Livestock s contribution to climate smart agriculture

Transcription

1 Livestock s contribution to climate smart agriculture Towards a more sustainable Asian Livestock Sector Nay Pyi Taw November Simon Oosting 1,2, Pierre Gerber 1,2, Jennifer Mleczko 2, Gabriel Teno 2, Lisanne Matena 1,2 and Corina van Middelaar 1 1 Wageningen University, The Netherlands 2 The World Bank group, Washington DC

2 Contents Animal source food demand Animal source food supply Global warming potential associated with livestock production N- and P- pollution associated with livestock production Some examples of livestock development

3 Increasing demand

4 Projections future milk consumption

5 How has the increased production been achieved? China India Indonesia Kenya Production (Mt/y) Herd size (Mhead) Productivity (kg/cow/y)

6 What is sustainable?

7 What is environmental sustainability? Environmental sustainability implies that natural resources are used in economies not exceeding their regenerative and absorptive capacity

8 Emissions to the environment Role of livestock in nutrient cycles Nitrogen xxx copper potassium zinc Carbon Phosphorus sulphur

9 Eutrophication (terrestrial) Excess emission of gases/substrates to air or soil N- eutrophication: NH 3, NO 3-, NO x composition of ecosystem changes vegetation damage due to storm, drought, frost and diseases nitrate level in groundwater > 50 mg/l Blue Baby Syndrome

10 P - eutrophication: PO 4 3- Growth algae/plants Eutrophication (aquatic) Death algae/plants Microbial degradation O 2 -deficiency

11 Global warming (world-wide) IPCC, 2007

12 Main greenhouse gases: CO 2, CH 4 & N 2 O Carbon dioxide (GWP = 1 CO 2 equivalent) fossil fuel combustions & land use change Methane (GWP = 28 CO 2 equivalents) enteric fermentation & manure management (anaerobic fermentation of carbohydrates) Nitrous oxide (GWP = 265 CO 2 equivalents) manure management & nitrogen application (NO 3- NO 2- NO N 2 O N 2 )

13 GHG emissions from the livestock sector Relative contribution of lifecycle phases global livestock sector Total GHG emissions: 7.1 Gt CO 2 -eq. FAO, 2013

14 Methane Emission Intensities Gerber et al., 2013

15 15 Relationship between total greenhouse gas emissions and milk output per cow kg CO2-eq. per kg FPCM ,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 Output per cow, kg FPCM per year Gerber et al., 2011

16 Cattle have more functions than milk! Farming system Productivity (kg milk/cow/y) Without allocation With allocation to non-production functions GWP (kg CO 2 -e/kg milk) GWP (kg CO 2 -e/kg milk) Free grazing Zero grazing Large scale Very large scale

17 Gton CO2-eq/yr The grand challenge 60 Emissions from food - Baseline degree climate target Emissions from food - Increased livestock productivity Emissions path 70% probability Emissions path 50% probability Source: Hedenus, Wirsenius, Johansson (2010)

18 (Peri-urban) specialised systems Often industrial systems: capital-, land- and labourintensive high input-high output Pig, poultry, dairy Many peri-urban systems in developing countries are not (yet) capital intensive, but they are often landless land-intensive! Regarded as essential for meeting future demand for Animal Source Food

19 Example 1. Dairy production near Nakuru 3 locations: Extreme rural > 50 km from Nakuru Mid-rural km from Nakuru Urban < 15 km from Nakuru

20 Price of milk and inputs, and land size and milk production of farms at different distances to the urban market of Nakuru town in Kenya. Parameters Urban Mid-rural Extreme RMSE 1 location (n=10) location (n=11) rural location (n=9) Price Milk (US $/100 kg) 45.1 a 34.0 b 31.7 b 4.62 AI 2 (US $/straw) 11.9 (n=8) 11.0 (n=10) 12.0 (n=7) 1.75 Concentrates (US $/100 kg) 33.6 a (n=6) 26.0 b (n=6) 27.9 b (n=8) 4.83 Land size (ha/farm) Within location 1.0 a 3.6 b 3.4 b 2.13 Outside location Milk production Yield (kg/cow/d) Yield (kg/herd/d) Yield (kg/ha on-farm land/d) 71.2 a 5.6 b 8.7 b 65.50

21 Limited intensification Lack of forage Saturation of informal market

22 Example 2: Manure in Lembang Manure management Fraction of farmers applying Manure (kton DM/yr) N (ton/yr) P (ton/yr) the manure management Discharge Applied on own land Sold to other farm Sold to manure collector Aquaculture Total

23 Example 2: Manure in Lembang Land needed to grow forage and for manure application (in a sustainable way!)

24 Example 3: Beef production for Malang Bakso (meatball soup) 100 finished bulls required daily

25 Beef production for Malang breeds Cross breeding (Simmental and Limousin)

26 Beef production for Malang The value chains Breeders; mixed croplivestock smallholder with breeder cow; calf to 250 kg n = to Feeders; part-time farmers extensive fattening as medium input activity; from 250 to 350 kg Fatteners; Feedlots with 300 to 1000 bull places; high input system; from 350 to 450 kg n = n = 37 Jagal; sourcing, slaughtering, distribution n = 40

27 Results Reproductive performance at 38 breeder farms; mean ± s.e. Age at first oestrus (months) 17.0 ± 0.49 Weaning age (months) 5.9 ± 0.28 Intercalving interval (months) 15.2 ± 1.01 Average service per conception (n) 1.6 ±0.11

28 Results Growth curves for bulls at feedlots (ADG at feedlot: 1016 ± 69.3 g/day)

29 Beef production for Malang Economics of intensification Breeder # beef animals sold per year 0.31 Price per kg LW Benefit (Rp per year) 3.1 million Costs (Rp per year) 0 Gross margin (Rp per year) 3.1 million Breeder # beef animals sold per year 0.62 Price per kg LW Benefit (Rp per year) 6.2 million Costs (Rp per year) 3.7 million (10000/day for feed) Gross margin (Rp per year) 2.4 million

30 Example 3: beef for Malang Very efficient value chain Using resources Income to many smallholders and part time farmers Difficult to improve

31 Conclusion Urgency to act regarding environmental issues in livestock, everywhere! Knowledge and political will! Targeting, livestock numbers, livestock species, optimal land use (crops, livestock) Looking forward to your questions!