UNITED NATIONS LAS Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA) WORKSHOP AGENDA Monday, 2 July 2012

Transcription

1 UNITED NATIONS LAS E Distr. LIMITED E/ESCWA/SDPD/2012/WG.4/L.1 28 June 2012 ORIGINAL: ENGLISH Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA) Regional Workshop on RCM Applications and Analysis 2-4 July 2012 UN House Beirut, Lebanon WORKSHOP AGENDA Monday, 2 July :30 9:00 Registration at United Nations House, MZ Level, MZ Conferencee Room 9:00 9:30 Welcome and opening statements Moderator: Ms. Carol Chouchani Cherfane, Chief, Water Resources Section, Sustainable Development and Productivity Division, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA) Mr. Phil Graham, Senior Researcherr and International Project Manager, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) Mr. Ihab Jnad, Researcher, Water Resources Department, Arab Centre for the Studies of Arid Zones and Dry Lands (ACSAD) Mr. Ashraf Nour, Senior Expert on Meteorology and Climate Change, Environment, Housing, and Sustainable Development Department, League of Arab States (LAS) Ms. Roula Majdalani, Director, Sustainable Development Division, ESCWA and Productivity Tour de table Review of the agenda Session I Moving from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to Regional Climate Models (RCMs) Moderator: Mr. Ihab Jnad, ACSAD 9:30 9:45 The Regional Initiative Integrated Assessment Methodological Framework - Ms. Carol Chouchani Cherfane, ESCWA 9:45 10:00 Discussion 10:00 10:30 Introduction to Climate Modeling: GCMs and RCMs - Mr. Georgiy Stenchikov, Professor of Environmental Science and Professor of Applied Mathematics and Computational Science, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Thuwal, Saudi Arabia 10:30 10:45 Discussion

2 2 July 2012 (continued) 10:45 11:00 Climate Change Scenarios and their Evolution in the IPCC Assessment Reports - Mr. Tarek Sadek, First Economic Affairs Officer/Climate Change Officer, ESCWA 11:00 11:15 Discussion 11:15 11:30 Coffee Break 11:30 12:00 Establishing an Arab Domain within CORDEX 12:00 12:15 Discussion 12:15 12:45 RCM Model Applications: Inputs, Outputs and Tools for Impacts Analysis - Mr. Patrick Samuelsson, Senior Researcher, SMHI 12:45 13:00 Discussion 13:00 13:30 High Resolution Global Climate Modelling for the Arab Region - Mr. Georgiy Stenchikov, KAUST 13:30 13:45 Discussion 13:45 14:45 Lunch at ESCWA (Ground Floor) Session II Modeling the Climate in the Arab Region Moderator: Mr. Abdul-Majeid Haddad, Regional Climate Change Coordinator, Regional Office for West Asia, United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP/ROWA) 14:45 15:15 Understanding the Basics of PRECIS: Requirements for Running an RCM - Mr. Khaled Mawed, Climate Change Officer, Water Resources Department, ACSAD 15:15 15:30 Discussion 15:30 15:45 Coffee Break 15:45 16:15 Applications of Downscaling to Assess the Impacts of Climate Change on the Nile Basin Water Resources - Dr. Mohamed Elshamy, National Decision Support System Specialist, Nile Basin Initiative, Cairo, Egypt 16:15 16:30 Discussion 16:30 17:15 Climate Modeling Experiences at the National Level (Part I) - Presentations by Country Representatives (5-7 minutes each) 17:15 17:30 Discussion of National Capacities and Constraints affecting Climate Modeling Guided exchange on technical constraints affecting national and regional climate modeling capacity, including data availability, data coding, RCM interface protocols, complexity, computing power, storage capacity, human capacity, etc. with reference to challenges revealed during country presentations. 17:30 End of Day 1

