Afghanistan Monthly Food Security Bulletin August 2004

Transcription

1 Afghanistan Network on Food Security Afghanistan Monthly Food Security Bulletin August 2004 No Alert Watch Warning Emergency Highlights The Transitional Islamic State of Afghanistan and the UN have launched a joint appeal for assistance to tackle the problems arising from drought and water shortages. Climatic changes and very low precipitation have caused a severe shortage of drinking and irrigation water in many parts of the country. Field assessments indicate further declines in water sources compared to last year and recent drought years. Around 8,000 families are reported displaced due to shortage of water. The Government and the UN Joint Appeal for Assistance The Transitional Islamic State of Afghanistan and the United Nations have launched a joint appeal (The Decline Towards Crisis: Afghanistan s Deteriorating Drought Situation) on September 1 to respond together to the immediate needs arising form the continued drought in the country. The appeal covers a period of six months (September end of February 2005) requesting assistance of US$71,373,021 (US$51.8 million for food and US$19.4 million for non-food items). It focuses on delivery of drinking water, food aid and other basic items to affected populations. The appeal reads 2004 was the sixth year in which rain and snowfall were significantly below average in Afghanistan, exacerbating the chronic water shortage that has been plaguing the country since Populations are now threatened in localised pockets in at least seventeen provinces (Badghis, Daikundi, Farah, Faryab, Ghazni, Ghor, Helmand, Hirat, Jawzjan, Kandahar, Khost, Nangarhar, Nimroz, Paktia, Paktika, Uruzgan, and Zabul) across the country. The current national emergency in Afghanistan is the result of the combination of loss of ground water associated with diminished snow-packs, and less rainfall. Inter-ministerial teams are assessing the situation in those provinces that are considered drought affected or facing water shortages. Preliminary findings of the joint Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission indicate significant crop losses in many parts of country. This is confirmed by satellite imagery (Water Requirement Satisfaction Index), where many provinces show less than 50 percent of moisture needs were met. In addition to climatic changes, uncertified and untested seeds, diluted and low quality fertilizers as well as plant diseases are among the main factors causing crop losses/failure. About 37 percent of the population will not be able to cover their basic food needs through the harvest in 2005, compared to 20 percent after last year s bumper harvest. Grain prices in southern parts of the country have increased by almost 50 percent in the past year. Purchasing power of casual labor has kept pace with the increase in the wheat prices. Stakeholders in the Flash Appeal include Government Ministries, UN Agencies, International Organizations, and Non-Governmental Organizations who have formulated projects across five sectors: Water, Food, Agriculture, Family Shelter and Non-food items, and Emergency Employment/Conservation/Infrastructure. The Stakeholders are planning to provide drinking water to populations most in need; to rehabilitate water sources such as karezes (surface catchments) and shallow wells; targeting food distributions to the rural vulnerable; school and health centre feeding; and food-for-work and non-food assistance to the most severely affected districts in priority provinces. Mitigation activities will be undertaken to support these interventions, including food for work and cash for work schemes, providing emergency employment opportunities, rehabilitation of water sources and watershed management, in an effort to offset the expected continuing dryness after the winter. Distribution of improved seeds and fertilisers where crop yields have markedly eroded seed stocks will take place. The Afghan Network on Food Security is an initiative of USAID s Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET). The networks members comprise of FEWS NET, Ministry of Rural Rehabilitation and Development (MRRD/Vulnerability Analysis Unit), Ministry of Agriculture and Animal Husbandry (MAAH)/FAAHM, Ministry of Health (MOH), the UN World Food Programme (WFP) and the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

