ETHIOPIA Food Security Update February 2006

Transcription

1 ETHIOPIA Food Security Update February 2006 ALERT STATUS: NO ALERT WATCH WARNING EMERGENCY CONTENTS Summaries and Calendar... 1 Meher season production estimates... 2 Pastoral areas update... 3 Market analysis... 5 Weather update... 6 Summary and Implications According to the 2006 Humanitarian Appeal for Ethiopia released in January, and information from the Food Security Coordination Bureau (FSCB), about 11 million people need humanitarian assistance in About 400,000 metric tons (MT) of emergency food aid are needed to feed 2.6 million people affected by unfavorable weather conditions, the cumulative effects of drought, and livestock losses. As of February 2006, confirmed food aid donations and carry over stocks amounted to 238,000 MT, leaving a net requirement of about 100,000 MT for the year. Carry over stocks are sufficient to meet emergency food needs until May Government and partners have also requested donor assistance for recovery and rehabilitation in health and nutrition, water supply, agriculture, coordination and capacity strengthening with an estimated cost of US$ 111 million, including pastoral areas. Pledges for non-food sectors continued to be dismal meeting only 7 percent of the appeal requirements. The Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP), which aims to address needs of chronically food insecure households through cash and food transfers, has been scaled up in 2006 to 8.3 million people from 4.8 million last year. The current food security crisis in pastoral areas of the south and southeast continues to deteriorate rapidly with an urgent funding gap of US$ 13 million for non-food sectors. As expected with the harsh jillal (dry) season progressing, alarming levels of malnutrition are being found. With the possibility of below-normal rainfall for the coming gu/ganna season (March May), a significant increase in the number of people needing humanitarian assistance is expected. Seasonal Calendar Current Hazard Summary o Failed deyr season rains (October December) in southern and southeastern parts of the country threaten the lives of millions of pastoralists. o A shortened meher rainy season (June-September), especially in the east, resulted in a meher crop failure in some eastern lowland areas. o Cereal prices remain at record high levels and have shown stability or slight increase in January contrary to seasonal trends. o Tribal conflicts occurred in southern Oromiya and Somali regions. Food Security Summary In spite of a large apparent increase in production and food availability, a humanitarian crisis remains at a national level with widespread starvation occurring in parts of the country. About 11 million beneficiaries (2.6 million emergency and 8.3 million safety net beneficiaries) will not be able to access an adequate diet at least during some part of Figures 1, 2 and 3 show the concentration of emergency and safety net beneficiaries in the country. The pastoral areas of northeastern, southern, southeastern Ethiopia have the highest percentage of their rural population in need of relief assistance in 2006 (Figure 2). On the other hand, the high potential and surplus grain producing areas of western and southwestern Ethiopia are not expected to need any humanitarian Figure 1: Percentage of Population Needing Humanitarian Assistance in 2006 (Emergency + PSNP) Data source: DPPA and FSCB. Graphics by FEWS NET. FEWS NET Ethiopia Tel: /18 FEWS NET is funded by the US Agency for International Development P O Box 1014 Fax: Addis Ababa Ethiopia@fews.net

