Analysis of the Evolution of the Agricultural Production in Romania

Transcription

1 Analysis of the Evolution of the Agricultural Production in Romania Prof. Constantin ANGHELACHE PhD. Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest Artifex University of Bucharest Alexandru URSACHE PhD. Student Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest Zoica DINCĂ (NICOLA) Ph.D Student Artifex University of Bucharest/ Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest Andreea Gabriela BALTAC Ph.D Student Artifex University of Bucharest/ Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest Assoc. prof. Emanuela IONESCU Ph.D Artifex University of Bucharest/ Abstract This paper describes the evolution of the agricultural production in Romania. The authors focused on the two major components of agriculture, vegetal production and animal breeding. The results of the analyses are presented as conclusions, visual instruments are used for presenting data, and the last section of the article presents some suggestions to further strengthen the development of this sector. Comparatively with the year 2010, in 2011 the vegetal production for cereal grains increased as a result of a positive climatic situation. The last years, excepting the year 2011, show a decrease of the productivity at the level of the vegetal sector. The overall figures for the year 2012 are indicating a decrease of the production, under the negative impact of the draught. But the year 2013 recorded a substantial recovery as a consequence of a very good agricultural year. Key words: production, vegetal, animal, expenses, capitalization 1. The production of the vegetal sector First of all, the production decrease is a result of the diminishing of the cultivated surfaces, for all the cereals categories. As a consequence of the floods or the impossibility to do the irrigations (the fact that the national system of irrigations has been destroyed in haste is showing now the consequences), the point has been reached where only medium sized crops per hectare are achieved, bellow the fertility of the soils of our country. 78

2 Although the efficiency in agriculture was better the situations when the agricultural expenses get covered by the amounts received from the valorisation of the obtained production were quite rare. The structure of the production value of the agriculture branch in ,90% 30,80% 66,30% Vegetal production Animal producttion Agricultural services Data source: The National Institute of Statistics The structure of the arable surface in ,80% 87,20% Cultivated surface Surface left t unsownn Data source: MAPDR 79

3 Territorially speaking, according to the data published by the National Institute of Statistics, it is resulting that decreases of the surfaces cultivated with fall cereals in 2009/2010 have been recorded in districts such Constanţa, Timiş, Tulcea, Giurgiu, Teleorman, Brăila, Dolj, taking the advantage of very good conditions for agriculture. To point out that the submitted data are referring to the decreases as for the wheat and rye cultures only. The increases of surfaces cultivated with other plants did not cover the submitted decreases, which leads to the conclusion that significant surfaces of agricultural land remained un-laboured. The average production achieved at stalky cereals and rape, for the thousand tons Culture * Wheat, rye and triticale 4464,1 2515,9 7968,4 7483,8 5633,2 3146,8 7313,2 5287,1 5975,1 5862,0 4877,2 5914,1 Fall barley 663,9 236,2 783,4 579,6 337,1 231,9 577,1 569,2 571,3 759,0 498,1 763,2 Fall two-row barley 183,0 48,8 205,8 123,6 103,7 106,6 230,9 254,6 260,5 310,2 201,9 312,4 Spring two-row barley 313,5 255,9 478,6 376,0 332,2 192,9 401,4 320,8 371,4 155,1 170,6 370,2 Oat 327,4 323,1 447,1 377,5 346,9 251,6 382,0 267,7 260,7 81,0 176,0 265,3 Oil rape 35,9 8,1 98,7 147,6 175,1 361,5 673,0 573,5 623,4 748,6 146,5 657,3 Data source: MAPDR *) provisional data by In order to emphasize the development of the agricultural activity in Romania during the year 2013, it is self-explanatory to show that in October 2013 there were only 69.7% achieved out of the total forecasted ploughing works. The situation was a little bit better as far as the private agricultural sector is concerned, where these ploughing works counted for 79.5% from the total surface The production of the zoo technic sector The livestock recorded decreases in the sector of bovine and porcine which, in 2011, counted for million bovine, respectively million porcine, but also increases for the sector of ovine and goats where a number of million heads has been recorded in The years 2012 and 2013 did not emphasized spectacular changes as far as the evolution of the livestock is concerned. In 2013, the private sector held 98.5% of the ovine and goats stock, 97.8% of the bovine stock and 88.2% of the porcine stock. 1 Biji, M., Lilea, E., Roşca, E., Vătui, M. (2010) - Statistica pentru economişti Editura Economică, Bucureşti 80

