NATIONAL DROUGHT MANAGEMENT AUTHORITY MANDERA COUNTY DROUGHT EARLY WARNING BULLETIN FOR NOVEMBER 2015

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1 NATIONAL DROUGHT MANAGEMENT AUTHORITY MANDERA COUNTY DROUGHT EARLY WARNING BULLETIN FOR NOVEMBER 2015 NOVEMBER EW PHASE Early Warning Phase Classification LIVELIHOOD ZONE EW PHASE TRENDS Agropastoral Normal Improving Irrigated cropping Normal Improving Pastoral all species Normal Improving Drought Situation & EW Phase Classification Biophysical Indicators Biophysical indicators Above normal rain were received in all parts of the County during the month of November. The 3-month Vegetation Condition index for the County was indicating no drought. All the biophysical indicators are within the expected normal range. Socio economic indicators Milk production and consumption has improved when compared to last month and is above the long term averages. TOT has also improved and it s above expected normal expected range. Browse conditions are good in all parts of county during the reporting month. Pasture condition are good in Western and Southern parts of the county while fair in north. Increased livestock prices witnessed in all parts of the County The body condition of all species of livestock is fair but on improving trend during the month Cases of Cattle deaths due to botulism reported in Mandera East Subcounty. The utilization indicator is within the normal expected range. Floods reported along River daua that resulted in destruction of crops and farms water logged. No out break of human disease has been reported. Biophysical Indicators Value Normal ranges % of average rainfall (Oct Marc) VCI-3month State of Water Sources 3 5 Production indicators Value Normal ranges Livestock Migration Normal Normal Pattern Livestock Body Conditions Milk Production 31.1 >25.2 Livestock deaths (for No No death drought) deaths Crops area planted (%) % of LTA Access Indicators Value Normal ranges Terms of Trade (ToT) 56 >47 Milk Consumption 21.5 >15.3 Water for Households 2 5 Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges MUAC 17.0 <19.3 Coping Strategy Index (CSI)

2 BIO PHYSICAL INDICATORS 1. MEASURING DROUGHT HAZARD 1.1 METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT Actual Rainfall Rains were recieved in all parts of the county during the month of November.The onset of short rains was in the first week of month of October. Mandera South, Lafey, West and Banisa recieved above normal rains. This is normal during this time of the year. 1.2 AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT VEGETATION CONDITION INDEX (VCI) The 3-month Vegetation condition for the County for November was indicating no drought. The 3-monthly Vegetation condition index matrex for the County for November was indicating no droughts as shown below. 2

3 Banisa, north, East, West and Lafey subcounties are all showing moderate VCI while Mandera South Sub County has normal VCI Field Observations (Pasture and Browse Condition) Field Observation: Pasture Pasture condition are good in Western and Southern parts of the county while fair in north and when compared to last month,it has the situation has improved. The available pasture can last for atleast 3months Browse: Browse conditions are good in the entire County and when compared to same month last year, the browse conditions are good, The browse can last for two to three months. The average distance to grazing areas from the main source of water was 3.9Km while that of households access to water was 2.3Km, and when compared to the month of August, the average grazing distance had decreased by 4.4Km as shown in graph below. 3

4 1.3 HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT Water Resource The main water sources for the County were Earth pans, Boreholes, Shallow wells, River Daua and under ground water tanks. All earthpans in the entire county have impounded water that can last for two months. 2.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS 2.1 Livestock production The main livestock reared by the pastoralist are camel, cattle, goats and sheep. Camel & cattle being long term assets while shoats are short term assets/current assets Livestock Ownership Livestock Migration Patterns No migration of livestock reported during the month under review Livestock Body Condition The current body conditions are fair for all livestock species and when compared to last month, the body condition has improved Livestock Diseases Cases of Cattle deaths still reported in Mandera East (Libehia division) during the month under review Milk Production Milk production was 31.1 litres in the month of November and when compared to last month, it increased tremendiousely due to plenty of pasture and browse. The average milk production is above the long term mean as shown in the graph below. 2.2 Rain fed Crop Production Date of Planting and Area planted Stage and Condition of food Crops In Irrigated cropping zone: Floods reported along river which resulted in farms to be water logged and destroyed all crops. In Agro- Pastoral zone, Crops have been planted and are at knee height stage of crop production Harvest No harvest had been witnessed in the entire livelihood zones in the county during the month under review. 4