2 Climate Changes and its Impact on Water Availability, Crop Production, and Food Security in Afghanistan Water Shortage Very low and erratic precipitation, as well as higher-than-normal temperatures resulted in early and rapid depletion of snowpack, increased evaporation of surface water and a continuing drop in the water table. The result is severe water shortages for drinking and irrigation in many parts of the country. The accumulated precipitation of the period October 1, 2003 June 39, 2004 (see map below) shows significantly less precipitation in the southern and eastern provinces than the long-term average. For many areas in the south, this has translated into water stress for agricultural production. In the northern and some central areas, the precipitation is closer to the long-term average, but still lower. The below normal levels of rainfall were exacerbated by un-seasonal/poor timing relative to the growing season. In some districts, a severe shortage of water was being experienced even as that same district was being damaged by floods due to untimely rainfall. During the drought period, a high percentage of shallow wells, karezes, springs, and surface water have gone dry, and the underground water table has dropped significantly. The Interministerial assessment of 12 provinces (May-June 2004) indicated a further decline in water sources compared to last year (see the graph below). The areas showing the largest declines in shallow well water relative to last year are Farah (20 percent), Ghor (13 percent) and Paktia (11 percent). There are reports of people having to purchase drinking water in some areas, which will force poor households to sell already limited assets. The Transitional Islamic State of Afghanistan intends to conduct another round of inter-ministerial assessment to analyze the situation in 14 more provinces that are considered vulnerable to drought and impacted by water shortage. Percentage of wells active in summer 2003 and summer 2004 relative to before drought years (Inter-ministerial Assessment) 100% 90% 80% 70% Percent Active 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Ghazni Ghor Farah Helmand Hirat Kandahar Khost Nimroz Paktia Paktika Urozgan Zabul Activ e wells in % 80% 62% 60% 91% 71% 76% 80% 54% 84% 32% 31% Activ e wells in % 67% 42% 54% 81% 68% 76% 79% 43% 80% 29% 24% Population displacements, mainly due to shortage of drinking water, have been reported to UNHCR from Helmand, Faryab, Kandahar, Ghor, Wardak, and central highlands (8,000 people as of September 1). Displacement is currently occurring in localized pockets. However, unless immediate actions are not taken to assist people in those severely affected areas, the potential for more displacement in the next two months has been reported to UNHCR in most of these areas, and in other provinces in the south, southwestern and central areas.

3 Crop Production The FAO/WFP fielded a Joint Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission (CFSAM) between July 8 and August 7 to estimate the cereal harvest, following significantly reduced and erratic precipitation during the 2003/04 cropping season. The CFSAM was carried out jointly with staff from MAAH and provincial agricultural departments, with additional financial support from USAID. The preliminary findings of the assessment indicate serious reductions in the harvest this year compared with the record harvest in 2003, and even with the average harvest of The decrease in harvest is due to a combination of reduced precipitation, higher-than-normal temperature, reduced topsoil moisture, untimely and un-seasonal rains causing delay in cultivation and flooding, hailstorms, and cold spells in some areas. Other contributing factors are a lack of improved seeds, use of uncertified and untested seeds, diluted and very low quality fertilizers, plant diseases, and shortage of agrochemicals. The mission found that a number of international organizations have distributed improved seeds in various provinces, although some of these seeds have reportedly never been tested in the country or in these specific agro-climatic zones. The results have been disastrous for some farmers. Unfortunately, there is no quality check or quality control on any of the imported fertilizers or agro-chemicals. Therefore, diluted and very low quality fertilizers and agro-chemicals are very common, causing a sharp decline in their use. The mission indicated that in addition to the vulnerable population currently targeted by WFP and other agencies, targeted food assistance seems to be necessary in the worst-affected areas. Crop failure (shown in the map above) may be a good indicator of areas where additional intervention is needed. However, an inter-agency needs assessment is still necessary to identify vulnerable populations and to devise appropriate and timely interventions during the 2004/05 marketing year. Vegetation conditions between January and May 2004, taken from Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) satellite imagery was compared with the same time period last year and the average of the previous five years. In the northern and western rain-fed areas, this year s vegetation was substantially lower than last year, but similar to the 5 year average (drought years). Vegetation in irrigated areas appears to be much lower compared to last year throughout most of the country, with exception of the centre of the country and pockets in the northeast. Transitional Islamic State of Afghanistan MRRD HIRAT FARAH NIMROZ AFGHANISTAN NDVI Comparisons 2004 vs 5 year average (1999 to 2003) Irrigated areas BADGHIS GHOR HILMAND FARYAB KANDAHAR JAWZJAN SARI PUL URUZGAN BALKH BAMYAN ZABUL SAMANGAN GHAZNI WARDAK KUNDUZ PARWAN BAGHLAN PAKTIKA KABUL TAKHAR PAKTYA KHOST Food and Agriculture Organization BADAKHSHAN NURISTAN NANGARHAR KUNAR HIRAT Legend FARAH NIMROZ BADGHIS HILMAND <-30% -30% to -16% -15% to -6% -5% to +5% +6% to +15% >15% FARYAB World Food Programme GHOR Kilometers The boundaries and names on the maps do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations, WFP Afghanistan VAM Unit, JAWZJAN KANDAHAR AFGHANISTAN FAO/WFP Joint Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission - 8 July - 5 August 2004 Irrigated Crop Losses Compared to Last Year (2003) SARI PUL URUZGAN ZABUL BALKH BAMYAN SAMANGAN GHAZNI N WARDAK KUNDUZ BAGHLAN PARWAN PAKTIKA KABUL LOGAR TAKHAR KAPISA PAKTYA LAGHMAN KHOST BADAKHSHAN NURISTAN NANGARHAR KUNAR Crop Loss: Legend Morethan 70% 50% - 69% 30% - 49% 15% - 29% 5% - 14% No Data World Food Programme Kilometers The boundaries and names on the maps do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations, WFP Afghanistan VAM Unit, Comparing this year s irrigated vegetation to the last 5 (drought years) average, the western, southern, eastern and parts of the north are much lower, while the remaining parts are either similar to long-term average or slightly better in some central parts of the country. Similarly, the Water Requirement Satisfaction Index for the agricultural growing season is less than 50 percent in many provinces, which means significant crop losses or even total failure in some areas. Consequently, cereal production is likely to be much lower this year when compared to the harvest of 2003, and in some areas lower than or nearing the yields of previous drought years.

