Functioning of Grain & Oilseeds Supply and Demand Estimates and using it to identify food security risks in the South African Grain industry

Transcription

1 Functioning of Grain & Oilseeds Supply and Demand Estimates and using it to identify food security risks in the South African Grain industry Christo Joubert NAMC Sept

2 Outline of presentation 1. Background 2. S&DEC: Functioning 3. S&DEC: Process 4. SASDE Report: Report Interest 5. Case study: Wheat Example 6. SASDE Report Latest published 29 Aug Specialist Job Profile 2

3 Background Request for information pertaining to exports & imports Submission of statutory measure by GrainSA Commodity Future Trading Commission (CFTC) Mutual agreement Establishment of Supply & Demand Estimates Liaison committee Competition authorities SASDE report description & publication 3

4 Functioning of the Supply & Demand Estimates Committee 4

5 S&DELC and S&DEC consist of: S&DELC Report to: S&DEC 2 x Officials 3 4 x Officials 3 Independent members: Dr Anton Lubbe Dawie Van Straten Dr A Jooste (Chair) 3 x Officials 1 x Officials 5

6 S&DEC Representatives: NAMC representation omanager: Agro Food Chains osecretary oreport writer ograin specialist (Vacant) SAGIS representative oceo oco-opt 2 nd person if CEO is not available DAFF (CEC officers) representatives o 2 x Officials Independent industry specialists othree specialist appointed by industry 6

7 Supply & Demand Estimates Process 7

8 Process Process before a meeting 1. S&DEC meeting takes place 3 5 working days after CEC meeting, at the end of each month (excl. December) 2. Reminders are forwarded to all the co workers, ± 7 days before S&DEC meeting, requesting estimates on imports, export, consumption of selected grains & oilseeds, etc 3. Co workers submit their estimates the day before S&DEC meeting and followups occur 4. S&DEC meeting takes place in lock down situation Meeting process 1. NAMC provides figures to S&DEC 2. SAGIS provides physical deliveries (& extrapolations) 3. DAFF CEC provides crop estimates 4. Independent members provide inputs pertaining to selected variables used to estimate S&D figures (in particular imports and exports) 5. Proper discussion & deliberations take place before any decision is made regarding estimates. 6. Publication of report takes place after 12h00 of the meeting date 7. The meeting/release dates is available on the NAMC website 8

9 Following factors taken into account in the meeting Supply CEC published figures Historical figures Demand Historical figures Current deliveries published by SAGIS Extrapolations Co workers figures submitted, without disclosing their identity SAGIS figures Figures published by Crop Estimate Committee (CEC) Figures, opinions and discussions with co workers are taken into account Baseline modelling figures on demand and consumption from BFAP Other modelling e.g. inter industry forecasting modelling & CGE modelling will be taken into account for the future capacity expansion 9

10 Interest in SASDE Report 10

11 Report Strike Rate: 11

12 Supply & Demand Estimates Accuracy: Wheat 12

13 Accuracy: Wheat Estimate vs actual Appendix 2: Detailed S & D table for Wheat August 2014 Wheat Wheat Wheat Marketing season Actual for Projection for Projection for 2012/ / /15 tons tons tons 1 CEC (Crop Estimate) CEC (Retention) NA SUPPLY 5 Opening stock (1 Oct) Prod deliveries* Imports Surplus Total Supply DEMAND 11 Processed human animal gristing Withdrawn by producers Released to end-consumers Seed for planting purposes Net receipts(-)/disp(+) Deficit Exports products whole wheat Total Demand Closing Stock (30 Sep) processed p/month months' stock days' stock /15: +29.2% 2014/15: +5.9% 2014/15: +4.9% 2014/15: 13.5% 13

