Aquaculture Labour Market Forecast to Funded by the Government of Canada s Sectoral Initiatives Program

Transcription

1 Aquaculture Labour Market Forecast to 2025 Funded by the Government of Canada s Sectoral Initiatives Program

2 Canada s agriculture sector faces unique labour market challenges in the coming years, and so will the aquaculture industry. This report explores some of the workplace trends and realities that will shape this industry between now and

3 Industry Overview The aquaculture * industry 1 is one of the smallest agricultural employers in Canada, but it s also the fastest growing. The rising global demand for fish protein is predicted to create a strong market for this export-reliant industry over the next 10 years. The main species grown by Canada s aquaculture industry are salmon, mussels, oysters, and trout. Steelhead, arctic char, Atlantic cod, sablefish, geoducks, Atlantic halibut, quahogs, white sturgeon, tilapia, and scallops are also produced. The aquaculture industry is one of the smallest employers in the agriculture sector. In 2014, the industry employed 4,000 people (including selfemployed, paid labour, and foreign workers), which is equivalent to just 1% of total agricultural employment. Although it s small, aquaculture has the most positive growth outlook of any industry in the agriculture sector, with output expected to increase by an average of 4% per year. Aquaculture industry at a glance In 2014: Fastest-growing agriculture industry 4,000 people employed 450 jobs left unfilled $57 million in lost sales due to labour shortages In 2025: Growing global market for product Growing labour shortages 1,300 jobs predicted to go unfilled Rural depopulation is a significant issue Labour shortages continue to impact sales of the Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP). As a result, the industry is serviced almost entirely by domestic workers; foreign workers account for only 0.1% of the workforce. By comparison, the number of foreign workers employed across the entire agriculture sector accounts for 12% of the workforce. Canada s aquaculture industry is geographically concentrated, with British Columbia and Atlantic Canada accounting for two-thirds of the industry s employment. The aquaculture industry has limited access to foreign workers because it is not on the National Commodities List, which grants employers access to foreign workers through the Seasonal Agricultural Worker Program (SAWP) and the Agricultural Stream * The Labour Market Information data classifies Canada s agriculture sector into 11 commodity areas: 1) apiculture ; 2) aquaculture ; 3) beef ; 4) dairy ; 5) field fruit and vegetable ; 6) grain and oilseed ; 7) greenhouse, nursery, and floriculture ; 8) poultry and egg ; 9) sheep and goat ; 10) swine ; and 11) tree fruit and vine. 1 This report defines the aquaculture industry according to Statistics Canada s NAICS code 1125, which only covers employers involved in primary production; those involved in seafood processing activities (NAICS code 3117) are not included. As a result, the estimated size of the workforce in this report is smaller than some industry estimates. For example, the Canadian Aquaculture Industry Alliance estimates that the industry directly employs 8,000 people, while Statistics Canada estimates that the industry employs 4,000 people. 3

4 Production Trends As productivity gains slow over the next decade, the aquaculture industry will need more workers to meet the high market demand for products. Since peaking in 2008, the number of aquacultural farms has dropped by 20%. However, due to consolidations, the remaining operations have increased in size and capacity, and aquaculture has become one of the most efficient agricultural industries. As a result, industry output rose by 20% between 2008 and 2014, while the demand for labour shrank by 0.6% per year. However, productivity gains are expected to slow considerably over the next 10 years, which will create a heavier reliance on labour to meet production targets. Aquaculture relies on exports for a significant share of its sales, and a growing global need for fish protein will create the need for higher industry output. The growing demand for aquacultural products will support the strongest production outlook in agriculture: industry output is expected to grow by an average of 4.2% per year between 2014 and Meeting this growing market demand will boost the demand for labour; the number of workers needed to meet production targets is forecasted to increase from 4,000 in 2014 to 5,800 by Labour Demand, Productivity, and Output Trends (average annual growth) 3.4% 4.2% % 2.6% 1.6% -0.6% Productivity Output Labour Demand 4

