March 2012 Marcel Bruins, Secretary-General ISF

Transcription

1 March 2012 Marcel Bruins, Secretary-General ISF

2 FIS Assinsel (international seed traders association) Established 1924 (international plant breeders association) Established 1938 Established Secretariat: Nyon, Switzerland (6,5 fte) For more information:

3 ISF : membership Ordinary members National Associations representing seed companies and enterprises within their countries 54 members from 41 countries Associate members Seed companies or enterprises 98 members from 42 countries Affiliate members Service providers to the seed industry 26 members from 11 countries Tree and Shrub Seed Group National Seed Associations of tree and shrub seed companies and / or individual companies active in this field 41 members from 25 countries Observers 9 Associations (Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Gambia, Pakistan, Paraguay, Russia, Sudan, Ukraine and Venezuela)

4 2011: WW Seed market: 43 billion USD Farm Saved Seed: 15 billion USD Internationally Traded: 8.3 billion USD 228 members from 78 countries ISF members cover 96% of international seed trade

5 Regions No. of ISF members Africa 13 Asia-Pacific 12 Eastern Europe 13 Middle East 10 North America 3 South America 9 W. Europe 18 5

6 Country Field Crops (MT) Field Crops Value Vegetable Crops (MT) Vegetable Crops Value MT = Metric Tons // Value = Mio USD Conversion 1 = 1.32$ // * 70+ countries with >1mioUSD Flower Seed (MT) Flower Seed Value Total Value Netherlands USA France Germany Chile n.a Hungary Italy Denmark Canada Mexico n.a Belgium Austria Argentina n.a China Brazil n.a Japan Total *

7 Country Field Crops (MT) Field Crops Value Vegetable Crops (MT) Vegetable Crops Value Flower Seed (MT) MT = Metric Tons // Value = Mio USD Conversion 1 = 1.32$ // * 70+ countries with >1mioUSD Flower Seed Value Total Value Netherlands USA France Germany Chile n.a Hungary Italy Denmark Canada Mexico n.a South Africa Kenya Egypt Morocco Tanzania n.a Ghana Total *

8 Country Field Crops (MT) Field Crops Value Vegetable Crops (MT) MT = Metric Tons // Value = Mio USD Conversion 1 = 1.32$ // * 100+ countries with >1mio USD Vegetable Crops Value Flower Seed (MT) Flower Seed Value Total Value USA France Netherlands Germany Italy Mexico n.a UK Spain Russia Ukraine n.a Canada China Japan Belgium Turkey Romania Total*

9 Country Field Crops (MT) Field Crops Value Vegetable Crops (MT) Vegetable Crops Value Flower Seed (MT) MT = Metric Tons // Value = Mio USD Conversion 1 = 1.32$ // * 100+ countries with >1mio USD Flower Seed Value Total Value USA France Netherlands South Africa Morocco Egypt Algeria Kenya Senegal n.a Burkina Faso Ethiopia Libya n.a Angola Sudan Cameroon Tanzania Total*

10 Country Value (mio USD) Netherlands USA France Germany Chile Hungary Italy Denmark Canada Mexico Belgium Austria Argentina China Brazil Japan Total (70+ countries with >1mio USD)

11 Growing international seed trade Source: International Seed Federation (ISF) Cheap & fast transportation Development of hybrid varieties Higher speed of breeding & commercial processes => counter season breeding and production

12 * 100+ countries. The commercial world seed market is assessed at approximately US$ 43 billion Total Total Total USA 12,000 UK 400 Finland 160 China 9,500 Turkey 400 Austria 150 France 2,400 South Africa 370 Switzerland 144 Brazil 2,000 Mexico 350 Egypt 140 India 2,000 The Netherlands 317 Morocco 140 Japan 1,400 Czech Republic 300 Bulgaria 120 Germany 1,261 Hungary 300 Chile 120 Italy 780 Taiwan 300 Nigeria 120 Argentina 600 Poland 260 Serbia 120 Canada 550 Greece 240 Slovakia 110 Russian Federation 500 Sweden 240 New Zealand 100 Spain 450 Romania 220 Uruguay 96 Australia 400 Belgium 185 Paraguay 80 Korea 400 Denmark 185 Total 40650*

13 2015 Africa food demand reaches 100 bio $ (= 2 x level of 2000) [IFPRI] Biotech: 20 mio farmers plant 200 mio ha in 40 countries [ISAAA] 2020: Population growth 80 mio/yr=>7.7 bio 17% more water needed to feed the world [WWC] World Agr. GDP projected to decrease by 16% due to global warming [IFPRI] 13

14 2025 2/3 of all people in drought or water stressed conditions [UNEP] 1 ha needs to feed 5 people (in 1960: 2 people) [WB] 2030: Energy demand 55% (74% in dev ing countries) [IEA] 1.7 bio new mouths to feed [IChemE] Calorie demand is set to rise by 10% [FAO] 14

15 By 2050: 50% of current arable land will become unusable (desertification/land degradation) [UNCCD] Population at 9 bio [UN] Global food demand 2,5X [BIAC] Agr. Production needs to increase 2-3 times [FAO] Photo courtesy: WFP (Q. Sakamaki) 15

16 925 mio people currently do not have enough to eat [FAO, Sept. 2010] Every 3.5 seconds a person dies of hunger or malnutrition [WFP] => / day Around 65% of the world s hungry live in only seven countries: India, China, The Democratic Republic of Congo, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Pakistan and Ethiopia [FAO] More than 70 percent of the world s underweight children (aged five or less) live in just 10 countries (>50% in South Asia) [UNICEF] 16

17 abcd 17

18 Comparison ISTA OECD Sd Sch Hunger UPOV ISF 18

19 Comparison Africa ISTA OECD Sd Sch Hunger UPOV ISF 19

20 Country ISTA OECD SS UPOV ISF Hunger Index Tunisia 1 lab 2 Yes Yes <5 Egypt 1 lab 2 No Yes <5 Mauritius * No No No No 5.4 Morocco No 2 Yes Yes 5.9 South Africa 1 lab 2 Yes Yes 6.4 Ghana 1 lab No No No 8.7 Senegal No No No No 13.6 Kenya 2 labs 2 Yes Yes 18.6 Mali No No No No 19.7 Tanzania 2 labs No No Yes 20.5 Angola No No No No 24.2 Ethiopia No No No No 28.7 Chad No No No No 30.6 Burundi No No No No 37.9 DR Congo No No No No 39 * 90% of arable land is sugar cane 20

21 World Seed Project Creating the regulatory framework => facilitate the development of new plant varieties & delivery of high quality seed to farmers to enhance crop productivity in a changing world ISF part to focus on creation & strengthening of a National Seed Association 21

22 Shaping Trends Traits Biofuels Food quality issues Globalization Shift in end user 22

23 Trends - General Changes in the seed industry faster than ever Technology is booming The world is shrinking Products move more quickly from production to obsolescence => impact on profit margins 23

24 Trends - Seed Trade International seed trade Seed treatment Farmers better informed of all varieties: switch more quickly Variety life time shorter More crops converted to hybrids 24

25 Seed has become focal decision Past: Input decisions distinct & separate Today: Farmers want integrated solution & seeds is most important decision Seed Treatment Crop Protection Seed Treatment Crop Protection Seed Seed Services Fertilizer Services Fertilizer Rather than selling input components, successful retailers are leading with seed and helping farmers maximize profitability on every ha. 25

26 Trends - Farm size Farm size is increasing Larger farms are able to leverage annual profitability Larger farms also increase level of sophistication in business structure Large operations make decision more collaboratively with the objective to achieve the highest possible return on their investments 26

27 Trends - Plant Breeding More and more plant breeding & seed production by private sector Increased focus on abiotic tolerance (drought, salt, flood, heat, cold etc) Access to germplasm and technologies continue to be a challenge Increase in admin./regulatory burden (IT & CBD) 27

28 Trends - Vegetable Seed Industry Consumer tastes and preferences extr. difficult to predict Growing realization that what we eat matters and has consequences => Growing trends: Things seen to be healthy / healthier Local is good Freshness All things green 28

29 Trends Lack of workforce No. of Masters & PhD s declining in: Plant breeding Plant physiology Agronomy Genetics Seed technology etc Companies need to play more active role in education and training process Pair up students with seed industry mentors 29

30 Trends - Biotechology No. of biotech varieties No. of traits (next generation) Multistacks ( & phase out single trait varieties) Multistacks add complexity => increase conversation & planning No. of countries with biotech Cases of LLP Regulatory burden Variability in Regulations = trade barrier / ISF on barricades Non transgenic modification (muta- & cisgenesis) 30

31 31

32 Biotechology future prospects 2013: first biotech based drought tolerant maize planned for release in N. America 2013/2014: Golden Rice in Philippines 2015: ~10 more countries growing biotech crops (29=>40 countries / 17 mio farmers => 20 mio farmers / 160 mio ha =>200 mio Ha)) 2017: biotech drought tol. maize in Africa Biotech maize in China (30 mio ha.) Bt rice 32

33 Biotechology Africa Commercial biotech varieties in South Africa, Burkina Faso & Egypt. Kenya performance trials for Bt cotton planned for 2012: possibly 4th Afr. country? Passed biosafety bill: Nigeria, Uganda and Ghana Trials: Nigeria, Uganda & Malawi 33

34 Implications for the seed industry Seed companies need to anticipate; welcome change, be adaptable Advanced technology & globalization: companies must be willing to work together 34

35

36 More information: 36