WORLD ENERGY CONSUMPTION

Transcription

1 SOILS AND LAND USE R. Lal Carbon Management and Sequestration Center The Ohio State University Columbus, OH Human Impact Population Energy use Water use Deforestation CO 2 Emissions Land Degradation Desertification 8000 BC Time GLOBAL ISSUES OF THE 21 ST CENTURY 1. Population of 6.9 billion in 2010 and increasing at 1.14%/yr (6 million/month). 1. Per capita arable land area of 0.22 ha and decreasing to <0.07 ha for 30 countries by Soil degradation of 3.5 Bha and increasing at 5-10 Mha/yr. 1. Renewable fresh water supply of < 1000m 3 for 30 countries and increasing to 58 countries (4 billion people) by Atmospheric CO 2 concentration of 390 ppm and increasing at 0.5%/yr. 1. Energy use of ~500 Quads (10 15 BTU/yr, and increasing by 40% between 2007 and Per capita grain consumption of 300 Kg/yr and decreasing. 1. Food insecure population of 1.02 billion and increasing. WORLD ENERGY CONSUMPTION Year EJ/y EJ 1 Quad (1015 BTU) GLOBAL OIL CONSUMPTION Global Demand for Oil = 88 million bbl/day (14.4 billion L/day, 2.10 L/capita/day) 1 bbl = 164 L MAXIMUM ALLOWABLE GLOBAL EMISSIONS The maximum permissible CO 2 concentration is 575 ppm for 2 C limit Thus, a tolerable increase is 575 ppm ppm = 187 ppm And the allowable fossil fuel emissions are 187 ppm x 4 Pg/ppm = 750 PgC HOW DOES ONE DIVIDE THE PIE?...Boeckert (2008), WBGU (2008) 1

2 GLOBAL CHANGES IN BIOMES FOOTPRINT OF AGRICULTURE % of Earth s ice-free land was wild lands % of Earth s ice-free land was wild lands Change (i) Land under agriculture and settlements increased from 5 % in 1700 to 39% in 2000 (ii) That under pasture increased from 3% to 26% Ellis et al. (2010) Agricultural production is set to increase by 70% between 2010 and Unless the footprint of agriculture is carefully managed through sustainable development, both agricultural and natural ecosystems will suffer further degradation. ESTIMATES OF GLOBAL LAND DEGRADATION (Bai et al., 2008) CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE GLOBAL Understanding the GCC is essential: PARAMETER STATISTICS Degraded Area (10 6 km 2 ) 35.1 % Territory 23.5 Total NPP Loss (10 6 C/yr) 41.5 Total Population Affected (10 9 ) 1.54 % of Total Population Affected 23.9 Short-Term : years (decadal scale) Long-Term : years (multimillion-year scale) SHORT VS. LONG-TERM POOLS IN DIFFERENT RESERVOIRS FOR THE LONG-TERM Short-Term : Exchange of C between atmosphere, biosphere, soil and the ocean. Long-Term : Geochemical cycles which affect C exchange between rocks and the surficial reservoirs. Reservoir C Pool (10 18 g) Carbonate in Rocks 60,000 Organic C in Rocks 15,000 Ocean (HCO 3-, CO -2 3 ) 42 Soils 4 Atmosphere 0.8 Biosphere 0.6 There is extremely little CO 2 in the atmosphere compared to that in the rocks. Thus, if inputs and outputs are not closely balanced, the atmosphere would become overwhelmed with CO 2. 2