3 Tuesday, 3 July 2012 Session III Pursuing a Climate Modeling Strategy for the Arab Domain Moderator: Mr. Ashraf Nour, LAS 9:00 9:30 Working with Climate Model Ensembles for the Arab Domain: A Strategy for Dealing with Uncertainty 9:30 9:45 Discussion 9:45 10:15 Projection Results from the CORDEX Africa Domain - Mr. Patrick Samuelsson, Senior Researcher, SMHI 10:15 10:30 Discussion 10:30 10:45 Coffee Break 10:45 11:15 Climate Data Requirement for Running and Validating RCM Outputs - Mr. Khaled Mawed, ACSAD 11:15 11:30 Discussion 11:30 12:00 Collecting Water Data to support Hydrological Modeling based on RCM Outputs - Mr. Ihab Jnad, Water Resources Department, ACSAD 12:00 12:15 Discussion 12:15 13:30 Lunch Break (on own) Session IV Understanding and Examining RCM Outputs Moderator: Mr. Phil Graham, SMHI 13:30 14:00 Modeling the Climate in the Arab Region with PRECIS using SRES Scenarios - Dr. Mohamed Elshamy, Former Consultant, UNESCO-Cairo Office; National DSS Specialist, Nile Basin Initiative, Cairo, Egypt 14:00 14:15 Discussion 14:15 14:30 Coffee Break 14:30 15:00 Providing RCM Outputs for Use in Impacts Models: Examples from European Applications - Mr. Fahad Saeed, Climate Service Center (CSC), Hamburg, Germany 15:00 15:30 Discussion and Wrap-up on Working with RCM Outputs 15:30 15:45 Break 15:45 17:00 Climate Modeling Experiences at the National Level (Part II) - Presentations by Country Representatives (5-7 minutes each)

4 3 July 2012 (continued) 17:00 17:30 Discussion on Lessons Learned from Climate Modeling Experiences in the Region Guided exchange on impetus for national climate modeling initiatives, whether GCMs or RCMs are generally used during national climate modeling exercises; benefits/challenges of inter-agency coordination for data, modeling and analysis of modeling outputs at the national level, etc. with reference to lessons and challenges revealed during the country presentations. 17:30 End of Day 2 Wednesday, 4 July 2012 Session V Incorporating Climate Extremes and Extreme Events Moderator: Ms. Luna Abu-Swaireh, Head, UNISDR Liaison Office in Bonn, Germany 9:00 9:15 Analyzing Extreme Events in RCM Outputs 9:15 9:30 Discussion 9:30 9:45 Identifying Extreme Events for Analysis in the Arab Region - Mr. Sung Eun Kim, Associated Economic Affairs Officer, WRS/SDPD, ESCWA 9:45 10:00 Discussion 10:00 10:30 Climate Change Signals and Impacts: From Region to Sub-region and Impacts of Sand and Dust Storms - Mr. Jaser Rabadi, Representative of World Meteorological Organization (WMO) for West Asia, Manama, Bahrain 10:30 10:45 Discussion 10:45 11:00 Discussion to identify priority extreme events to target during RCM output analysis 11:00 11:15 Coffee Break Session VI Hands-On Exercise 11:15 12:30 Examining downscaled Outputs On-line (using - Overview of Exercise by SMHI; activity facilitated by SMHI, ACSAD, ESCWA 12:30 13:00 Participant Presentations (5 minutes each) 13:00 13:15 Feedback and Discussion of Interactive On-line Tools and Interface Options - Facilitated by Ms. Carol Chouchani Cherfane, ESCWA Session VII Closing Session Moderator: Mr. Ashraf Nour, LAS 13:15 13:30 Synthesis and Review of Potential Problems and Pitfalls faced during Regional Climate Change Analysis

5 4 July 2012 (continued) 13:30 13: 45 Discussion 13:45 14:00 Closing Statements - Mr. Wael Seif, ACSAD - Ms. Carol Chouchani Cherfane, ESCWA 14:00 Close of Workshop