Afghanistan Pre-Harvest Assessment 2015 Preliminary Findings

Transcription

1 Afghanistan Pre-Harvest Assessment 2015 Preliminary Findings Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock (MAIL) Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) United Nations World Food Program (WFP) Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) June 07, 2015 Kabul, Afghanistan

2 Outline 1. Food Security Definition and Dimensions 2. Overview of Pre-Harvest Assessment 2015: Background, Objectives 3. Methodology: Sampling, Tools, Key Indicators 4. Agro-climatic Factors 5. Regional Context 6. Regional Findings 7. Key Messages 8. Next Steps

3 1. Food Security Definition Food security is the state at which all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life. (Source: World Food Summit, 1996)

4 The Four Dimensions of Food Security

5 2. Overview of Pre-harvest assessment 2015 Background: Usually results of Government crop assessment (MAIL s Annual Agriculture Prospect Report) come out in July or even later resulting in information gaps to timely inform response programming and decision making. Major lead agencies are MAIL, FEWS NET, FAO, and WFP To date, 6 assessments were conducted in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015.

6 Objectives of the assessment: To pre determine key areas of concern that may likely affect food security situation To identify types of shocks that may cause acute food insecurity To perceive the status of upcoming wheat harvests

7 3. Methodology Pre-Harvest Assessment is mainly qualitative, applying a combination of various techniques for convergence of evidence including: remote sensing analysis desk review of secondary documents ground data collection These inputs and assessment results are used to formulate a Semester Food Security Outlook

8 Methodology - Sampling Coverage: All 34 provinces of the country, but with a higher focus and precision in higher wheat producing provinces Districts selection is based on updated MAIL/FAO Land Cover data 2012 Minimum of two districts per province. Total 70 districts One district with intensive irrigated land One district with low irrigated land Minimum of two communities per each selected district. Total 140 communities One community with intensive irrigated land One community with low irrigated land

9 Methodology - Tools Three tools were used in the Assessment: 1. Department of Agriculture Irrigation and Livestock (DAIL) questionnaire (one per province, total: 34) 2. UN-NGO questionnaire (three per province, total: 102) 3. Community questionnaire (four per province, total: 280)

10 Methodology - Key Indicators: Area under wheat cultivation (All sources) Wheat performance (All sources) Wheat harvest outlook (All sources) Pasture condition (All sources) Agricultural Labor wage (Community) Livestock prices (Community) Wheat grain and wheat flour price (MAIL) Terms of Trade (ToT)

11 4. Agro-Climatic Factors Precipitation Temperature Vegetation (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index-NDVI) Water Availability

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16 Source: FEWS NET/USGS

17 Source: FEWS NET/USGS

18 Afghanistan Seasonal Calendar

19 Pakistan Wheat Harvest: 5. Regional Context Main wheat flour supplier likely to maintain smooth supply. Anticipated wheat production of 26.4 million tons wheat production expected this year, higher than last year and above average. Kazakhstan Wheat Harvest: Main wheat flour supplier likely maintain smooth supply to Tajikistan and Afghanistan. Forecast wheat production at 17.2 million tons of grain in 2015, the same as last year.

20 6. Regional Findings

21 Eastern Provinces Nuristan, Nangarhar, Kunar, and Laghman CATEGORY Area under wheat cultivation Wheat performance Wheat harvest outlook Agriculture Labor wage Pasture condition Livestock prices Regional average wheat price Terms of Trade (ToT) Acute food insecure group FINDINGS Irrigated Similar to last year, Rainfed slightly increased Growth stage: harvesting Shocks: Conflict, mild rust, Flood only in three districts of Nangarhar Province Better than the last two years Higher than last year Better than last year Higher (500 Afs per sheep) than last year Decreased than last year Agricultural labor/wheat: Significantly Improved by 18% than last year Livestock/Wheat: Slightly Improved by 6% than last year IDPs, returnees, flood-affected

22 Laghman Province, Qargahie District, Aghra Abad Village, April 30, 2015

23 Northeastern Provinces Takhar, Kunduz, and Baghlan CATEGORY FINDINGS Area under wheat cultivation Wheat performance Wheat harvest outlook Agriculture Labor wage Pasture condition Livestock prices Regional average wheat price Terms of Trade (ToT) Acute food insecure group Higher than last year Growth stage: heading, emergence (higher elevations) Shocks: Conflict, Small scale flooding and landslide Better than the last two years Similar to last year Better than last year Higher (500 Afs per sheep) than last year Decreased than last year Agricultural labor/wheat: Significantly Improved by 10% than last year Sheep/Wheat: Significantly Improved by 18% than last year IDPs, flood and landslide-affected HH

