarini sub county provisional quarantine issued along livestock migratory routes Milk production Milk production decreased further by 29% as compared to the previous month from 1.4 litres per household per day recorded in September to 0.5 litre per household per day in the month of October. The production was lower in the ranching zone at between 0.25 and 0.5 litre per household per day while the highest production was recorded in the cash cropping/dairy and food cropping livelihood zones with between 1.0 to 1.5 litres per household per day. The difference between livelihood zones was due to an increase in average trekking distance to water sources from grazing areas. Many livestock farmers had stopped milking the animals due to pasture and water stress allowing the calves to suck. 3.2 Rain fed crop production Stage and condition of food crops There are no crops in the farms at this time of the year Farmers engaged in land preparation in readiness for the short rains planting season Crop harvest Farmers continued to harvest vegetables along river Sabaki through irrigation agriculture. Page 9 of 18

10 PRICE IN KSHS 4.0 MARKET PERFORMANCE 4.1 Livestock marketing Cattle Prices AVERAGE CATTLE PRICE IN KILIFI COUNTY IN COMPARISON TO THE LONG TERM MEAN JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC LTM ( ) YEAR Figure7: Average cattle price (4 year bull/steer) in major livestock markets in Kilifi County. Average livestock prices decreased significantly. Average cattle price were significantly low due to the poor body conditions occasioned by long trekking distance in search of pasture and water. In the month of October, a medium sized bull/steer was retailing at Ksh10,000 as compared to ksh15,000 in the previous month. In the ranching zone of Bamba and Kaloleni prices were less than Ksh4000 compared to normal at Kshs15,000. Low trader numbers were also observed in the main livestock markets in the county due shying off from buying cattle whose body condition was poor or emaciated. The average price recorded in the month of October price 37 percent lower than the long term meanwhile in the ranching zone it was 73% lower compared to normal Goat Prices Figure 8: Average goat price (2 year old) at market level in Kilifi County. Average goat prices recorded a decrease in October. Page 10 of 18

11 PRICE PER KG IN KSHS The current average market price of a medium sized goat was Khs2172 compared to Ksh2200 recorded in the previous month. The highest average goat prices were recorded in the mixed farming and livestock farming zone at Ksh2500 while the least prices were recorded in the food cropping zone at Ksh1700. The price recorded in the current month was 5 percent lower than the long term mean. 4.2 Crop Prices Maize 60.0 AVERAGE MAIZE PRICE IN THE COUNTY IN COMPARISON TO THE LONG TERM MEAN PRICE JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC LTM ( ) YEAR Figure 9: Average maize price in Kilifi County. Average maize price remained stably high in the month of October as compared to the previous month at ksh42 per kilogram. The high average price was occasioned by depletion of household stocks from the 2016 long rains harvest. The mixed farming zone recorded the highest average price of Ksh47 per kilogram while the cash/food cropping zone posted the lowest average price of Ksh40 per kilogram. The observed average price was 11 percent higher compared to the long term mean. Page 11 of 18

12 KILOGRAMS OF MAIZE) PRICE IN KSH Beans AVERAGE BEANS PRICE AT MARKET LEVEL IN THE COUNTY IN COMPARISON TO THE LONG TERM MEAN JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC LTM ( ) YEAR Figure 10: Average beans price in Kilifi County. Average beans prices increased by 5 percent in October as compared to the previous month. High average prices of beans are occasioned by high transport costs since they are imported from other counties and minimal 2016 long rains harvest of green grams and cow peas. The livestock farming zone recorded the highest average price of Ksh100 per kilogram while the cash cropping zone posted the lowest average price of Ksh80 per kilogram. The current average price recorded in October was 8 percent higher than the long term mean Average price in October is within the acceptable normal range at this time of the year. 4.3 TERMS OF TRADE The terms of trade determines the purchasing power of livestock keepers TERMS OF TRADE IN KILIFI COUNTY JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC LTM ( ) YEAR Figure 11: Terms of Trade in Kilifi County The terms of trade remained similarly unfavourable in the month under review as compared to the previous month. The livestock keepers were able to buy 52 kilograms of maize by selling one goat Page 12 of 18

13 The terms were more favourable in the livestock farming zone at 59 kgs of maize for sale of one goat while in the food cropping zone the terms of trade were unfavourable at 42 kgs for sale of one goat. The variation across livelihood zones was due to varying average price of maize and body condition of goats. The terms of trade were 17 percent lower than the long term mean. Page 13 of 18