5 ACCESS INDICATORS 3.1 Livestock Prices 3.1.1Livestock Terms of Trade The current term of trade for the month of November was 56kgs of maize per goats. When compared to last month, it has increased. When compared to long term mean, the average Terms of trade are above LTA Cattle Prices Average cattle price increased from Ksh 12,000/=in October to Ksh in the month of November 2015, the increase in price was attributed to fair body condition. In comparison to the long term mean, the average price was lower by Ksh Goat Prices Average goat price increased from Ksh 3413 to Ksh 3,681 for the month of November. The increase in price is attributed to good market demand and improving body condition due to fair pasture and browse. 5

6 The increased goat price increases the food security of households thus increase the purchasing power of the household as they use goats as daily income. Compared to the long term mean ( ), the average price is within the normal expected range. Agro Pastoral zone recorded the highest average goat price with Ksh 4655 followed by Pastoral all species zone with a goat costing Ksh 3808,and that of Irrigated cropping zone selling at Ksh 2,580 per goat Sheep Average sheep price increased from Ksh 3112/= to Ksh 3, 277/=during the month of November as shown in the table above. Compared to long term mean, the average price of sheep was lower than the long term by Ksh319 during the month of November The highest average price was noted at Pastoral all species zone with ksh.3492/= followed by agro pastoral zone with 3439/= and Irrigated cropping zone at Ksh2900/= Camel Prices The average camel price increased from Ksh to ksh during the month of November The highest average price was achieved in Pastoral all species folloed by Agro pastoral livelihood zone. On the other hand, the average camel price was within the expected normal range as shown in the table below : Milk consumption and Prices Milk consumption has increased in comparison to the month of November The total number of litres consumed was 21.5litres while total produced was 31.1.litres on average for all the sampled sentinel sites.the average milk price was Ksh 50 per 750 ml bottle during the reporting month. 3.2 Price of cereals and other food products Maize The average maize price during the month of November was Ksh66per kg. Compared to the preceding month of October, the average price slightly increased. When compared to the long term mean price, the average price was within the normal the expected mean. 6

7 The Graph below gives an illustrational view of the trend Posho (Maize Meal) The observed average Posho price during the month was Ksh 82per Kg.When compared to last month,the average price has increased by Ksh 5/= In Comparison to the long term mean, the average price was lower by ksh2/= Income Livestock income The main source of income for all livelihood zones during the month under review was casual labour and sale of livestock. 7

8 3.5.3 Casual Labor The average daily wage from sampled divisions was Ksh 396 but from general observations it ranged between 300/= to 500/= per day. Compared to the preceding month, the average daily wage has increased by 38 The highest average income was reported in the Agro pastoral zone followed by Pastoral all species and irrigated cropping zone respectively 4.0 UTILIZATION INDICATORS 4.1 Health and Nutrition Status MUAC The percentage of children (<5yrs) at risk of malnutrition based on mid upper arm circumference (MUAC<135mm) for the month of November was 17.0%. when Compared to the previous month, it had decreased by 3.5% When compared to the long term, the average mean was lowerr by 2.3%. According to sample areas, Takaba division reported the highest percentage of children at risk of malnutrition while the lowest was noted in Fino division. 4.2 Health No outbreak of human disease was reported in entire County during the month under review 4.3 Flagged Areas. Current Intervention Food Aid There was General Food Distribution with a total of 39,994 during the month under review FFA food distribution of beneficiaries during the month under review. The regular supplementary feeding by SCI and IRK supported by UNICEF and WFP continued benefitting households in over 50 selected sites. Non-Food Aid PAH is also supporting Nutritional programme in Mandera East and Lafey sub Counties. 5.3 Other coping strategies Provision of relief food and supplementary feeding for the vulnerable groups of the communities in the divisions still remained as the top most coping strategy. A huge section of the population continued to rely on less preferred food with and also borrowing from relatives and friends 8

9 6.0 Recommendations to CSG Disbursement of Drought Contingency funds for resilience activities during this normal early warning phase - Action NDMA and other octors There was need to support farmers affected by floods along the irrigated cropping zone County Govt and other actors Vaccination and mass treatment against the suspected cases of diseases in Mandera East sub counties -Action County Government and other actors Capacity building and training of comminities on Disaster Risk Reduction and drought cycle management during the normal phase Action NDMA and other actors Recruitment of more police reservist in each location of the County in order to strengthen security County Government and National Goverment Promote peaceful coexistence and conduct peace dialogue meeting between communities Action County and National Government Support social mobilisation, public education and distribution of WASH items and pur for the affected areas of Elwak town. Intensify the post conflict engagement initiatives among the communities and enhance capacity building for the Sub-county Peace Committees (SPCs) to promote early warning information across all the sub-counties-provincial administration. 9