3 PROCESSES OF LONG-TERM C THE LONG-TERM (10 18 G) Berner (2009) 1. Uptake of atmospheric CO 2 by weathering of Ca and Mg silicates. 1. Weathering of ancient organic matter on the continent and burial of new OM in marine sediments. (Fossil fuel combustion by humans is a special case of greatly accelerated OM weathering.) 1. The thermal breakdown at depth of carbonate minerals and OM via metamorphism, magmatism and diagenesis. Volcanism, Metamorphism, Diagenesis Burial Weathering ATES (60,000) OCEAN (42) SOILS (4) ATMOSPHERE (0.8) BIOTA (0.6) Weathering ROCK ORGANICS (15,000) Burial Volcanism, Metamorphism Diagenesis MIMICKING THE LONG-TERM (SHORTCUT HORTCUT) POOLS IN DIFFERENT RESERVOIRS FOR THE SHORT-TERM Will reactions which occur over hundreds of millions of years over the geologic time scale be effective over human time scales of decades? 1. Geologic sequestration EOR, CBM, Saline Aquifers 2. Oceanic sequestration 3. Carbonation Reservoir Pool (10 15 g) Ocean 42,000 Fossil Fuel 5,000 Soils (2-m) 4,000 Atmosphere 780 Biota 620 MRT = 5Yr BIOTA 620 Gt SOILS 2,500 Gt (i) SOC - 1,550 Gt (ii) SIC Gt MRT = 25Yr ATMOSPHERE 825 Gt +4.2 Gt/yr MRT = 6Yr THE SHORT-TERM TERM GLOBAL FOSSIL FUELS 4,130 Gt (i) Coal: 3,510 Gt (ii) Oil: 230 Gt (iii) Gas: 140 Gt (iv) Other: 250 Gt OCEAN 38,400 Gt Gt/yr (i) Surface layer: 670 Gt (ii) Deep layer: 36,730 Gt (iii) Total organic: 1,000 Gt Mean Residence Time (MRT) = 400Yr AND THE ECOSYSTEM SERVICES GENERATED COUPLED CYCLING OF H 2 O, C, N, P Sustainable use of soil & water resources 3

4 ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE It involves any activity that reduces the negative impacts of climate change through anticipatory or reactive strategies and/or take advantage of new and beneficial opportunities that may be presented GOALS OF ANTICIPATORY NTICIPATORY/R /REACTIVE STRATEGIES OF ADAPTATION To increase resilience of the cropping/farming systems to climate change such as variability in precipitation, alteration in temperature, and change in seasonality MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE It involves specific soil and land (vegetation) management activities to reduce the extent and severity of CC. Adaption to ACC by Minimizing the Adverse Effects & Reducing Vulnerability The goal of mitigation strategies to enhance C sink capacity of soil and vegetation, and reduce the net anthropogenic emissions. Mitigation of ACC by Enhancing Land-Based C C Sinks SEQUESTRATION SEQUESTRATION Innovative Technology II Capture and secure storage of atmospheric C that would otherwise be emitted or remain in the atmosphere. Relative Carbon Pool Subsistence farming, none or low off-farm input soil degradation New equilibrium Innovative Adoption of Technology I RMPs { Maximum NT Potential INM Rate Cover Crops Attainable Biochar Y Potential Agroforestry X Desertification Control Afforestation Accelerated erosion Reforestation Time (Yrs) (Lal, 2004) 4

5 SUPER -ABSORBINGABSORBING PLANT GMO (Mg/ha) Nano-enhanced Materials Plants which emit molecular-based signals N, P, K, Zn, H 2 O Delivering nutrients and water directly to a plant s roots. THE BARTER SYSTEM TRADING WATER FOR Mother Nature is the best at trading one commodity for another. Nothing comes from nothing: Ex Nihilo de Nihil Fit Parmenides There is no such thing as a free lunch Commomer Afforestation Decline in Water Yield A. Farley et al. (2005): 26 catchments, 504 observations (Runoff %) Grasslands 44 ± 3 Shrublands 31 ± 2 B. Jackson et al. (2005) Plantations observations (Stream flow, mm/yr) CO 2 FERTILIZATION AND NITROGEN SEQUESTRATION IN THE TERRESTRIAL BIOSPHERE (Lal al, 2010) Strategy Technical Potential (Gt C/yr) N limitation is likely to play a key role in meditating CO 2 fertilization effect Afforestation and agroforestry Forest plantations Grassland and grazed ecosystems Arable land Salt-affected soils Desertification control TOTAL (3.8) 5