24 Baghlan Province, Andrab, May 4, 2015

25 Kunduz Province, Khan Abad District, May 4, 2015

26 Northeastern Province Badakhshan CATEGORY Area under wheat cultivation Wheat performance Wheat harvest outlook Agriculture Labor wage Pasture condition Livestock prices Regional average wheat price Terms of Trade (ToT) Acute food insecure group Slightly higher than last year FINDINGS Growth stage: heading, emergence (higher elevations) Shocks: small scale flooding, landslide and avalanche Better than the last two years Slightly lower than last year Better than last year Decreased than last year ( Afs) Similar to last year Agriculture Labour/Wheat ToT: Slightly deteriorated by 2% from last year Sheep/Wheat ToT: Significantly deteriorated by 17% from last year Flood, landslide and avalanche-affected HH

27 Pasture area of Zebak district in Badakhshan province

28 Pre-Harvest time in Arghanjkhah district of Badakhshan province

29 Northern Provinces Balkh, Samangan, Faryab, Sar-i-pul, and Jawzjan CATEGORY Area under wheat cultivation Slightly higher than last year FINDINGS Wheat performance Wheat harvest outlook Agriculture Labor wage Pasture condition Livestock prices Regional average wheat price Terms of Trade (ToT) Acute food insecure group Growth stage: heading (lower elevations) Shocks: Conflict and Small scale flooding Better than the last two years Decreased than last year Improved than last year Higher ( Afs per sheep) than last year Decreased than last year Agricultural labor/wheat: Significantly deteriorated by 10% than last year Sheep/Wheat: Significantly improved by 14% than last year IDPs, flood affected HH and frost affected stone-fruit farms

30 Samangan Province, Aybak District, May 12, 2015

31 Jawzjan Province, Khawja Dukoh District, May 9, 2015

32 North-Central Provinces Parwan, Kapisa and Panjshir CATEGORY Area under wheat cultivation Wheat performance Wheat harvest outlook Agriculture Labor wage Pasture condition Livestock prices Regional average wheat price Term of Trade (ToT) Acute (transitory) food insecure group FINDINGS Irrigated: It is the same in Kapisa and Panjshir decreased in Parwan Rain-fed: It is the same in Kapisa and Panjshir but increased in Parwan Growth stage: Parwand and Kapisa Milking stage and Panjshir heading stage Shocks: Natural disasters (flood), and pest & diseases Better in Parwan and Kapisa and worsen in Panjshir than both previous years Increased than last year Improved than last year Increased than last year decreased than last year Agricultural labor/wheat: Significantly improved by 23% from last year Sheep/wheat: Significantly improved by 18% from last year Natural disaster affected HHs

33 Wheat field with smut disease

34 Wheat field in Panjshir with weeds

35 CATEGORY Area under wheat cultivation Wheat performance Wheat harvest outlook Agriculture Labor wage Pasture condition Livestock prices Regional average wheat price Term of Trade (ToT) Acute (transitory) food insecure group South-Central Provinces Kabul, Logar, Wardak and Ghazni FINDINGS Irrigated: increased in Kabul and Logar, the same in Wardak and decreased in Ghazni Rain-fed: increased in Logar, the same in Kabul and Wardak and decreased in Ghazni Growth stage: Flowering/Tellering stages Shocks: Natural disasters (flood), and pest & diseases Better than last two years better in Kabul and Logar than both previous years, in Wardak it will be the same with 2014 and better than 2013 and in Ghazni it will be worsen Decreased than last year Kabul improved than both previous ears, in Wardak and Logar it has been worsen partially and in Ghazni it is improved than 2014 but worsen than 2013 Decreased than last year Increased than last year Agricultural labor/wheat: Slightly deteriorated by 9% from last year Sheep/wheat: Slightly deteriorated by 4% from last year Natural disaster affected HHs

36 Western Provinces Hirat, Farah, Badghis, and Nimroz CATEGORY Area under wheat cultivation Wheat performance Wheat harvest outlook Agriculture Labor wage Pasture condition Livestock prices Regional average wheat price Term of Trade (ToT) Newly acute food insecure group Irrigated : Increased than last year (5-10%) Rain-fed : Increased than last year (10-20%) FINDINGS Growth stage: vegetative and flowering Shocks: Frost, flood in Badghis, storm in Farah and plant pests in Nimroz. Better than last two years Slightly decreased than last year Better than last year all provinces, except Nimroz Increased ( Afs) per sheep, except Nimroz Decreased than last year Agriculture Labour/Wheat ToT: Slightly deteriorated by 6% from last year Sheep/Wheat ToT: Significant improved by 38% from last year IDPs, returnees, flood affected HHs