2 assistance during the year. Tigray and the northeastern highlands, and eastern part of SNNPR, and central and eastern Oromiya are the epicenters of chronic food insecurity in the country (Figure 3). 2005/06 Meher Season Production Estimates and their Food Security Implications The Central Statistical Authority (CSA) and FAO/WFP estimated the 2005/06 meher crop production at between 13.7 million MT (CSA) and million MT (FAO/WFP), representing 15% and 14% increases, respectively, from last year s revised post-harvest estimates. These estimates are 40-42% higher than their respective five year averages. Meher crop production represents approximately 90% of Ethiopia s total annual food production. According to the two sources, almost all available land (between 9.5 and 11.3 million hectares (ha)) was cultivated, and more than 99% of land was subject to smallholder cultivation. These estimates resulted from timely and well distributed meher season rainfall and other factors conducive for crop development, including improved availability and effective utilization of inputs, rapid control of migratory pests and increases in area cultivated relative to previous years. CSA and FAO/WFP production estimates have consistently reported increases in production over the last three years. However, a 45-50% increase in 2003/04, a 10-15% increase in 2004/05 from the previous year and a 14-15% increase in 2005/06 from 2004/05 would mean production increased by more than 80 percent for the past three years alone, making this year s increase a real bumper harvest, the highest estimated production the country has ever seen. Whether the current estimates are adjustments to compensate for underestimation in previous years or are inflated needs to be analyzed. Irrespective of differences, a better than expected meher 2005/06 harvest with surplus production in some locations in the west is expected to mitigate food insecurity for millions of people in the least chronically food insecure areas. In spite of a huge apparent increase in production and food availability, a humanitarian crisis persists at a national level with widespread starvation affecting some parts of the country. Despite surpluses in the west, about 11 million people (2.6 million emergency and 8.3 million safety nets beneficiaries 1 ) are unable to access an adequate diet for at least part of 2006 (Figures 2 and 3). The major reasons for this continued high level food insecurity include: poor 2005 pastoral rains; erratic meher rains in some areas; delayed, insufficient and interrupted emergency food aid delivery in pastoral areas and an abysmally low level of non-food interventions. Behind these immediate causes the chronic nature of food insecurity in Ethiopia remains and is driven by seasonal food shortages, regional food security imbalances, recurrent and increasingly frequent droughts; high concentrations of poverty in remote areas; inefficient markets; poor infrastructure; insecurity and ethnic conflict; inappropriate government policy; limited government capacity; and environmental degradation. Figure 2: Percentage of Population Needing Emergency Food Assistance between January and June 2006 Figure 3: Percentage of Chronically Food Insecure Population Needing Safety Net Assistance during 2006 Source: Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Agency (DPPA) and Food Security Coordination Bureau (FSCB). Graphics by FEWS NET. Notes: 1. Numbers in bracket indicate number of beneficiaries by each respective humanitarian assistance category. 2. The DPPA and FSCB launches their resource requirements in January. A subsequent revision will be made around July (when necessary) depending on the development of the food security situation during the first six months of the year and the outcome of the belg/gu/ganna rainy season (March-May). 3. The total number of people needing humanitarian assistance in a region is a summation of emergency assistance and chronically food insecure who will be covered by safety net programs, except in Somali region. Due to the ongoing humanitarian crisis, Somali region will be covered by emergency for the first half of the year with higher number of beneficiaries, but this number is expected to decrease during the year when the productive safety net program is scheduled to start. 1 The 8.3 million PSNP beneficiaries are divided into 55 percent cash and 46 percent food transfer with cash component of US$ 138 million and 385,000 MT food requirements, respectively. Page 2 of 6

3 Non-food aid shortfalls Despite the recognized importance of emergency non-food responses in both pastoral and non-pastoral areas, only 7 percent of the emergency non-food requirements for 2006 have been met. According to recent information from the DPPA and sectoral task forces, a US$ million shortfall remains out of the total revised non-food requirement 2 of US$ 111 million. Yet, severe water and pasture shortages and inadequate public health services, especially in pastoral areas, have significantly increased the urgency of these needs. Figure 4: 2006 Non-Food Emergency Shortfalls As depicted in Figure 4, health and nutrition as well as water and sanitation sector face crippling shortfalls and still need US $73 and $11 million, respectively. Although the response to needs in agriculture and livestock sectors have been better at about 40 percent of needs meet, substantial requirements remain for animal health, feed and fodder bank development. The Government and partners must urgently address these shortfalls both to save lives and to protect and build assets over the longer term. Source: Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Agency (DPPA) and Sectoral Task Forces. Graphics by FEWS NET. Pastoral Areas Update: Somali Region and Borena Zone of Oromiya Region Successive years of drought, livestock losses, escalating food prices with significant declines in livestock prices, and productive asset depletion have resulted in this year s humanitarian crisis in pastoral areas. The current food security situation is rapidly deteriorating as the jillal (dry) season progresses. More than thirty percent of the population currently relies on humanitarian assistance (Figure 5). With the possibility of below-normal rainfall for the coming gu/ganna season, these numbers could increase significantly. Alarming rates of malnutrition have been reported in January in selected woredas of Somali region and all woredas in Borena zone. In spite of on-going food and non-food aid interventions, these nutritional indicators are still very worrying (Figure 6). According to recent survey results, the prevalence of the Global Acute Malnutrition rates (GAM rates) in children under five in all selected woredas of Somali region is above the critical 15 percent threshold established by the Ethiopian Emergency Nutrition Assessment Guidelines and accepted international standards. The conditions in Borena zone are also serious. According to field level information, vulnerable groups, such as children aged 6-10 years and pregnant and lactating women, face a worse situation. As a result of poor pasture and water conditions, livestock deaths have been reported in all the affected areas. In addition, a significant influx of livestock from Kenya and Somalia is putting more pressure on the already scarce water and pasture resources. The current situation is fragile and could quickly deteriorate given the extremely poor prevailing food security conditions. Urgent actions to prevent further deterioration in the nutritional status and rising mortality rates among the affected populations include: o Timely delivery of the food aid. o Increased provision of targeted supplementary feeding for moderately malnourished and vitamin A supplementation. o Measles and meningitis vaccinations. o Implement OTP/TFP (Outpatient Therapeutic Feeding Program (OTP) and regular TFP) in all affected woredas. o Establishing mobile health programs and supporting the existing hospitals to address immediate health needs. o Initiating school feeding program is also highly recommended due to the high rate of absenteeism and school closure. Food aid and nutrition related interventions alone, especially at current target levels, are insufficient to prevent asset loss or the progressive destitution of the population. Continuous depletion of productive assets, even among better-off households, has made households even more vulnerable to future shocks and limited their ability to reestablish normal pastoral livelihoods. In addition to increasing nutritional interventions, non-food interventions in the areas of health, livestock, water and environmental sanitation need to be scaled up. According to recent information from UNICEF and UN-OCHA, US $13 million is urgency required for southern zones of Somali and Borena zone for water and environmental sanitation, health and nutrition, destocking and emergency livestock feeding programs. The government and donors also need to attempt to address longer term issues, such as creating market outlets for pastoralists. Concerted efforts are being made by the government, donors and NGOs working in the area to respond to the crisis and monitor the situation. The Federal Government has activated the Government Crisis Committee, which is chaired by the DPPA Director General and reports directly to the Deputy Prime Minister. This committee, which is composed of representatives of the line ministries (mainly Task Force chairs) of MoARD, MoH and Ministry of Water Resources, has already deployed four teams to the affected areas and will further assess the situation to facilitate response. The Ministry of Defense is also establishing military escorts for relief food trucks to protect against looting and expedite deliveries to selected hotspots. 2 The non-food sector basically includes agriculture and livestock; health and nutrition; water and environment; and coordination. Page 3 of 6