5 Labour Forecast The predicted growth in global demand for aquacultural products will drive a need for additional workers to boost output and meet the market demand. However, the number of people available to work in this industry is not predicted to keep pace with the need for workers. Aquaculture has the second-highest percentage of operators with a need for more workers than they can find. Only apiculture, at 63%, has a higher percentage of operators with unmet labour needs. In 2014, the industry was unable to fill 450 jobs. More than half of all aquacultural operators (58%) said they were unable to find all the workers they needed, compared to 41% of all agricultural producers. Aquaculture s labour issues are predicted to worsen over the next decade. The demand for workers within the aquaculture industry is expected to rise by an average of 2.6% per year from now until The supply of domestic labour, however, is predicted to stay flat over the same time period. The rising demand combined with a flat supply will widen the gap considerably, leaving a much higher number of jobs vacant. By 2025, the number of jobs that go unfilled will increase to 1,300, a number equivalent to 23% of the total industry demand for workers : The Labour Gap Widens for the Aquaculture Industry 7,000 6,000 Labour Demand Domestic Workers 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,

6 Regional Trends While labour challenges will affect the aquaculture industry throughout Canada, British Columbia will be hardest hit. Canada s aquaculture industry is geographically concentrated, with British Columbia and Atlantic Canada accounting for two-thirds of industry employment. Because most aquacultural operations are located in rural areas, the declining rural population is a top labour concern for this industry. Over the next 10 years, the labour gap in Canada s aquaculture industry is forecast to rise, increasing from a gap of 450 to 1,300 unfilled jobs. British Columbia s labour force is expected to experience nearly one-quarter of the total national labour gap (23%) by 2025, while New Brunswick will be less heavily impacted, with 12% of the total gap. Demographic Trends A relatively young workforce means that retirements will have a minor impact on the aquaculture industry. While aquaculture faces big challenges in finding enough workers over the next decade, a youngerthan-average domestic workforce means that this industry can expect to lose comparatively fewer workers to retirement. The labour supply for all of agriculture is expected to shrink by 1% per year between 2014 and 2025, with retirement being one of the factors affecting the supply of labour. The agriculture sector as a whole will see 27% of its workforce retire over the forecast period, with the most affected industries, such as the sheep and goat and the grain and oilseed industries, expecting to see 33% and 32% of their workforce retiring, respectively. By comparison, only 17% of the aquacultural workforce will retire during this time, which is the lowest retirement rate of any agriculture industry. 6

7 Financial Impact Higher-than-average labour shortages cost the industry $57 million in In that year, the aquaculture industry had 450 unfilled vacancies, which is equivalent to 10% of the total workforce needed to meet production targets. This percentage is higher than the average of 7% across the agriculture sector. The inability to find enough workers impacts the industry in a number of ways. Survey respondents for aquaculture were more negatively affected by production delays and lost sales than the agriculture sector as a whole, with 29% of operators reporting that they delayed production and 21% reporting that they lost sales due to a lack of available workers. The financial cost of labour shortages in this industry was equivalent to 6% of sales a figure well above the average of 2.7% of sales for all agricultural producers. Top Labour Shortage Issues for Aquacultural Operators All Agriculture Production delays Lost sales Delayed expansion Overtime costs Production losses 21.6% 28.6% 17.8% 21.4% 15.5% 14.3% 16.5% 14.3% 21.3% 14.3% Aquaculture* *Based on responses from 7 aquacultural operators 7

8 Labour Challenges Challenges in Finding Workers The rural locations of most aquacultural operations are a key challenge in attracting and retaining workers for this industry. All Agriculture Aquaculture* While many industries in the agriculture sector experience challenges in finding and retaining workers, the aquaculture industry faces several unique challenges, with rural locations and worker mobility topping the list. However, the industry also benefits from several advantages, including low rates of turnover and less variability in working hours, that make the industry more attractive to workers. Finding Workers Aquacultural operators were much more likely to identify their location in rural areas as a problem, with survey respondents being more than twice as likely as other agricultural employers to cite rural depopulation as an issue that affects their ability to attract enough workers. However, the effects of negative perceptions of the industry and a lack of applicants with sufficient skills and experience were both reported as less of an issue for aquaculture than they are for other agricultural industries. aquaculture also has the lowest turnover rates of any agriculture industry, suggesting that when the Insufficient skills/ experience Rural location Negative perceptions Other 37.0% 25.0% 31.0% 50.0% 12.0% 8.0% 20.0% 17.0% *Based on responses from 12 aquacultural operators industry does hire workers, it tends to hire the right people. The voluntary turnover rate is less than a quarter of the agricultural average (4% compared to 18%), and the involuntary turnover rate of 2% is significantly below the agricultural average of 7%. In fact, these are the lowest turnover rates in agriculture. 8

