Climate change and Food security in Brazil: Evaluation

Transcription

1 Climate change and Food security in Brazil: Evaluation of vulnerability, adaptability and mitigation Eduardo Delgado Assad Agricultural Informatics Colloque France-Brésil 2012 Des recherches pour l'agronomie, la biodiversité et la santé 17 octobre 2012, Agropolis International, Montpellier

2 EVOLUTION OF BRAZILIAN MITIGATION TARGETS NATIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY (PNMC) DECREE 7.390/2010 Sanctioned S dright after COP-15, when the Brazilian government announced voluntary GHG emissions reduction targets, later included in the Copenhagen Accord. Sets up a reduction target between 36.1 and 38.9% in relation to the baseline projected to The baseline was calculated using data from the Second National Emissions Inventory released in Establishes sectoral mitigation and adaptation plans Defines the National Climate Change Fund (Climate Fund) as main financial instrument Regulated by Decree no /2010. Colloque France-Brésil 2012 Des recherches pour l'agronomie, la biodiversité et la santé 17 octobre 2012, Agropolis International, Montpellier

3 EVOLUTION OF BRAZILIAN MITIGATION TARGETS NATIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY DECREE 7.390/2010 According to Decree no /2010, the revised National Climate Change Plan will be composed of the following sectoral mitigation plans: Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Deforestation in the Legal Amazon (PPCDAm) Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Deferestation and Wildfires in the Cerrado (PPCerrado) Ten Year Energy Plan (PDE, from ) Low L Carbon Agriculture Plan (Plan ABC), and Emissions Reduction in the Iron and Steel Industry. Colloque France-Brésil 2012 Des recherches pour l'agronomie, la biodiversité et la santé 17 octobre 2012, Agropolis International, Montpellier

4 EVOLUTION OF BRAZILIAN MITIGATION TARGETS NATIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY DECREE 7.390/2010 Emissions projections in 2020: millions tco2-eq Reduction target: Art. 6: actions will be implemented in order to reduce between milhões tco2-eq and milhões tco2-eq of the total projected emissions millions tco2-eq 36,1% millions tco2-eq 38,9% Colloque France-Brésil 2012 Des recherches pour l'agronomie, la biodiversité et la santé 17 octobre 2012, Agropolis International, Montpellier

5 Df Deforestation tti rate in the Amazon (thousands of Km 2 /ha) Lowest deforestation rate since 2005 Colloque France-Brésil 2012 Des recherches pour l'agronomie, la biodiversité et la santé 17 octobre 2012, Agropolis International, Montpellier

6 Reducing emissions in the Amazon CO2 (million tons per year) projected emission For 2020 Reduction equivalent to 67% of projected emissions for 2020

7 Related issues, but diferent nature Inventory Commitment by the UNFCCC (Specific Guidelines) Each four years Estimates commitment made under Decree 7.390/2010 year Monitoring Actions associated with the Sectorial Plans?

8 Sectoral Plans In preparation: - Transportation; - Industry; - Mining; i - Health; - Aquaculture & Fisheries

9 Monitoring and estimate Coordination Monitoring Centers Monitoring Centers cerrados Energy - Embrapa; Trans Industry - Unicamp; portation -Agriculture clima network. Mining Health Aquaculture & Fisheries Focused on adaptation Colloque France-Brésil 2012 Des recherches pour l'agronomie, la biodiversité et la santé 17 octobre 2012, Agropolis International, Montpellier

10 Impacts and trends Colloque France-Brésil 2012 Des recherches pour l'agronomie, la biodiversité et la santé 17 octobre 2012, Agropolis International, Montpellier

11 Tmax (Precis A2) 2010 media [⁰C] Colloque France-Brésil 2012 Des recherches pour l'agronomie, la biodiversité et la santé 17 octobre 2012, Agropolis International, Montpellier

12 Tmax (Precis A2) 2020 media [⁰C] Colloque France-Brésil 2012 Des recherches pour l'agronomie, la biodiversité et la santé 17 octobre 2012, Agropolis International, Montpellier

13 Tmax (Precis A2) 2030 media [⁰C] Colloque France-Brésil 2012 Des recherches pour l'agronomie, la biodiversité et la santé 17 octobre 2012, Agropolis International, Montpellier

14 Tmax (Precis A2) 2040 media [⁰C] Colloque France-Brésil 2012 Des recherches pour l'agronomie, la biodiversité et la santé 17 octobre 2012, Agropolis International, Montpellier