4 Figure 5: Severity of Food Insecurity in Pastoral Crisis Areas Source: Various field reports from DPPB, WFP, SC-UK, SC-USA and others. Figure 6: Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) Surveyed in January 2006 for Selected Woredas of Pastoral Areas Source: Emergency Nutrition Coordination Unit (ENCU) DPPA. Surveys conducted by DPPA, SC-UK, SC-US, GOAL, and CARE. Note: Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) above 10%, in the presence of aggravating factors, is considered serious and above 15% critical. Aggravating factors include poor household food accessibility; inadequate safe water supplies and sanitation. 95 % CI Confidence Intervals it is generally accepted that we are 95% certain that the true prevalence of malnutrition lies in the range given. Page 4 of 6

5 Market Analysis Following the 2005/06 meher season bumper harvest estimate, cereal prices should have started to decline during the harvest period (October ) 3. Instead, absolute cereal prices showed signs of stability in November and increased in December 2005 and January 2006 in Addis Ababa (Figures 7 and 8). Figure 7: Addis Ababa Wholesale Prices for Selected Staple Cereals Contrary to estimates of very high production, January 2006 cereal prices in Addis Ababa are 50 percent higher than the average (Jan Jan 2005) and 30 percent higher than the same time last year (last year prices increased by 27 percent compared to the year before). Current cereal prices are more than 105 percent higher than those of Even in the typical surplus producing areas of the west, where one would expect the over-supply to be most apparent, prices are well above average. Country wide cereal and general food price indices have followed the same abnormal trend in contrast to the previous years. No comparable price data is available from the pastoral areas. However, SC-US and ACDI/VOCA information from southern zones of Somali Region and Borena Zone of Oromiya Region shows that cereal prices have been steadily rising in recent months, while livestock prices and demand have been falling. Unfavorable terms of trade for pastoralists are expected to exacerbate the food security situation, particularly given the current levels of livestock mortality. Figure 8: Real Retail Prices of White Maize in Addis Ababa: 13 Month Trend and Monthly Average Very high prices at this time of the year seem to indicate that supply is very tight. Possible reasons for these high prices include political instability (forcing farmers to hold grains); high level prices helping farmers to hold more grain in stock; grain purchases by cooperatives and unions; ongoing local purchase of food aid; increased informal cross-border trade; injection of cash into the economy via the safety net payments and budgetary support at woreda level, which provides salary payments; repayment of credit to woredas is now spread throughout the year; higher livestock prices for good quality animals; reduction in food aid with start of safety net payments in cash; and lower production in than was estimated 12 months ago). To ameliorate the possible negative impact of escalating cereal prices, the government through the Ethiopian Grain Trade Enterprise Source: Data archives of FEWS NET/Ethiopia, and Ethiopian Grain Trade Enterprise (EGTE). Graphics by FEWS NET/Ethiopia. Notes: 1. Prices are expressed in Ethiopian Birr per Quintal. 2. One Quintal = 100 kg; 1 Ethiopian Birr 12 US Cents. (EGTE) 4 started to sell grain in different urban areas during early February at relatively lower prices than the prevailing market prices. The government, through the Ministry of Trade and Industry, has also indefinitely banned the export of all grain products, including teff, maize, sorghum and wheat. The government is further attempting to release grain into urban areas through grain cooperatives and unions. Despite the government s concurrent purchase of grain from the traditional surplus areas of the west, and donor and government plans to purchase about 190,000 MT of grain for food aid locally 5, the on-going stabilizing efforts seem to be having the intended effect on the market, at least in the short run. According to field level information, not only are prices stabilizing (though at a high level), the grain flow has increased in many terminal markets during the first half of February. Without these interventions, prices could have further escalated, restricting food access for many households reliant on markets. As stabilization efforts are costly and complicated, it may become difficult to maintain the current efforts for an extended period. The next couple of months will be critical in determining whether the current cereal price stabilization efforts will have a sustainable impact or not. While the sustainability of EGTE and the Ministry of Trade s efforts remains to be seen, market-stabilization must also involve other stakeholders including donors, NGOs and private grain traders who can play a significant role, at least in the short run, in helping poor consumers to get lower prices at the market. 3 Farm gate prices should fall below cost of production. 4 EGTE has acquired about 60,000 MT of grain from EFSRA in addition to about 10,000 MT of grain in their stock. 5 A total budget of 37 million US $ has been allocated by donors and NGOs for the purchase and transport of about 100,000 MT of food grains to the EFSR. Tenders were issued by the DPPA for the purchase of 18,000 MT in February. The remaining balance of 80,000 MT is to be purchased in the coming few months. On the other hand, close to 91,000 MT of grain is planned to be purchased for the food transfer component of PSNP. Page 5 of 6