14 S&DE Report 14

15 SASDE Report South African Supply and Demand Estimates Report Grain & Oilseed Supply & Demand Estimates Committee (S&DEC) SASDE August 2014 SOUTH AFRICAN SUPPLY AND DEMAND PROJECTIONS FOR GRAINS AND OILSEEDS FOR AUGUST 2014 ARE AS FOLLOWS: WHITE MAIZE (2014/15 Season) Supply: The total supply of white maize is projected at tons for the 2014/15 marketing season. This includes opening stock (at 1 May 2014) of tons, and local commercial deliveries of tons. No whole white maize imports will take place. Demand: The total demand (local and exports) for white maize is projected at tons. The total local demand is projected at tons. This includes tons processed for human consumption, tons processed for animal and industrial consumption, tons for gristing, tons withdrawn by producers, tons released to end consumers and a balancing figure of tons (net receipts and net dispatches). A projected export quantity of tons of processed products and tons of whole white maize is estimated for the 2014/15 marketing season. Stock levels: The projected closing stock level at 30 April 2015 is estimated at tons. At an average processed quantity of tons per month, this represents available stock for 3.0 months or 92 days. YELLOW MAIZE (2014/15 Season) Supply: The total supply of yellow maize is projected at tons for the 2014/15 marketing season. This includes an opening stock (at 1 May 2014) of tons, local commercial deliveries of tons. No whole yellow maize imports will take place.e. Demand: The total demand (local and exports) for yellow maize is projected at tons. The total local demand is projected at tons. This includes tons processed for human consumption, tons processed for animal and industrial consumption, tons for gristing, tons withdrawn by producers, tons released to end consumers and a balancing figure of tons (net receipts and net dispatches). A projected export quantity of tons of processed products and tons of whole yellow maize is estimated for the 2014/15 marketing season. Stock levels: The projected closing stock level at 30 April 2015 is estimated at tons. At an average processed quantity of tons per month, this represents available stock for 2.3 months or 69 days. TOTAL MAIZE (2014/15 Season) upply: The total supply of maize is projected at tons for the 2014/15 marketing season. This includes an opening stock (at 1 May 2014) of tons, local commercial deliveries of tons, and no whole maize imports. Demand: The total demand (local and exports) for maize is projected at tons. The total local demand is projected at tons. This includes tons processed for human consumption, tons processed for animal and industrial consumption, tons for gristing, tons withdrawn by producers, tons released to endconsumers and a balancing figure of tons (net receipts and net dispatches). A projected export quantity of tons of processed products and tons of whole maize is estimated for the 2014/15 marketing season. Stock levels: The projected closing stock level at 30 April 2015 is estimated at tons. At an average processed quantity of tons per month, this represents available stock for 2.7 months or 82 days. See Appendix 1 for detailed S&D table. An explanation of terms and calculations is available on the NAMC website. WHEAT (2013/14 Season) Supply: The total supply of wheat is projected at tons for the 2013/14 marketing season. This includes an opening stock (at 1 October 2013) of tons, local commercial deliveries of tons, and whole wheat imports of tons. Demand: The total demand (local and exports) for wheat is projected at tons. This includes tons processed for human consumption, tons processed for animal consumption, tons withdrawn by producers, tons released to end consumers, tons projected seed for planting and a balancing figure of tons (net receipts and net dispatches). A projected export quantity of tons of processed products and tons of whole wheat is estimated for the 2013/14 marketing season. 15

16 SASDE Report: Appendixes Appendix 2: Detailed S & D table for Wheat August 2014 Wheat Wheat Wheat Marketing season Actual for Projection for Projection for 2012/ / /15 tons tons tons 1 CEC (Crop Estimate) CEC (Retention) NA SUPPLY 5 Opening stock (1 Oct) Prod deliveries* Imports Surplus Total Supply DEMAND 11 Processed human animal gristing Withdrawn by producers Released to end-consumers Seed for planting purposes Net receipts(-)/disp(+) Deficit Exports products whole wheat Total Demand Closing Stock (30 Sep) processed p/month months' stock days' stock

17 Job profile of Specialist (Vacant position) 17

18 Grain Specialist: Main outputs & responsibilities Be responsible for the operation, functioning and future development of the S&DEC initiative. Be an expert on the grain and oilseeds value chain with primary focus on South Africa. Building & maintain value chain data on grain and oilseeds industries. Initiate and undertake research programs to fill gaps regarding available information in the system e.g. Milling capacity in the wheat industry. Crushing capacity in the oilseeds (soybeans & sunflower) industries. Milling capacity in the white maize industry. Manufactory capacity in the feed industry. Flow diagrams of grain, oilseed and processed products. Other: Starch, kern oil where applicable. Develop and liaise with a network of stakeholders in the grain and oilseed industries on a national and international level. Collect, process and present accurate data on all aspects of all grains and oilseeds in South Africa and in SADC region for the functioning of the S&DEC. Be responsible for the required compliance of dissemination of the above information as required by the competition authorities. In depth understanding of the functioning of SAGIS. Understand, report and communicate world market supply and demand positions with S&DEC. Represent S&DEC on Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) initiative by the FAO and International Grain Council. Participate in food security initiatives e.g. FEWS. Understand the working and the operation of the WAOB and WASDE report. Develop and enhance current system, database etc. Responsible for the on time release of SASDE report. Be the first contact point for press, public & private sector on SASDE report. 18

19 Thank you Contact details: Christo Joubert Tel: E mail: christo@namc.co.za Website: This presentation would not have been possible without the contributions from various organisations and individuals. The NAMC would like to thank you for your willingness to assist with this very important programme. 19