14 PERCENT 5.0 NUTRITIONAL STATUS 5.1 Milk Consumption There was a decrease in the average milk consumed at households in the current month as compared to the previous month On average, 40 percent of the total milk produced in October was consumed at household level while the rest was sold to supplement households income. Average household milk price remained high at Ksh50 per litre. Highest milk price was recorded in the cash cropping /dairy zone with Ksh60 per litre while the lowest average price was recorded in the mixed farming zone with Ksh40 per liter Farmers who delivered their milk to the dairy centers reported lower average price of Kshs30 per litre. 5.2 Health and Nutritional Status Mid Upper Arm Circumference [MUAC] 12.0 PERCENTAGE OF CHILDREN UNDER FIVE YEARS OF AGE AT RISK OF MALNUTRITION IN KILIFI COUNTY ; MUAC<=135MM JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC LTM ( ) YEAR Figure 12: Proportion of children under five years at risk of malnutrition (MUAC<=135mm) [n=1614] Average percentage of children under five years at risk of malnutrition increased in the current month to 5.4%. The increase may be attributed to poor household food security due to depleted stocks, lack of Home Grown School Meals Programme. Households were employing various coping strategies among them include reduction in the number of meals per day and also lack of diversification. Food consumed at household level was mainly Ugali with pulses. Kakuyuni sample area in the mixed farming zone continued to record high proportion of children at risk of malnutrition with 8% of all children sampled falling at the at risk cohort The proportion of children under five years at risk of malnutrition was 0.3 percent higher than the long term mean. Page 14 of 18

15 5.3 Coping Strategies Coping Strategy Index 3.0 COPING STRATEGY INDEX FOR HOUSEHOLDS IN KILIFI COUNTY 2.0 INDEX JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC LTM ( ) YEAR Figure 13: Coping Strategy Index for Kilifi County The county Coping Strategy Index (CSI) increased by 29 percent in the month under review as compared to the previous month to 1.8 This indicates there was increased food shortage in households across the county. The cash cropping/dairy zone recorded the lowest CSI of 0.5 while the highest CSI was recorded in the livestock farming zone (Ganze, Kaloleni and Magarini sub counties) with a score of 4.5 an indication that food shortage was high in the ranching zones. The more prevalent coping mechanisms employed by households that faced food shortage in October were; Reduced quantity of food consumed by adults to ensure children get enough to eat Reduction in number and meal per day Borrowing food from friends and relatives. Reduction in number and meal rations. Opting for less preferred or cheaper meals. Purchase of food on credit terms Removing children from school to help in search for food Page 15 of 18

16 6.0 CURRENT ONGOING INTERVENTION MEASURES 6.1 Food- aid Completed first tranche of livestock offtake (570 heads of cattle) for slaughter in Ganze and Kaloleni sub counties. Water trucking to Ganze and Magarini sub counties for affected villages, schools doing National exam by County Government through water department. Food distribution by the national and county governments in Ganze, Kaloleni and Magarini sub counties also to schools doing KCPE and KCSE. Supplementary/ Therapeutic feeding program in health facilities by County Department of Health/UNICEF and Kenya Red Cross. Livestock feed supplementation distribution in Bamba ward in Ganze sub county, Kayafungo and Mwanamwinga wards in Kaloleni sub county. Distribution of water treatment tabs to areas of Bamba ward in Ganze sub county, Kayafungo and Mwanamwinga wards in Kaloleni sub-county. 6.2 Non-food aid Households targeting data collection for livestock feed supplementation in Bamba ward- Ganze sub county, Kayafungo and Mwanamwinga wards in Kaloleni sub county by NDMA and county government. Vaccination and deworming in Bamba, Kayafungo and Mwanamwinga ward. Cash transfers to the elderly, orphaned and vulnerable children by National government. Cash for Asset by GoK/ WFP, World Vision, Kenya Red Cross Society and NDMA in Ganze, Kaloleni, Malindi, Rabai and Magarini Sub Counties. Community sensitization on conservational Agriculture by County Department of Agriculture and FAO. Promotion on African Bird Eye Chill (ABEC) projects by ASDSP and Equator Kenya Limited. Launch and support cluster irrigation projects in Malindi and Magarini sub counties (purchase and distribution of pumps). Promotion of beekeeping in the county by Livestock department, Kenya Red Cross Society (KRCS), KAPAP. Extension of water pipeline across the sub counties by county department of water and KRCS. Growth monitoring of children under five at village level by Community Health Workers. Community capacity building on appropriate infant and young child feeding practices (mother-to-mother support groups) by county department of Health, Plan International and World Vision. Promotion of maternal and child health in the county by Share progamme (International Medical corps) in collaboration with the county department of health. Human Disease Surveillance across the county by County Health Department. Page 16 of 18