9 Retaining Workers When it comes to issues related to retaining workers, the aquaculture industry is considerably different from other agricultural operations. For example, aquacultural operators were far less likely to report that variability in hours is a problem for worker retention. At the opposite end of the spectrum, aquacultural operators were much more likely to cite worker mobility as a problem for worker retention. This includes the limited ability of workers to get transportation to worksites and the need for workers to move from their original location to one that is closer to work. Toughest Jobs to Fill The forecast for 2025 indicates that other management jobs, such as operations and marketing managers, will be the hardest to fill, with 45% of the labour gap consisting of these jobs. The second largest gap, at 27%, will occur in aquaculture and marine harvesting labourer jobs. Managers in aquaculture will be the third largest gap at 21%. Together, these occupations will account for the majority of the jobs this industry will be challenged to fill over the next 10 years. Challenges in Retaining Workers All Agriculture Aquaculture* Variability in hours Insufficient compensation Work is too physical Worker mobility Other 36.0% 15.0% 18.0% 15.0% 17.0% 15.0% 7.0% 24.0% 25.0% 31.0% *Based on a survey of 11 aquacultural operators 9

10 Conclusion A growing market demand for Canada s aquaculture products, a growing need for workers, and a flat labour supply is predicted to impact the industry significantly over the next decade. While the aquaculture industry benefits from less seasonality and variability in hours on operations, a younger-than-average workforce, and fewer negative perceptions about the industry compared to other agricultural commodities, it still faces significant labour challenges. In the past, productivity gains have helped to offset the impact of labour challenges, but the growing need for animal protein in global emerging markets will place additional pressure on the aquaculture industry s labour force. Combined with a flat labour supply, this is projected to significantly increase the number of jobs that go unfilled. This number is expected to reach 1,300 by 2025, which is equivalent to 23% of the total demand for workers. To reverse this trend, the industry must overcome a number of unique labour challenges: ÎÎAquaculture s remote operations and the trend toward rural depopulation make it harder to find and retain workers. ÎÎAquacultural operators do not have access to foreign labour through SAWP or the Agricultural Stream of the TFWP. ÎÎAquacultural operators are more likely to suffer lost sales as a result of labour shortages, so the impact on their bottom line is likely to be greater. Overcoming these labour challenges will be critical if the aquaculture industry is to continue to grow in the years to come. 10

11 About This Report This report features data collected during a three-year research project to examine Canada s labour market situation for primary-production agricultural businesses. The project was led by the Canadian Agricultural Human Resources Council (CAHRC) and was launched in response to the unique workforce challenges faced by the agriculture sector. The purpose was to assess the current labour market, project supply and demand for agricultural workers from 2015 until 2025, and recommend potential solutions to labour issues. The Conference Board of Canada, commissioned by CAHRC, constructed an economic model that forecasts agricultural labour demand and supply for each province, for 11 different commodity groups, and for 25 occupational groups. The economic model was validated through a number of industry consultation activities conducted Canadawide, including: A large-scale survey of 813 employers, 132 workers, and 89 industry stakeholders Phone interviews with 80 industry stakeholders Six focus groups with 100 participants in total, including employers, workers, and other stakeholders Seven webinars focused on specific commodity groups, with 100 participants in total This data was used to produce the following reports: Commodity-specific reports and fact sheets Apiculture n Aquaculture n Beef n Dairy n Field Fruit and Vegetable n Grain and Oilseed n Greenhouse, Nursery, and Floriculture n Poultry and Egg n Sheep and Goat n Swine n Tree Fruit and Vine Regional reports and fact sheets National n British Columbia n Alberta n Saskatchewan n Manitoba n Ontario n Quebec n New Brunswick n Prince Edward Island n Nova Scotia n Newfoundland and Labrador For more information on the research, and to access additional commodity-specific, national, and provincial reports, please visit the CAHRC website at About CAHRC The Canadian Agricultural Human Resources Council (CAHRC) is a national, nonprofit organization focused on addressing human resource issues faced by agricultural businesses across Canada. CAHRC conducts industry research and develops products and services designed to help agricultural employers attract, retain, and develop the workforce they need to succeed. For more information about the Council and its products and services for Canada s agriculture sector, please visit 11