4 The situation is not satisfactory if taking into account the fact that, at the level of the population households, which practically hold the weight in the frame of the zoo technic sector, the livestock keeps on being a low one for all the animal species. In order to get a more realistic picture the sector level, we should add that during December and even January the level of slaughtering was superior to the previous years for all the animal categories 2. Because of the inadequate foddering possibilities the zoo technic sector recorded in 2013 average productions bellow the known levels during the decades 8 and 9 of the XX century, both in the case of the state sector and the private one. As a consequence of this evolution and the very low average productions, the total animal production kept on decreasing from one year to another, up to the low productions of the year 2011 although there is a modification of the trend of the evolution curve in 2012 and the first ten months of Even if several hypotheses have been issued, some of them quite fictional, the question mark on how comes that Romania became an epidemiological isle in the ocean of the peaceful and respected neighbouring countries keeps on persisting. We shall get the answer some time later on but certainly this will be an amazing one. 3. Is the agriculture in a deadlock? The submitted data are underlining a dark picture of the agriculture development in our country. The fact that, under the circumstances of the present economic crisis, the crops cannot cover the level of the production expenses is an obvious fact. The immediate effect of such a situation will consist of the diminishing of the cultivated agricultural surfaces and livestock. In these conditions, Romania, although a country of high agricultural potential, became depended on the imports of basic agricultural products. The subsidies are running up-side down while, after adhering to he European Union, by January 1st, 2007, the agriculture is taking advantage of support only for the average production of the last five pre-adhesion years, meaning for almost 30-35% of the previous capacity of the agricultural production. The only positive fact might be that we shall have ecological agriculture, as required by the adhesion documents. I do consider that, although the fact that here we face enough external interest, at least of economical nature, to consider as to the collapse 2 Anghelache, C-tin (2013). România Starea economică sub povara efectelor crizei, Editura Economică, Bucureşti. See also Anghelache, C-tin (2012). România Starea economică in criză perpetuă, Editura Economică, Bucureşti 81

5 of the Romanian agriculture, is quite obvious, the authorities from our country should not adopt the same position. On the contrary, starting from the postulate that the agriculture must remain one of the basic branches of the material production, it is compulsory that urgent steps meant to stop the decline, to save and strengthen it are to be taken. Such a target cannot be hit, by any means, is similar steps are reinforced view the outcomes recorded as a consequence of the privatization for the sake of privatization and the lack of realistic and substantial programmes to support this sector. In this respect, I have in mind the great concern, shown up mainly during the period , in the direction of liquidating the former IAS, in fact, the very last nucleons which might have produce, under somehow reasonable agro-technical conditions, providing that an adequate economic policy would have apply with the purpose to save and strengthen this sector. Under the circumstances, the priority for the Romanian agriculture is not the alteration of the Law no. 18/1991 in the sense of increasing the surfaces for which certain persons could be to be put in possession of land, taking into account that to the extent the land will remained un-laboured, the ownership on the land of one or another individual is of no economical relevance any more. The priority should go to those steps which, by leading to a real launching of the overall Romanian economy, would allow the normal action of the laws of the market economy and, first of all, to a correct connection between demand and offer. This is the only context in which the specific steps meant to stimulate and develop the agricultural sector would lead to remunerating pay outcomes which, along with the ancestral love for the land, would motivate the agricultural producer and consolidate the vital significance of this sector within the national economy frame. Certainly, this kind of real steps meant to provide economic launching have absolutely nothing to do with the lack of economic content of certain phenomena, fetishized by means of the game with statistical indicators ad indices. For instance, the inflation rate is sometimes artificially diminished also because of the fact that the financial sources of the population are extremely low. This is why the prices of the main goods at the basis of the calculation of the index of the consuming price of the population did not change depending on the correlation demand-offer but depending on the correlation offer-financial sources available with the population. Since, obviously, within this second binomial the financial sources being very scarce and the normal living requirements unable to be entirely satisfied, 82