6 SINK CAPACITY OF FOREST ECOSYSTEMS (Canadell and Raupach, Raupach, 2008; House et al., 2002; Hansen et al., 2008) Global land area of forest ecosystems = 4 Bha 1.5 Gt C/yr over the next 100 years Reducing atmospheric concentration of CO2 by ppm by Land area requirement = 231 Mha FOOD PRODUCTION IN LDCS BY INCREASING SOC POOL BY 1 T/ha/yr Crop 430 Production Increase (106 Mg yr-1) Legumes Tubers Cereals Total Area (Mha) ENERGIEKONZEPT ANNETTE SCHAVEN (SCIENCE 15 OCT 2010) End to German dependence on fossil fuel by 2050 including: Reduction of GHG emission by 80% compared to 1990 level Modernization and insulation of buildings, and Decrease in electricity consumption by 25% Soil and land use are not specifically mentioned as a strategy towards this goal - Quantity - Quality - Mitigation - Adaptation SOIL QUALITY & PROCESSES WATER RESOURCES - Quality - Quantity BASIC LAWS OF NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT FOOD SECURITY CLIMATE CHANGE ENERGY DEMAND - Use efficiency - Biofuels LAW #1 CAUSES OF SOIL DEGRADATION The biophysical process of soil degradation is driven by economic, social and political forces. Vulnerability to degradation depends on how rather than what is grown. 6

7 LAW #2 SOIL STEWARDSHIP AND HUMAN SUFFERING When people are poverty stricken, desperate and starving, they pass on their sufferings to the land. Natl. Geog. June 2009 BRICK MAKING USES 11-m OF TOPSOIL Law #3 NUTRIENT, AND WATER BANK It is not possible to take more out of a soil than what is put in it without degrading its quality. Only by replacing what is taken can a soil be kept fertile, productive, and responsive to inputs. And covers %/yr of cropland in Haryana. TRADITIONAL BIOFUEL FROM ANIMAL MANURE LAW #4 MARGINALITY PRINCIPLE Marginal soils cultivated with marginal inputs produce marginal yields and support marginal living. Recycling is a good strategy especially when there is something to recycle. 7

8 ECONOMICS OF RESIDUE REMOVAL FOR BIOFUEL Mosquito gains energy from toad Toad gains energy from the same mosquito AN IMPOSSIBLE C-MASC LAW #5 ORGANIC VERSUS INORGANIC SOURCE OF NUTRIENTS Plants cannot differentiate the nutrients supplied through inorganic fertilizers or organic amendments. DOOMING BOTH LAW #6 SOIL AND GREENHOUSE EFFECT Mining C has the same effect on global warming whether it is through mineralization of soil organic matter and extractive farming or burning fossil fuels or draining peat soils. Soil can be a source or sink of GHGs depending on land use and management. LAW #7 SOIL VERSUS GERMPLASM The potential of elite varieties can be realized only if grown under optimal soil conditions. Even the elite varieties cannot extract water and nutrients from any soil where they do not exist. Law #8 SOIL AS A SINK FOR ATMOSPHERIC CO2 Soil are integral to any strategy of mitigating global warming and improving the environment. 8

9 LAW #9 ENGINE OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT Sustainable management of soils is the engine of economic development, political stability and transformation of rural communities in developing countries. Law #10 TRADITIONAL KNOWLEDGE AND MODERN INNOVATIONS Sustainable management of soil implies the use of modern innovations built upon the traditional knowledge. Those who refuse to use modern science to address urgent global issues must be prepared to endure more suffering. GANDHI S 7 SINS OF HUMANITY 1. Wealth without work 2. Pleasure without conscience 3. Knowledge without character 4. Commerce without morality 5. Politics without principle 6. Religion without sacrifice 7. Science without humanity PRODUCTIVITY INCREASE BETWEEN 1900 AND 2000 Parameter (Ponting, 2007) Increase Factor Between Population 3.8 Urban Population 12.8 Industrial output 35 Energy Use 12.5 Oil Production 300 Water Use 9 Irrigated Area 6.8 Fertilizer Use 342 Fish Catch 65 Organic Chemicals 1000 Car Ownership 7750 SINS OF HUMANITY CONTINUED 8. Technology without wisdom 9. Education without relevance 10. Humanity without conscience 9