12 Acknowledgements: The Canadian Agricultural Human Resource Council (CAHRC) acknowledges the support and guidance of volunteers, the Advisory Group, the Provincial LMI Panel, and the Strategic Steering Committee. LMI Advisory Group Chair: Newfoundland and Labrador Federation of Agriculture, Merv Wiseman AGRIcarrières: Robert Ouellet Agricultural Alliance of New Brunswick: Marc Ouellet Alberta Agriculture and Forestry: Alan Dooley British Columbia Agricultural Council: David Geen and Ken Denbok Canadian Association of Diploma in Agriculture Programs: Peter Enright Canadian Aquaculture Industry Alliance: Marilyn Hutchinson Canadian Herb Spice and Natural Health Products Coalition: Connie Kehler Canadian Federation of Agriculture: Jack Greydanus Canadian Young Farmers Forum: Pierre-Luc Lacoste Farm Credit Canada: Jean-Philippe (JP) Gervais Farm Management Canada: Heather (Ferrier) Oakley and Heather Watson Flowers Canada Growers: Ken Linington Canadian Nursery and Landscape Association: Sally Harvey Manitoba Agriculture: Stephanie Cruickshanks Nova Scotia Federation of Agriculture: Lloyd Dyck Ontario Federation of Agriculture: Peter Sykanda Ontario Ministry of Agriculture and Food and Rural Affairs: Barb Alves; Gail Gimpelj; Michael Weber; Rob Gamble and Nathan Stevens Prince Edward Island Agriculture Sector Council: Basil Attwood Saskatchewan Agriculture: Bob Wiens Sunterra Farms: Mark Chambers Provincial LMI Panel Chair: Newfoundland and Labrador Federation of Agriculture, Merv Wiseman British Columbia: B.C. Agriculture, Heather Anderson, B.C. Jobs, Tourism and Skills Training, Yu Li Alberta: Alberta Agriculture and Forestry, Gerard Bos Saskatchewan: Saskatchewan Agriculture, Bob Wiens, Ministry of the Economy, Leah Goodwin Manitoba: Manitoba Agriculture, Food and Rural Development, Stephanie Cruickshanks, Manitoba Jobs and the Economy, Mona Pandey, Stacy Quinn and Matthias Rust Ontario: Ontario Ministry of Agriculture and Food & Rural Affairs, Barb Alves, Gail Gimpelj, Michael Weber, Rob Gamble and Nathan Stevens Nova Scotia: Nova Scotia Agriculture, Bettina Brown Quebec: AGRIcarrières, Robert Ouellet New Brunswick: New Brunswick Post-Secondary Education, Training and Labour, Meghann Douglas Prince Edward Island: Prince Edward Island Department of Agriculture and Forestry: Colleen Younie and Chris Jordan Newfoundland and Labrador: Advanced Education, Skills and Labour, Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, Derrick Barrett Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada: Li Xue The use of any part of this publication, whether it is reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means (including electronic, mechanical, photographic, photocopying or recording), without the prior written permission of CAHRC is an infringement of copyright law. Canadian Agricultural Human Resource Council Published May 2016 T: E: info@cahrc-ccrha.ca This document may be downloaded from All rights reserved CAHRC Photo credits: Aboriginal Aquaculture Association, Canadian Aquaculture Industry Association, Cyr Couturier