4 Food and Livelihood Security Situation An extrapolation of the National Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (NRVA) 2003 (done in August 1 ) suggests that 37 percent of the population will not be able to cover their basic food and non-food needs through the harvest of This compares with an overall food insecurity rate estimated to be 20 percent after the exceptional harvest of Nimroz (92 percent), Kandahar (70 percent), Paktika (60 percent), Zabul (57 percent), Kunar (56 percent), Logar (54 percent), Faryab (53 percent) are provinces with over 50 percent of the population not being able to meet their basic food needs for the full winter and spring season. When accounting for population size, Nangahar, Herat, Ghazni, Badakshan, and Uruzgan are the five provinces with the largest number of individuals not able to meet their basic food needs until the next harvest. Of these five provinces, Badakshan, is the most surprising, as reports note that agricultural production was good in the region this year. However, because of the large population size and the under-reporting of poppy income, it shows up as one of the provinces with a large number of individuals in need of assistance. It is important to realize that this large number of individuals reflects only 27 percent of the total population of that province. Percentage & estimated number of food insecure by province, including estimates of person months support needed to cover 100%-80% of need. Latest pop estimates - CSO estimated % pop <2100 kcal/capita Average # months of food gap estimated pop <2100 kcal/capita estimated person months support (100% needs) estimated person months support (80% needs) Food insecure population increase Province Nangarhar 1,242,515 45% ,123 1,069, , ,352 Faryab 946,507 53% ,052 1,151, , ,976 Hirat 1,304,485 34% , , , ,364 Kabul 936,158 46% , , , ,870 Kandahar 594,450 70% ,891 1,580,838 1,189, ,412 Ghazni 1,049,606 34% , , , ,757 Badakhshan 907,965 27% , , , ,729 Parwan 549,023 44% , , , ,504 Hilmand 691,400 33% , , , ,829 Kunar 383,247 56% , , , ,695 Balkh 753,327 28% , , ,148 57,482 Sari Pul 504,786 40% , , , ,941 Paktika 333,400 60% , , , ,308 Wardak 481,083 38% , , ,266 30,701 Paktya 553,704 33% , , , ,120 Logar 303,862 54% , , ,765 60,858 Ghor 628,287 26% , , ,902 46,506 Badghis 548,550 29% , ,614 91, ,530 Uruzgan 636,700 23% , ,445 71, ,048 Laghman 394,694 34% , , ,706 52,993 Nimroz 141,400 92% , , , ,438 Zabul 219,800 57% , , ,576 97,672 Bamyan 281,098 43% , , ,986 72,734 Kapisa 382,181 27% , ,227 50,069 79,485 Baghlan 707,868 13% ,832 26,997 7,333 40,837 Samangan 266,704 32% , ,691 74,930 51,023 Takhar 707,741 11% ,776 21,873 8,693 38,799 Jawzjan 295,521 25% ,552 78,873 39,412 24,906 Khost 301,700 23% ,996 62,663 40,467 38,845 Farah 314,200 15% ,508 16,428 3,766 30,243 Nuristan 129,909 27% ,571 40,195 25,798 18,725 Kunduz 584,809 0% 0.0 2, National 18,076,680 37% 1.8 6,336,053 12,965,207 9,020,579 3,609,338 The results for each province are presented above in five ways. The percent of the population expected to be food insecure by province, the average number of months each household is unable to meet basic subsistence requirements, the food-insecure population, the number of person months support needed to cover this need (assuming either 100 percent or 80 percent of food security needs will be met). The final column presents the increase in the number of food-insecure from 2003 to Nationally there has been an increase of 17 percent in the estimated food insecure population compared to the 2003 NRVA estimate of 20 percent. 1 The NRVA food security component was updated by using the NDVI (comparison of NDVI from January to May 2003 and 2004) and market prices.