6 that is a low consumption demand, the level of a number of prices had, consequently, to be maintained and, for some cases, even slightly reduced. As regards the agricultural sector, significantly in this respect was the price achieved on the market for wheat, within the period which, although under the level of the production costs of the farmers, obliged to either reduce the cultivated surfaces or to transfer the lands they are owning against very cheap prices, has been particularly high for the producers from the milling and bakery industry 3. Imports of wheat, at speculative prices, have been resorted to which jeopardized the domestic market, generating the increase of the prices. Nowadays there are delays in respect of finalizing the projects and steps requested by the European Union in order to allow the Romanian farmers receive financial support in the field of the agricultural production. Meantime, a series of actions required as regards the achievement of the traditional production will be not fulfilled and, therefore, this sector would diminish quantity wise. As a conclusion, we can appreciate that the agriculture, one of the main branches of the national economy, the one which not to many years ago contributed to the achievement of the Romanian exports, reached a very low level in The year 2013, when the unfavourable meteorological conditions did not occur again, allowed a rehabilitation of the agriculture, as laboured surface, granted subsidiaries and achieved crops. 4. Non-utilized or of lost control levers In the country which used to achieve constantly good crops, even if not record ones, the agriculture is showing now very slim performances. We have to make this excursion, although after entering into the European Union there are different data to face, in order to state out that we reached this situation because of the fact the over the twenty three years passed from 1990 on, the agriculture has been neglected. In this field of activity, the achievement of productions in, at least medium conditions is out of question. The possibility to apply irrigation is completely missing for the most part of the country. The applications of fertilizers, insecticides and pesticides diminished as much as possible. The agricultural works are carried on with difficulty since, on the one side, agricultural machines and tools are missing, even the normal ones not to 3 Anghelache, C-tin (2013). România Starea economică sub povara efectelor crizei, Editura Economică, Bucureşti. See also Anghelache, C-tin (2012). România Starea economică in criză perpetuă, Editura Economică, Bucureşti 83

7 mention the high technology ones, while on the other side, the agricultural surfaces crumbled very much 4. It should have been expected that, subsequent the numerous signals being expressed, steps meant to stabilize the situation and to generate the perspective of the future development of the agriculture were taken without any delay. But the agriculture keeps on facing with huge delays, from all points of view. If the year 2011 was an exceptional year for the agriculture from the point of view of the climatic conditions, the longstanding draught in July-October led to a very small surface cultivated with fall starkly cereals while the processing of the land through ploughing recorded the lowest level if considering the last ten years. Under the circumstance, it was hard to anticipate that in the spring of the year 2012, with a modest endowment the delay recorded by the big field cultures, the fall ones for the time being, couldn t be recovered with slim outcomes. This is the practical effect of destroying, during the period , the national system of irrigations along with the capacity of fertilizing, chemification and mechanization of the agriculture. Another aspect to be benchmarked is given by the fact that, due to the stammering as regards the subventions for the taking over and warehousing the wheat and other cereals from the population, the largest quantity out of the crop of 2011 remained with the small producers (as regards the crop of 2012, under the precarious conditions leading to poor crops quantity and quality wise, it is worthless to pay too much attention). This situation has been worsened also by the fact that the improper warehousing implies the damages on quality made by the storage pests. In 2013, superior crops have been obtained which, although suffering from the quality point of view, has been warehoused and secure thus the reserves which Romania needs. The fact that during the period the sowing for the fall cereals has been made, mostly, with non-selected and, mainly, non-treated against the fields pests seeds is essential as well. The fact that because of the poor organization of the agriculture a small part only from the funds for agriculture available with the European Union has been accessed is an aspect to remind when approaching this chapter. 4 Anghelache, C. (coord., 2012) Modele statistico econometrice de analiză economică utilizarea modelelor în studiul economiei României, Revista Română de Statistică, Supliment Noiembrie

