Potential contribution of the REMOCLIC group to the CAAM studies

Transcription

1 March 3-5, 2012, Bangkok Potential contribution of the REMOCLIC group to the CAAM studies The first International Workshop of Climate Changes and Their Effects on Agriculture in Asian Monsoon Region Thanh NGO-DUC Department of Meteorology, Hanoi University of Science

2 REMOCLIC Research Group The REMOCLIC group: REgional MOdelling of CLImate Change Aims: gathering scientists to investigate the problems relating to the fields of Climate Modelling & CC Researchers from Hanoi University of Sciences National Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting Center University of Natural Resources and Environment Education: PhD candidates, MSc., undergraduate students

3 Recent research/project activities I. Observed data collection/data quality control and postprocessing tools II. Computing system development III. Related research projects: 1. Ensemble system for future climate projections (National project) 2. High-resolution downscaling for Vietnam: facilitating effective climate adaptation (Ausaid, Australia) 3. Impacts of Climate Change on Land Use Change in the Red River Delta and its Community Livelihood Change (ClimLandLive-Delta) (Danida, Denmark). 4. Information System for climate change induced water vulnerability reduction in the North Central Vietnam (Danida, Denmark)

4 Observed data collection/data quality control and post-processing tools ( ) Observed daily data of ~75 stations 7 sub-regions Temperature Relative humidity Wind speed Daily rainfall Evaporation Sunshine duration (some stations) Data quality control & post-processing tools have been developed. Can be used to link to agriculture activities!!

5 II. Computing system development /24 Head Nodes FC5 Q9450 Computing Network ~1TFlops ~200TB Interconnect Network: 1Gbps 10Gbps Internet U P S Computing Nodes Data & Man. & Pub. Net /24 Webmeteo Login Node Sun HTTP FTP PCs NAS Network connection optimization for parallel system Data storage optimization Two IT experts are full-time working

6 LINUX Cluster

7 III. Related research projects 1. Building an ensemble assimilation system for numerical weather model and an ensemble system for regional climate models to forecast and project extreme weather and climate events (National project) Dynamical downscaling 1. RegCM 2. REMO 3. CCAM 4. MM5 5. MRI-20km 6. COSMO 7. WRF

8 Models and experiments GCM boundary CMIP5 runs CCAM CCSM3.0 ECHAM MRI 20 km CCA M RegCM MM5 REMO WR F COSM O

9 Ho et al. (Climate Research, 2011): Detection of extreme climatic events from observed data and projection with RegCM3 over Vietnam

10 Climate Change in Central Vietnam 14 observation stations: daily data Period: (baseline), (near future projection) Ngo-Duc et al., in preparation

11 Near future temperature projection: vs A1B near-future temperature consistently increases over all the stations MMA suggests an amplification of seasonal variations [DJF vs JJA]

12 Near future precipitation projection: vs

13 2. High-resolution downscaling for Vietnam: facilitating effective climate adaptation (Ausaid, Australia) 10 km downscaling Time: Jan 2012-June 2013 Objective: 1.Improve Vietnam s understanding of the impacts of climate change 2.Integrate past and current research for a more complete assessment of the potential effects of climate change 3.Provide information necessary for appropriate planning and investment to adapt to climate change 4.Develop innovative communication tools to ensure that the data generated is widely accessible CSIRO-IMHEN-HUS

14 2. High-resolution downscaling for Vietnam: facilitating effective climate adaptation (Ausaid, Australia) 10 km downscaling Time: Jan 2012-June 2013 CSIRO-IMHEN-HUS Project components: 1.Observations/analyses/drivers 2.Dynamical downscaling 3.Analysis of climate projections 4.Regional sea-level projection 5.Assessing response options based upon climate change projections 6.Communication and management

15 3. Impacts of Climate Change on Land Use Change in the Red River Delta and its Community Livelihood Change (ClimLandLive-Delta) (Danida, Denmark) Project s activities: WP1 Research 1) Data inventory & collection 2) Climate change analysis 3) Land use change analysis 4) Livelihood and economic analysis 5) Terrain activities 6) Modelling Climate change/land use change/livelihood change WP2: Training & staff exchange WP3: Equipment WP4: Dissemination

16 ERA 850mb DJF ERA 850mb JJA Future climate over RRD Ngo-Duc et al. (2012, Sains Malaysiana, accepted) CCSM 850mb DJF CCSM 850mb JJA RegCM 850mb DJF RegCM 850mb JJA

17 Future climate over RRD

18 4. Information System for climate change induced water vulnerability reduction in the North Central Vietnam (Danida, Denmark) population of about 5.2 million inhabitants of which 70% are living in the coastal zone. - the second lowest GDP per capitazone in Vietnam - Most of those inhabitants depend on revenues from agricultural and aquacultural sectors (contributing up to 35.5% of total GDP).

19 Objectives Developing a multi stakeholder participatory approach in reducing vulnerability to climate change for local development To assess impacts of climate change on water related extreme events and consequently on aquaculture and agriculture in NHQ area To establish an Information System for scientific research, decision making process and local community needs in vulnerability reduction and To transfer the technology to local authorities and community To develop human resources for applied research in the field of climate change adaptation

20 Climate Induced: Change- Typhoon Drought Salinity Intrusion Heavy rainfall Flood/Inundation Water Disaster Agriculture Aquaculture Indigenous Knowledge Coastal Zone and low land

21 Conclusions: Conclusions & Future Challenges Human resources Equipment resources Data Models/Models outputs Future challenges: Improvement of the computing systems Project/research management International collaboration Link the model result to other fields: eg. Agriculture, etc