5 It is interesting to note that the dietary diversity analysis of the 2003 NRVA data identified a further 18 percent of the population with per capita energy consumption between 2,100 and 3,200 kcal/capita/day, but with very poor dietary diversity, i.e. energy requirements being met largely through cereals. This suggests that this population may be transiently food insecure, as energy needs are being met immediately after a good harvest through cereal consumption either from own production or purchased at low post-harvest weeks prices. This suggests that as such households move away from the harvest into leaner periods, both dietary diversity and energy consumption may fall below acceptable norms. Market Analysis Estimated food insecure population per districts- <2100 kcals based on all wheat consumption & essential non-food expenses Food insecure population per district ,000 10,000-50,000 50, , , , , , , ,000 Source: Vulnerability Analysis Unit - MRRD NRVA 2003 modelled data - Aug 2004 In the southern and eastern parts of the country, grain prices have increased by almost 50 percent in the past year. As of June 2004, this trend has reversed and prices are currently decreasing as wheat imports from Pakistan enter the markets. In the north, wheat prices have also increased throughout the year, although to a lesser extent than prices in the south. Good harvests in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan are expected to contribute to keeping prices low in the major northern markets. Wheat Prices in Afs/kg - South & West Wheat Prices in Afs/kg North Prices gradually increased through the year from low point. Kabul Jalalabad Hirat Kandahar Wheat prices in regional Afghan markets over the last 12 months. Connected northern markets, Maymana shock? Mazari Sharif Maymana Fayzabad Source: MRRD/VAU (Contributed by: WFP, ACF, SC-US, AKDN) As wheat prices were considered extremely low last year, the increase throughout the year was seen as a positive shift for the country s wheat producers. In the larger markets, casual labor rates have shown a gradual increase over the last year. Casual Labour in Afs/day South & West Casual Labour in Afs/day North Prices gradually increased through the year in all markets Seasonally variable, overall increases 0 0 Kabul Jalalabad Hirat Kandahar Fayzabad Mazari Sharif Maymana Bamyan Source: MRRD/VAU (Contributed by: WFP, ACF, SC-US, AKDN) Casual labor rates in regional Afghan markets over the last 12 months.

6 In smaller regional markets, casual labor rates are still higher relative to a year ago. However, sporadic hikes and drops have occurred throughout the year, which can be explained by strong links to seasonal agricultural labor demands. Casual Labour Relative to Wheat Price South & West Kandahar & Jalalabad increasing labour purchasing power 8.0 Kabul Jalalabad Hirat Kandahar Casual Labour Relative to Wheat Price North Declining labour purchasing power, but more than south 10.0 Fayzabad Mazari Sharif Maymana Source: MRRD/VAU (Contributed by: WFP, ACF, SC-US, AKDN) Casual labor rates/wheat prices in regional Afghan markets over the last 12 months Because of the overall price increase of both casual labor and wheat, the purchasing power of most households reliant on casual labor as an income source has remained constant for the most part. The purchasing power of casual labor for wheat in the north has declined, but is still higher than that in the southern markets. Food-Security Assistance To assist with programming decisions between cash and food-based employment responses, the data from the NRVA 2003 were analyzed to look at those villages reporting difficulties accessing markets during the winter. The map below shows those districts where a majority, minority or no villages reported winter market access problems. As shown on the map, there are many districts that are snow-bound or with no access during the winter season. Any food or non-food assistance needs to be pre-positioned in those areas for distribution during winter. Winter market access problem reported by districts NRVA 2003 Source: Vulnerability Analysis Unit MRRD NRVA 2003 modeled data Aug To subscribe or for further information on this product, please contact: Karim Rahimi Tel: (93) FEWS NET Tel: (93) c/o MRRD krahimi@fews.net Kabul, Afghanistan Web: Current satellite-based climate and agricultural data on Afghanistan are available from NOAA and USGS at the following websites: