Vulnerability and Impact Assessment for Risk Reduction

Transcription

1 Vulnerability and Impact Assessment for Risk Reduction Inputs from EU, Iberian Peninsula and Portuguese reality Rodrigo Maia High Level Meeting on Nacional Drought Policy, 12 th March 2013

2 2 European Drought Management Policy

3 Water Policy at EU Level The European Water Framework Directive 2000/60 (WFD) Main focus: Integrated Water Resources Management at the river basin level, reflecting hydrological realities regardless of administrative and political boundaries. Among the EU27 Member States do exist: 110 River basin districts 40 of which international 3

4 Water Framework Directive Assures that environmental quality objectives and standards are established on a common basis throughout the Community; Provides an overall framework within which Community, national and regional authorities can develop integrated and coherent water policies; Promotes and envisages joint management in international river basins; Guides Member States to develop a River Basin Management Plan (RBMP) for each river basin district lying on its territory, aiming to achieve a single international RBMP within each shared river basin; Creates the possibility to complement the River Basin Management Plans through specific programs and management Plans, at sub-basin, sectorial or problem level (ex. Drought Management Plans). 4

5 5 Water Scarcity & Droughts in European Union (1) The Water Scarcity and Droughts initiative was set up within the CIS (Common Implementation Strategy) Structure in In 2007 was presented a Communication on Drought & Water Scarcity to the Commission [COM (2007) 414 final], enhancing the importance of the development of: a drought observatory; early warning systems; drought management plans. The most recent (2012, 4 th ) follow up report refers that still there is a gap on the coherence in response particularly at the EU level, calling namely for a need to a coherent methodology for assessing Europe s vulnerability to drought and water scarcity and to identify environmental, social and economic co-determinants of drought impacts

6 Water Scarcity & Droughts in European Union (2) The most recent (2012, 4 th ) follow up report refers that: The development of Drought Management Plans has progressed but their implementation as well as their integration with RBMPs and other planning documents remains limited. EU wide drought indicators are now available on a preliminary basis for precipitation, soil moisture, vegetation response and a combined drought indicator targeted to agricultural drought. Further developments are required to test and improve the indicator set, to add further data from national and river basin level, to test and implement medium to long range drought forecasting and to perform hazard and risk analysis. Still there is a gap on the coherence in response particularly at the EU level, calling namely for a need to a coherent methodology for assessing Europe s vulnerability to drought and water scarcity and to identify environmental, social and economic co-determinants of drought impact 6

7 EU Drought Management Plans Framework 7 (DEWFORA, 2012)

8 Setting the scene: water scarcity and drought in the EU Conditions of water scarcity in EU Vulnerability 8 (ETC/ICM, EEA, 2012)

9 Setting the scene: water scarcity and drought in the EU Main drought events in Europe of the last decade (Adapted from EEA, 2010)

10 10 Water management in Iberian Shared river basins

11 Characterization of the Iberian Peninsula 5 shared river basins (Minho, Lima, Douro, Tejo and Guadiana) that cover more than 45% of the Iberian territory, 21% of that share corresponding to Portugal 70% of total water use on those shared river basins does occur in Spain 2/3 of the existing storage capacity is located in Spain 11

12 The Albufeira Convention Convention on Co-operation for Portuguese-Spanish River Basins Protection and Sustainable Use, usually referenced as the Albufeira Convention (1998), aiming at: i. solving the 1964 and 1968 still active Conventions mutually recognised limitations (mostly concerned with sharing of hydro-electric potential and the bordering river stretches) ii. iii. defining the framework of bilateral co-operation for freshwater and groundwater protection as also of the related aquatic ecosystems and also for sustainable use of the 5 shared rivers watershed resources. introducing a basin-based water management and a decisionmaking process in compliance with the WFD, framed on coordinated River (sub-) Basin Management Plans, one per 12 country.

13 Drought planning and management Portugal An early drought warning and management system is being developed by the Portuguese Environmental Agency (APA) where a specific set of indicators is being developed. No Drought Managements Plans exist. Spain Droughts Management Plans for each of the Spanish River Basin Districts were approved in 2007 There is a supporting indicator system and specific programme of measures at the river basin level. A National Drought Observatory provides week drought reports information to all Water Administrations There is a reported mismatch between the drought alert levels obtained : (i) from the results of the reference (pluviometric) stations established by the Albufeira Convention, and (ii) from the results of the Spanish supporting indicator system. 13

14 Indicators system and transboundary agreements The correspondent indicators should be common and/or homogenized between both countries. Results of reference (pluviometric) stations Results of the Spanish supporting indicator system 14 The Alert and Emergency situations (that shall correspond to the definition of situations of exception for the application of the flow regime defined in the Albufeira Convention) are more significant with the application of the indexes defined by the Convention That shall be taken into account by the two countries in terms of coordinated management of drought situations

15 15 Drought Management in Portugal

16 Portuguese Case: Droughts Management experience In Portugal, drought situations were traditionally managed on a reactive response approach (emergency situations) 2005 s Drought Situation a special commission was created to monitor and implement appropriate mitigation measures for drought effects minimization; Main conclusions at the end of the drought: The creation of an integrated Drought Early warning and management system; The establishment of a reliable monitoring system of water sources availabilities (surface and groundwater sources) as well as the estimation of the main water uses for different sectors (volumes and monthly distribution); Wider promotion of Water Efficient use. 16

17 System of Prediction and Management of Droughts Goal: To enable managers and users of water resources with an instrument that allows them to anticipate the potential impacts of drought situations, in order to promote the implementation of mitigation measures. 17

18 System of Prediction and Management of Droughts Conceptual frame Drought assessment Evaluation of drought severity taking into account the socio-economic impacts; Evaluation of the (monthly) current situation and outlook of future evolution trends (based on appropriate scenarios and simulation of hydrological conditions); Elaboration of maps, expressing, at the spatial level, the distribution of drought severity. Drought management Identification of the main measures to be adopted in normal, alert and crisis situations, and articulation of the entities responsible for drought management; Facilitation and fostering of the application of measures that lead to a more efficient use of water; Improvement of the information and public participation. 18

19 System of Prediction and Management of Droughts Evaluation of drought socioeconomic impact Basic concepts in the determination of the socioeconomic impact of the drought are: Agriculture and cattle raising Variation of the agricultural production and corresponding economic return, compared to a reference year Urban water supply Costs of adopting extraordinary measures to offset eventual deficits, absent in normal situations 19

20 Determination of the aggregate socioeconomic index Agricultural sector Sum of the socioeconomic impacts obtained by agricultural subsector and comparison with the total income of the agricultural sector (socioeconomic impact for agriculture at the Analysis Unit level). Regional System of Prediction and Management of Droughts Final aggregation of economic impacts of the different sectors, at the Analysis Unit and/or river basin level, in comparison with the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the area. Prevision Oct 2005 (P50) Prevision March 2005 (P50) Prevision April 2005 (P50) Situation September Regional aggregation scale (% PIB) Normal 0 to 2% Mild drought 2 to 3% Severe drought 3 to 5% Extreme drought 5 to 100% Results can be used for the identification of measures for drought prevention and/or mitigation.

21 Climate Change Adaptation The WFD, specially through the process of elaboration of River Basin management plans beginning in 2009, enables the integration of climate change effects considerations and elaboration of regional policies and practical implementation of measures. At the Iberian Peninsula level, both countries are addressing climate change: In Portugal, it was prepared the National Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation (ENAAC, 2010); In addition, Spain already prepared a National Adaptation Plan to Climate Change (PNACC, 2006). 21

22 PT National Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation 22 Strategic Objectives Reduction of the pressure on the hydric environment Improvement the safety of water availability Risk Management Deepened knowledge Specific Objectives Water demand management (redution of the dependence on water availability) Water bodies and ecosystems protection Improvement of planning and management processes of water resources Strengthen the catchment infrastructure, regulation and adduction Risk Assessment of different natures Promotion of protective measure programs Implementation of monitoring and early warning systems Public awareness Strengthen of monitoring and analysis systems Assessment of resulting risks of climate change impacts Analysis of feasibility of possible adaptation measures Review of methodologies for analysis and design of systems and infrastructures Public awareness and technical training (Oliveira, 2011)

23 23 Further inputs for risk reduction

24 Science /Policy & Risk Reduction Monitoring Forecasting Mitigation/ Adaptation measures Drought Vulnerability Drought impact assessment Science Risk reduction Policy Decrease of economic losses and society stress

25 To link research to stakeholders Make compatible the use of credible and reliable methods (climate science/ research), with the obtainment of relevant results (decision making). Involve directly key stakeholders in research and studies processes; Ensure that the methods used and the information obtained are understandable and accepted as reliable by decision makers; Guide research for obtainment of relevant information (e.g. appropriate scales and time steps); Propose improvements to better support climate research (e.g. data collection). 25

26 Vulnerability and Impact Assessment for Risk Reduction Inputs from EU, Iberian Peninsula and Portuguese reality Rodrigo Maia High Level Meeting on Nacional Drought Policy, 12 th March 2013