37 Pre-Harvest time in Qadis district (Arbab Sawer village) of Badghis province

38 Plant disease in Abkamary district (Mubarakshah village) of Badghis province

39 Pre-Harvest time in Chakhansor district of Nimroz province

40 Livestock in Chakhansor district of Nimroz province

41 CATEGORY Central Highland Provinces Bamyan, Daykundi and Ghor FINDINGS Area under wheat cultivation Wheat performance Wheat harvest outlook Agriculture Labor wage Pasture condition Livestock prices Regional average wheat price Term of Trade (ToT) Newly acute food insecure group Irrigated: The same as last year in Bamyan & Daikundi, but increased in Ghor (Generally slight increase) Rainfed: The same as last year (increased in Ghor and decrease in Daykundi) Growth stage: vegetative and emergence Shocks: None in Ghor, but flood, low rainfall in Bamyan and Daykundi Less than last year for Bamyan & Daikundy, but better than last year in Ghor Decreased than last year Same as last year Slight increase than year Decreased than last year Agriculture Labour/Wheat ToT: Significantly deteriorated by 19% from last year Sheep/Wheat ToT: Significantly Improved by 14% from last year IDPs and flood affected HHs

42 CATEGORY Area under wheat cultivation Wheat performance Wheat harvest outlook Agriculture Labor wage Pasture condition Livestock prices Regional average wheat price Term of Trade (ToT) Acute (transitory) food insecure group South-western Provinces Kandahar, Hilamand, Zabul, and Uruzgan FINDINGS Irrigated: Slight increase in Kandahar & Zabul and slightly decreased in Helmand and Uruzgan than last year Rainfed: Significant decrease than last year Growth stage: Vegetative and flowering Shocks: localized flooding and frost Lower than last year Decreased than last year Poor than last year due to rainfall shortage Significantly decreased than last year Increased than last year Agriculture Labor/Wheat ToT: Significantly deteriorated by 23% from last year Sheep/Wheat ToT: Significantly deteriorated by 34% from last year IDPs and affected HHs by natural disaster

43 CATEGORY Area under wheat cultivation Wheat performance Wheat harvest outlook Agriculture Labor wage Pasture condition Livestock prices Regional average wheat price Term of Trade (ToT) Acute (transitory) food insecure group South-Eastern Provinces Paktya, Paktika and Khost FINDINGS Irrigated: The same as last year (Same in Paktika, increased in Khost and decreased in Paktya) Rain-fed: Decreased than last year Growth stage: Vegetative and flowering Shocks: Low snowfall and rainfall Lower than last two years Decreased than last year Poor than last year Decreased than last year Decreased than last year Agriculture Labor/Wheat: Significantly deteriorated by 21% from last year Sheep/Wheat ToT: Significantly deteriorated by 14% from last year IDPs and Flood affected HHs

44 7. Key Messages National wheat production in Afghanistan is likely to be slightly above last two years, due to relatively favorable weather and precipitation resulted in increased cultivation both rain-fed and irrigated wheat. Regional supply of wheat and wheat flour from Pakistan and Kazakhstan is likely to remain smooth due to good harvest in Pakistan and likely maintained export policy in both countries. Satellite data and reports indicate that spring pasture conditions have been favorable, supporting healthy body conditions for livestock. However, insecurity is preventing some households from accessing pastures. Natural disaster and conflict are likely to result in acute (transitory) food insecure groups including IDPs, returnees and those who lost livelihood assets.

45 Key Messages (continued) The incidence and severity of spring flooding has been less than last year, and the impact on national cereal harvests is expected to be minimal. However, floods have had significant adverse impact in valleys where they have taken place, particularly in parts of eastern Afghanistan. Wage labor/wheat ToT is likely to be improved in 3 regions, while deteriorated in 6 regions and Badakhshan province. Sheep/Wheat ToT is also likely to be improved in 6 regions due to good livestock and pasture condition, while deteriorated in 3 regions and Badakhshan province. Deteriorated ToTs in some regions is likely continues affecting the chronic food insecure segment of population.

46 8. Next steps To monitor and update on crop status in 6 provinces with late harvest in July- September 2015 (Badakhshan, Bamyan, Daykundi, Ghor, Ghazni and Badghis). To update on cash crop production (opium, orchards). Final report will be released by 30th June 2015.

47 Thank you for your attention! Questions?