8 The situation is rather difficult if we consider the crops being achieved and, mainly, the agro technical conditions. Obviously, the subsidizing of the agriculture did not generate the forecasted effects and, consequently, it becomes even more difficult to apply for European funds. Because the way to allocate the subsidies, it was hard for the small producers to find out the necessary financial sources in order to achieve cultures according to normal criteria and agro technical methods. Of course, there are many more aspects to be added but we consider that the above mentioned issues are enough signals to the government which must take into consideration the setting up of the conditions for the crops of the next years. A proper such approach should consider the following aspects as well: The species degenerated a lot due to the fact that selected seeding material was not used anymore; Because of lack of subsidies, the matter of applications of fertilizers, insecticides and fungicides is suffering greatly; The acquisition of the crops from the producers has been accomplished with difficulty because of lack of centralized funds, at least for the state reserves; It is forecasted that, during the forthcoming period, the actual situation of the agriculture is inventoried so that necessary steps can be taken aiming to secure further on the necessary conditions for the agricultural year Similar conditions governed the activity run in the domain of fruit growing and vine growing over the last 24 years as well. A series of fruit and vine growing plantations degenerated because of the improper maintenance. Also, the degree of getting old of these plantations is high enough, with tough effects for the next period, in the context that new plantations have not been established. On the other hand, the level of maintaining and taking care of the plantations has been a poor one, so that many of them have been drawn out of the production while the remaining ones are producing in an randomly manner, depending on the minimum care granted to them. This is why, the problem of revising the situation of the fruit and vine growing plantations at the national level is considered, simultaneously with the setting up of those steps meant to secure at least the conservation at the existing level and, in perspective, to allow the replacement of these plantations with new ones. 85

9 As far as the endowment of the agriculture is concerned, one must underline that fact that, year after year, the existing machines and equipment are getting older physically and morally, without realistic prospects to let them be replaced. Thus, the agricultural machines and equipment have been transferred from the agro-mec units to individuals or, even if still with these units, they reached such a physical state that they hardly could be utilized, being replaced by imported ones. References Anghelache, C. (2013) România Starea economică sub povara efectelor crizei, Editura Economică, Bucureşti Anghelache C. şi alţii (2013) The Evolution of Agriculture Production, Romanian Statistical Review, Supplement no. 4/2013, pp Anghelache C., Barbu C.M., Căpuşneanu S. (2009) - Noţiuni privind dezvoltarea durabilă a agriculturii, publicat în nr. 6/iunie 2009, Supliment al Revistei Române de Statistică, pp , cod ISSN x, CNCSIS, categoria B+ Biji, M., Lilea, E., Roşca, E., Vătui, M. (2010) - Statistica pentru economişti Editura Economică, Bucureşti Dachin. A. (2011) Contributions of Agriculture to Economic Fluctuations in Romania, Theoretical and Applied Economics, Volume (Year): XVIII(2011) (2011), Issue (Month): 1(554) (January), pp El Shazly F.A.A., Anghelache C., Mitruţ C., Ţiţan E. (2008) - Piaţa agricolă, Simpozionul Ştiinţific Internaţional organizat de Societatea Română de Statistică la ROMÂNIA ÎN STRUCTURILE EUROPENE, supliment nr. 5/2008, pp , cod ISSN x, CNCSIS, categoria B + Neţoiu, M.L. et al. (2013) Romanian Agriculture, Where To? Challenges After Eu Integration, Annals of Computational Economics, Volume (Year): 1 (2013), Issue: 41, pp Rabonţu, C.I. (2013) Economic Aspects of the Romanian Agriculture Evolution, Constatin Brancusi University of Targu Jiu Annals - Economy Series, Volume (Year): 6 (2013), Issue (Month): (December), pp Anuarul statistic al României, ediţiile 2002, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012,