15 Porto de Carvalho, José Ruy ; Assad, Eduardo Delgado ; PINTO, Hilton Silveira Kalman filter and correction of the temperatures estimated by PRECIS model. Atmospheric Research (Print), v. x, p. 1-2, Colloque France-Brésil 2012 Des recherches pour l'agronomie, la biodiversité et la santé 17 octobre 2012, Agropolis International, Montpellier

16 Colloque France-Brésil 2012 Des recherches pour l'agronomie, la biodiversité et la santé 17 octobre 2012, Agropolis International, Montpellier

17 Carvalho, J.R. et all (2012) Atmospheric Research. Submited Colloque France-Brésil 2012 Des recherches pour l'agronomie, la biodiversité et la santé 17 octobre 2012, Agropolis International, Montpellier

18 Climate risks Analysis Colloque France-Brésil 2012 Des recherches pour l'agronomie, la biodiversité et la santé 17 octobre 2012, Agropolis International, Montpellier

19 Clamate risks zoning Kc Evapotranspiration Reproduction precipitation Inicial Soil water

20 Methodology Daily precipitation Data base ETP Ten days average Ano Valor 1 ISNA(Ano1) 2 ISNA(Ano2) N ISNA(AnoN) N Anos Water balance + Frequential analysis ISNA = ETR/ETM Maps of ISNA Variables data Planting date soil Cicle size X rain stations Sarra model from CIRAD

21 f ISNA (x) definition P Isna= 65% ª phenological phase days

22 Climatic change impacts in Brazil agriculture Simulation of 8 differents IPCC models, with 3 in downscale Five crops (Rice, bean, soybean, wheat, corn) Pastures Period of simulation Colloque France-Brésil 2012 Des recherches pour l'agronomie, la biodiversité et la santé 17 octobre 2012, Agropolis I t ti l M t lli

23

24

25

26

27

28

29 Cotton Rice Sugarcane Bean Mayze Soybean table synthesis Brazil Base Year 2010 PESSIMISTIC OPTIMISTIC CROP Summer Rainfed Wheat Planted Area 2009 (ha) 2020 (ha) (%) 2030 (ha) (%) 2020 (ha) (%) 2030 (ha) (%) , , , , , , , season , , , ,5 Autumn season , , , ,8 Summer season Autumn season , ,2

30 Adaptation Strategy Colloque France-Brésil 2012 Des recherches pour l'agronomie, la biodiversité et la santé 17 octobre 2012, Agropolis International, Montpellier

31 Expression of genes drought tolerant P58 (BR-16 with gene) 2.5% soil moisture BR-16 without gen 2.5% soil moisture

32 november 2010 november 2070 November de 2070 with reduced water consumption in 20% biotech strategy November days cicle

33 Brazilian agriculture has experienced a continuous increase in grain production, but with a limited increase in cropped area, which is attributed to technology adoption. This scenario has resulted in an increase in GHG emissions. production nds of tonnes) Grain (thousan Grains Area Produção de grãos Área plantada com grãos Crop pped area (in thousa nds of hectares) Mt CO 2 eq N2O CH4 CO2 Production and planted area with grain crops from 1990 to 2011 Emissions of CO 2, CH 4 and N 2 O in tonnes of CO 2 equivalents by Brazilian agriculture for 1990, 1994, 2000 and 2005, according to the Second Brazilian Inventory of GHG Emissions and Removals (MCTI, 2011).

34 Brazilian GHG inventory for the agriculture sector (2005) A Methane emissions Nitrous oxide emissions represented about 35 % of the overall emissions from Brazilian agriculture Other 29.5% Agriculture 70.5% B Nitrous oxide emissions Entheric fermentation 90.0 % Managed manure 5,7 % Rice crop 3.3 % Burning of crop residues 1,0 % indirect emissions 31.7% Agriculture 87.2% Animal excretion on pastures 45.5 % Synthetic fertilizers 6.5 % Other Harvest residues 6.1 % 12.8% Animal manure 3.4 % ssions Direct emi Managed manure 2.7 % Organic soils 2.7 % Burning of crop residues 15% 1.5 GHG estimates are based on IPCC 1996 guidelines (Tiers 1 and 2) especially for the N 2 O inventory.