6 Coordination among various agencies engaged in stabilization efforts is critical to avoid speculation and consequent price hikes. Any local purchase or sale in the coming months, therefore, has to be synchronized, preferably under the auspicious of a coordinating committee (like DPPA and/or EFSRA). Weather Update Normally, January is a dry period and the belg-season rains begin in the second half of February over the northern highlands and southwestern parts of the country, and by mid-april, the rains spread to almost all parts of the country and approach their peak. This year, however, the normal onset pattern of the rains looks to be disrupted. Well-established rains did not occur in the northeastern highlands where rains are usually expected to start. Few days of consecutive rains were reported late during the second dekad of February covering areas along the Rift Valley, starting from North and South Wello in the northeastern highlands, and central Oromiya Region to southwestern SNNPR and the highlands of Yabello in Borena Zone. These rains were moderately heavy, with light showers observed in some places. The south and southeastern parts of the country remained seasonably dry. These areas expect rains starting in mid-march. According to the National Meteorological Agency (NMA), the main rainfall system has been on and off, suggesting that a normal belg weather system is still not well-established and may not appear over Ethiopia in the immediate future. The NMA climate outlook for the belg/gu/ganna season (March-May) indicates normal to above-normal rainfall for parts of central, southwestern and western half highlands of the country but, below normal rainfall over the mainly belg-dependent northeastern highlands, and south and southeastern pastoral lowland areas, indicating the possibility of a second consecutive failed (poor) season in the latter marginal areas (Figure 9). Figure 9: 2006 Belg/Gu/Ganna Season (March May) Climate Outlook This weather outlook, from early February, forecasted that: o the onset of the rains will be late; o weak and irregular rainfall performance in the month of April, when seasonal peak is expected in all areas. So far the first prediction (late onset) seems to be proved correct as rains have started but disrupted again. Hence, the prospect for this seasonal rain in the short run appears poor. Impact of the possible poor belg/gu/ganna rains In the northern highlands, (North Shewa, South and North Wello, and South Tigray), the rains are already too late to allow normal land Source: Based on National Meteorological Service Agency s Climate Outlook forum, Feb Graphics by FEWS NET. preparation. If adequate rains come by mid-march, planting of belg crops could still be possible but yields will be reduced by inadequate plowing and hence poor belg production is expected. In the southwestern farming areas (parts of SNNPR, including Konso, Derashe, Burji and North Omo), the belg-season is the main agricultural season, producing a harvest in June/July. Here, land preparation and planting for long-cycle crops is on-going and normal harvest is expected despite the lateness of the seasonal rains. Since the northwestern and western areas include most of the high potential and surplus-producing areas with normally excess rainfall during the growing season, the forecast of near-normal rainfall situation should not lead to a significant change in crop production compared to normal. Southern and southeastern pastoral areas are marginal areas where rainfall irregularities have adversely affected the lives and livelihood of the population in recent years. In the southern pastoral areas (especially in Borena), the extension of the dry season, following last year s failed rainy seasons, is causing very serious shortages of water and food both for people and for the livestock on which they depend. In the southeast (southern zones of Somali Region), the rains are not yet considered late, as they normally start in March or April when the belg system extends to the region. However, current conditions are extremely poor due to last year s cumulative rain failures and can only worsen as long as the dry season continues. The probability of below-normal rainfall is particularly worrisome for the extreme southern portion of these areas, where a shortage of pasture and water is already reaching its peak due to inadequate precipitation during the preceding 2005 gu (March-May) and deyr (late September-November) seasons. In all these pastoral areas the gu/ganna-season rains are the main annual rains. Page 6 of 6