17 7.0 EMERGING ISSUES 7.1 Food Security Prognosis Following increased cases of livestock fatalities, livestock keepers are losing a livelihoods thus decline in household food security. Following depletion of pasture, increased average distance to water sources and in search for pasture, livestock body condition has deteriorated significantly and fetching poor prices in the market thus reduced purchasing power. Average price for cattle decreased further following poor body condition due to pasture and water stress resulting to unfavorable terms of trade for livestock sellers. Household food security continued declining following minimum income sources as the short rains season delayed and forecasted to be poor. Food prices expected to remain high and record an increase due to demand following the poor performance of the 2016 long rains and a forecast of delayed and poor 2016 short rains. Food shortage at household level expected to increase for the next 9 months. Children at risk of malnutrition expected to increase as schools closed coupled with deteriorated household food security situation. 7.2 INDICATORS WHICH NEED CLOSE MONITORING Nutritional status of the under-fives in Ganze, Kaloleni and Magarini sub counties. Livestock body condition and diseases in Ganze, Magarini, Malindi and Kaloleni sub counties Livestock fatalities due to drought effects of mature animals and calves. Water quality and quantity across the county. Livestock migration into the county, conflicts between crop farmers and livestock keepers in Magarini sub counties. Household food security more so households with vulnerable (HIV/AIDS patients and the elderly) members and more so in Ganze and Magarini and Kaloleni sub counties. Water quality specifically from pans. Scope and intensity of community needing water in the ranching and marginal/mixed farming zones. Impacts of feed supplementation activities carried out in October and on-going. Food prices in the market. Food aid distribution in relation to the county needs. Page 17 of 18

18 8.0 RECOMMENDATIONS Upscale water trucking to Ganze, Kaloleni and Magarini sub counties. Call for more stakeholders support as the demand increases. Urgent upscale of livestock off-take for slaughter as livestock fatalities continued increasing due pasture and water stress in Ganze, Kaloleni, Magarini and Malindi sub counties to boost household food security for the vulnerable which had declined significantly. Commercial off take in Ganze, Sokoke and Adu wards where still cattle body condition is fair to good before further deterioration. Upscale of Livestock feed supplementation as pasture stress increased in in Ganze, Kaloleni, Magarini and Malindi sub counties Distribution of water treatment chemical as water quality at existing water pans continued declining. Food distribution to households with severe food shortages and have low purchasing powers. Desilting of major water pans for maximum harvest during the short rains season (Jila, Ndigiria, bofu, Kaoyeni, Kabaka, Kavunyararo, Adu, Zia Dima). Close monitoring of livestock body condition mostly for mature animals with more than 5 calving. Close monitoring of on use of pasture and water between livestock keepers and crop farmers with an increased focus on co-existence between communities. Distribution of water treatment chemical to areas where households are accessing water from pan whose quality has declined significantly. Need for drilling of emergency boreholes and support on fuel subsidy as pipeline dependency increased. Need for boreholes (Kadzandani, Adu Majengo, Baricho and Marafa) repair and fuel subsides as more households and livestock depended on pipeline for water supply. Livestock disease surveillance as livestock migration was recorded in Ganze and Magarini sub counties in search for pasture and water. Livestock vaccination against Foot and Mouth Disease and NCD which were the diseases recorded across the county. Promotion of small-scale irrigation on high value crops in order contribute to household incomes and diversified household diet. Support mass screening due to increased cases at risk of malnutrition. Formation of health Nutrition working groups at the sub counties for regular updates. Provision of Micronutrients powder to support nutritional requirement as households receiving relief food which largely lack micronutrients. Support to health outreaches to sensitize the community on proper health seeking behavior Pipeline extension to Adu and Bamba wards to cover areas under water stress such as Kamale, Marereni, Jila and Bofu. Page 18 of 18