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1 adapted to energy descent futures Future of Food Conference MAV Melboure Sept 2016 David Holmgren 8/09/ co-originator of the permaculture concept

2 Climax (post-modern cultural chaos) Techno-Explosion Techno-Stability Energy & Resource Use Population Pollution Pre-industrial sustainable culture Collapse Energy descent Agriculture yrs BP Historical Time Industrial Revolution Baby Boom Great Grand Children Future Time Old Growth Forest 8/09/

3 What Is Energy Descent? Decline in NET energy available to support humanity Mirrors energy ascent; very fast over several decades, and then more slowly over several centuries A gentle decline like a balloon coming back to earth as the most hopeful future. Rate of change appears greater due to radical change in direction (permanent economic contraction) History of past civilisations suggests a stepwise descent with stable states separated by crises

4 Permaculture, Transition & EDAP compared to mainstream Sustainability Mainstream sustainability Permaculture, Transition & Energy Descent Action Planning View of future Techno-stability Energy Descent Goal Minimising impact Increasing resilience Strategy Reform existing systems from top down Build parallel system from bottom up Process Policies, planning & economics Self organising, practical, cultural, spiritual Focus Built environment & technology Biological and behavioural systems.

5 Climate Change & Peak Oil drive Energy Descent Scenarios Destructive Climate Change Slow Oil Decline 2% Fast Oil Decline 10% Benign 8/09/

6 Global GHG emissions & net energy/person Green Tech Energy Descent Pathway st Great Depression Central Vic Bushfires & Drought Global Green Divide Including Green Regrowth Years Southern Australian federation End of globalisation 2 nd Great Depression Earth Steward Eco-technic

7 Property price collapse, & nancial crisis Gold and silver Intrinsic tender

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9 Northern Victorian irrigated agriculture? Eppalock catchment 10% reduction rainfall > 90% reduction in yield!!! Lake Eppalock 2007

10 Salvage logging & regrowth management 8/09/

11 RetroSuburbia the heartland of garden farming 8/09/

12 Monetary transactions dominate economy at Energy Peak Household Community Institutional Corporate Business Monetary 5 economy Non-monetary economy Non-monetary transactions dominate economy in Energy Descent Household Community 20 Institutional Corporate Business

13 Rural Resid. Broadacre Container Courtyard Suburban Com. Hort. Cropping Grazing Rangeland, Forestry, Reserve 1m 2 10m 2 100m m 2 1 ha 10ha 100ha 1000ha 10,000ha+ Soil Sunshine Rainfall/water

14 Agricultural Land Use Land Use System Area % Value of Food % Horticulture/ Aquaculture Field Crops Tree Crops Animal Husbandry 50 25

15 Permaculture Site Planning Zones Spatial patterns and placement principles: Used to organize data about the site into useful patterns and provide a framework for a concept plan. Concentric Zones of intensity of use (human energies) Radial Sectors of wild energies Slope: Use of gravity as a lateral force. Infrastructure: overlaid structures of human controlled energies

16 Bioregional Agricultural Zones Zone size Rural zones larger but lower yields/ha, most managed by animals Urban zones smaller but highest yield/ha most managed by people 5 Reserve 4 Managed rangelands & forest Return flow of Nutrients to Farms Net flow of Produce to Towns 3 Arable Farmland Comparative advantage in non perishable low input, low yield extensive production Broad acre farming produces most staples, larger livestock products and some tree crops for commercial sale through local & central markets 2 Urban A g 1 Garden A g Comparative advantage in perishable, high input, high value, intensive production 0 Urban/ Indust Garden farming in the household economy & commercial urban ag. produces most horticultural and small livestock products

17 Zone 0 Urban & Industrial Area % 2 Typical Yields Value of yields as % of diet Mushrooms, Fish Greens/Sprouts Ferments 10

18 Zone 1 Garden Farming Area % Typical Yields 5 Vegies, Fruit, Eggs, Meat Value of yields 20 as % of diet

19 Zone 2 Urban Agriculture Area % 5 Typical Yields Value of yields as % of diet Staple crops, (potatoes, corn, pumpkins) Eggs, dairy 20

20 Urban Agriculture Opportunistic irrigation using stormwater

21 Urban Agriculture at the edge

22 Zone 3 Rural Agriculture Area % 30 Typical Yields Value of yields as % of diet 30 Dryland grains,legumes, oil seeds,dairy, meat,

23 Zone 4 Rangelands & Forest Area % 50 Typical Yields Value of yields as % of diet meat, wool, honey timber, fuel 20

24 Future Farming Zones Zone Area % Typical Yields 0. urban 2 Fish, greens, sprouts mushrooms, ferments, 1. garden farming 2. urban agriculture 3. rural farming 4. forestry & range 5 Vegetables, fruit, eggs, meat, honey Value of yields as % of total diet Main crop, dairy, eggs Dryland grains, legumes, oil seeds, nuts, tree crops, dairy meat, 50 Timber, fuel wool, meat, honey 30 20

25 Land Use Allocation for Energy Descent Food Ag Comparative advantage in non perishable low input, low yield extensive production Quadrant size is indicative product of relative area & economic value for Australian food system in energy descent Zone 3/4/5Rural/Commercial Broad acre farming produces most staples, larger livestock products and some tree crops for commercial sale through local & central markets Fodder, Fibre, Fuel, Timber and other non food land uses Tree Crops Nuts, olives & fruit tree crops Garden farming in the household economy and commercial urban ag. produces most horticultural and small livestock products, Domestic & wild grazing animals (meat, & dairy ) from non arable land Animals Poultry, Bees Rabbits Zone 0.Urban Aquaponics, Mushrooms Fruit, Vegetables & nursery Zone 1/2 Suburban Garden & Urban Ag Field Crops Dryland staple grains, legumes & oil seeds from prime arable land Net flow of produce to towns, Return flow of Nutrients to farms Comparative advantage in perishable, high input, high value, intensive production

26 References and Resources Landuse Patterns for Growing Abundance in the energy descent future History from the future: A prosperous Way Down for Energy Descent Future Essay & Presentation Permaculture: principles & pathways beyond sustainability 2002 Future Scenarios; how communities can adapt to Peak Oil and Climate Change 2008 Money vs Fossil Energy; the battle for the control of the world 2010 Energy Descent Action Planning; report to Hepburn Shire 2011 Crash On Demand; welcome to the brown tech future