1 Castor Castor (Ricinus communis L.) is a non edible oilseed, belonging to the Euphorbiaceae family. India is the world leader in castor production and dominates the international castor oil trade. The Indian variety of castor has an oil content of 48%. Out of 48% about 42% of oil is being extracted and the cake retains the rest. The Castor seed products have widespread application in many industries like Paint, Lubricant, Pharmaceutical, Textiles, etc. SEASONALITY Castor is a perennial crop but grown as an annual for economic purpose. Castor grows well in tropical conditions. It grows best in heat and humidity. The crop duration is 4-5 months. In India, it is sown in July/August and harvesting commences around January/February. The arrivals in the market start from January onwards till mid of May. Gujarat Andhra Pradesh Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Sowing Growth stage Harvesting Global Scenario: India leads the world in castor seed production. It shares about 64% in total global production. China holds the second position with 18% share followed by Brazil with 12%. For , oilseeds are having competitive position as compared with cereals and with sugarcane. This has adversely affected the acreage in Brazil where sugarcane has proved to be hugely profitable whilst castor and other oilseeds had turned out to be marginal. This had resulted in lower crop in Brazil. Chinese castor seed production estimates have been reported lower than previous season indicating a huge demand. Chinese market is also expected to have a 35% surge in castor oil imports. On the demand side, world demand of oilseed is likely to rise by at least 6 million tonnes.
2 Country Production (in Lakh Tons) India 9.1 China 2.5 Brazil 1.77 Others 0.5 Total Share in production ( ) 13% 4% 18% 65% India China Brazil Others India is also the major producer of castor oil. India produces about 3.82 lakh tons, followed by China and Brazil with 1 and 0.72 lakh tons. India shares about 65% of total castor oil production. Global castor oil consumption: Although India produces major percentage of castor oil, its domestic consumption is limited. It exports major percentage to the international markets. China is the major consumer of castor oil. Country Consumption (in Lakh tons) India 0.82 China 1.67 Brazil 0.55 EU 1.3 USA 0.4 Japan 0.22 Others 0.42 Total 5.38 The world demand for castor oil is growing at the rate of about 3-5 percent per annum.
3 Indian Current Scenario: In due to better prices realisation in wheat, rice and sugarcane, castor along with other oilseeds had lost acreage to there commodities. In irrigated areas sugarcane and wheat will be the crops of choice for farmers. Floods and drought in Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh respectively had also adversely affected the crop. Better price realisation in pulses had also prompted the farmers to shift from castor. India's Production from to (Qty. in Million Tonnes) Castor The major states producing Castor are Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, Rajasthan and Karnataka. Gujarat contribute about 68%, followed by Andhra Pradesh and Rajasthan who contribute 16% and 11% respectively. Oilseeds Percentage Change Area* Production Area Lakh Production Area Lakh Production Lakh Ha Lakh Ton Ha Lakh Ton Ha Lakh Ton Castor (-) 6.12 (-) According to second revised estimates by Ministry of Agriculture, castor production is estimated at around 7.3 lakh tons compared to earlier estimation of 6.1 lakh tons. In production was around 9.9 lakh tons. This year production is estimated to be lower by 26.26% compared to last year. Area covered under castor cultivation also declined by 0.6 lakh hectare to 8.9 lakh hectares this year.
4 Present Scenario As mentioned earlier, decline in area along with reduced production had resulted in bullish sentiments. Recent rains in Northern India had also resulted in crop damage. Almost 30-40% of crops are reported to be adversely affected due to unseasonal rains. Arrivals are also lower at around only 30,000-35,000 bags compared to normal arrivals of 1,00,000 bags during this period thereby pushing up the prices. By the end of May arrivals are likely to cease due to exhausted stocks. Normal daily crushing requirement is 55,000 bags where by 50% is fulfilled by stocks and 40% directly from spot market. Demand for castor oil from China and European countries would firm up global as well as domestic castor oil prices. Castor Oil Demand Estimate Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Monthly Demand Cumulative '00 MT However, Exchange rate is a matter of concern. Due to appreciating Rupee exporters stayed away from market for some time. Rupee appreciated 6.3% from to levels in a range of 1 month thereby resulting in lower export orders. Weak soy complex also pressurize prices during that time period. Market is expected to revive from recent fall, and is expected to trade with more bias on higher side for near term.
5 Castor Seed (June- NCDEX) Though the overall trend is bullish, we had seen a good correction in the market for the past four consecutive weeks and made a low of 403 levels after making a high of levels. We may see prices to move up from here in short term with the weekly RSI is at 0.62 and MACD has shown a cross over in the weekly chart. Wave patterns are signaling a clear indication of prices to move up in the short term. In the weekly chart prices have completed 1 major wave (Impulsive of & corrective A). Currently it s heading towards B which is targeting 434 levels in the short term. Since the trend has been bullish from 270 to levels we may see a correction again towards 390 levels in the medium term. Recommendation: We recommend buying for the short term around levels for a possible target of levels and in the adverse condition we may have to keep stop loss below 400 levels. However for the long term we may buy on a good correction around 390 levels for a target of 440 and then levels. A
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