35 Research are under way to develop emission factors for the different croppingenvironments in Brazil. Issues under evaluation Arable crops Cattle ranching Biofuel production N Fertilizer Grazing animals Vinasse from excreta deposited Legume species bioethanol on pasture production from IPCC direct EF = 1.25% IPCC direct EF = 2.0% sugarcane Investigated GHGs N 2 O N 2 O CH 4

36 onte :Bruno Alves Embrapa Agrobiologia N 2 O fluxes measurement

37 Emission factor of N 2 O from Brazilian agricultural l systems Direct emission factor of N 2 O obtained in Brazil General mean and confidence interval 0.30 % ( %) Direct Emission i Factor recommended in the IPCC 2006 guidelines 1% (0.3 3%) Data from Embrapa Agrobiologia, Soybean, Wheat and Rice and Bean Centers Land use Evaluation period 1 (dias) N-Fertilizer (source - kg N ha -1 ) Soil type EF based on reference area (%) Londrina, PR Red Latosol Maize, SP rotation (yr 1, 2) 136/141 Urea /0.04 Maize, zero tillage,zt)(yr 1, 2) 136/141 Urea /0.08 Passo Fundo, RS Wheat ZT rotation 137 Urea Soybean/wheat ZT (yr 1, 2) 1 year Fert+Res 0.56/ /116 Soybean/wheat PC (yr 1, 2) 1 year Fert+Res Dark Red 0.47/ /133 Latosol Maize/wheat ZT 1 year Fert+Res Maize/wheat CT 1 year Fert+Res Sorghun/wheat ZT 1 year Fert+Res Sorghun/wheat CT 1 year Fert+Res et es Santo Antônio de Goiás, GO Maize ZT rotation 140 Urea Dark Red Highland rice ZT (yr 1, 2) 133/132 Urea /0.14 Latosol Irrigated common bean ZT 149 Urea Seropédica, RJ Maize CT 120 Urea Maize CT 120 Urea 100 Red-Yellow 0.35 Maize CT 120 Urea 150 Argisol 0.33 Elephant grass 180 Urea Elephant grass 180 Urea Elephant grass 180 Urea Elephant grass 180 Urea onte :Bruno Alves Embrapa Agrobiologia

38 N 2 O emissions derived from cattle excreta in pastures IPCC: 2% of N-excreta is lost as N 2 O onte :Bruno Alves Embrapa Agrobiologia

39 Soil N 2 O emissions from cattle urine and 2 faeces Preliminary data indicates that the N 2 O direct emission factor for urine is between 1.2 to 1.4 % and for faeces it is between 0.1 to 0.2 %. N 2 O-EF1 from Tier 1 of IPCC guidelines is 2 % of the total N in cattle excreta. For the Brazilian savannah region that concentrates about 40 % of cattle herd, the weighed average emission factor would vary from 0.5 to 0.7 %, assuming no more than 60% of excreted N is in the urine form. onte :Bruno Alves Embrapa Agrobiologia

40 Quantification of soil C stocks Shovelometrics Trenches 120 cm depth The soil density must be measured accurately to correct for differential compaction cm nte : Robert Boddey Embrapa Agrobiologia

41 Livestock and Grasslands Pilot 25/08/2012 Until now 170 points sampled Including native vegetation Pastures, CPI and FCPI. Projection 250 points Crop pasture integration Forest crop pasture integration

42 Carbon stocks in soils of different farming systems in the South, Southeast and Midwest (0-30 cm). Brazil Region Veg. degraded Pasture Nt Natural pasture not degraded PCI PCFI...C (t ha 1 )... South Southest midwest

43

44 Methane collection from dairy cattle

45 Methane emission factors for beef cattle (Nelore) in the Southeast of Brazil (tropical climate) CH 4 g/d* CH 4 kg/animal Category Weight % of total Winter Spring Summer Fall year herd Bulls 500 > Cows Heifers (7 months to 2 years) Hif Heifers (23 (2-3 years) Males (7 months to years) Males (2-3 years) Males (3-4 years) Males (4 years ) 450> Mean

46 CO2 emission i in differents systems Fonte :Embrapa agrobiologia

47 Agricultural Management Recovery of Degradeted Pastures Crop Livestock Integration Area Mitigation Cost Years Million MTCO²eq Billion ha US$ , No Tillage 8, Biological Fixation of Nitrogen Reforestation ti Total Reduction of CO ² emission, area considered and cost of mitigation activities until 2020 Adapted from ASSAD, E. D. & BARIONI, L. G. Embrapa Informática

48 Typical example of adaptation Goat Tree Thanks