CRS CROP BULLETIN CROPS SITUATION SEPTEMBER,2014 SUMMARY

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2 CRS CROP BULLETIN CROPS SITUATION SEPTEMBER,2014 SUMMARY In the month of September, 2014 hundreds of villages have been badly affected, several marooned, by exceptionally heavy rains and high flash floods in the rivers of Chinab, Ravi and Jehlum. The Crop Reporting Service conducted the crop damage survey just after the receding the flood water. The given map depicted the crop damage intensity in the affected district of the Punjab. The expected damages of crops rice 321 thousand acres cotton 212 thousand acres and sugarcane 49 thousand acres have been assessed preliminary. Crop Reporting Service Cotton arrival in the Punjab is increased by % and in Pakistan shows an increase of 12.21% on 1 st Oct. The cotton market prices have generally remained low ( Rs per 40 kg). The NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index ) of Kharif crops and by ground inspection of Crop Reporters of Crop Reporting Service, shows that the crop profile has down ward trend after touching peak value. Kharif season is attaining maturity/harvesting stage. 1

3 KHARIF CROPS SITUATION Growth of the cotton crop has been reported normal and satisfactory. The picking of crop remained in progress during the month. The attacks of White Fly, Jasid, Mealy bug and Thrips are reported/observed at pockets which are being controlled by spraying of recommended pesticides. It is reported that the flood has caused damage of cotton crop about 3.6% in flooded area of the districts. However, the average yield and production is expected to higher as compared to last year. The stand and growth of rice crop is satisfactory in non-flooded area of the districts. The harvesting of coarse and IRRI varieties is in progress. It is reported that the flood has caused damage of rice crop about 6.5% in flooded area of the districts. The production of rice is expected to decrease due to excessive rain/flood. The average yield may also be affected due to bacterial blight, brown leaf spot and blast in rice tract. The stand and growth of sugarcane crop has been reported overall satisfactory. The light attack of Pyralla is reported at places. The farmers are taking remedy measures to control pest/insect attack. The average yield is expected better as compared to last year due to favorable weather conditions. The stand and growth of the Maize (Autumn) crop is reported satisfactory. The early hybrid crop is at cob formation stage. The area has decreased as compare to last year due to increase in the area of rice/cotton. The growth and condition of the Moong crop remained satisfactory during the fortnight. Harvesting of early crop is going to be completed in the Sargodha Division. Better yield is being obtained due to favorable climatic condition during the year. The main growing districts of Moong are Bhakhar, Mianwali, and Layyah. The general condition of Mash crop is reported satisfactory but area under this crop has been affected by the flood in the districts of Narowal and Sialkot. The main growing districts are Narowal, Sialkot and Rawalpindi. 2

4 TEMPORAL VEGETATION CHANGES Gujranwala Division (Upto Sep 13, 2014) (GLAM) Gujranwala Division (Upto Sep 29, 2014) 3

5 TEMPORAL VEGETATION CHANGES Lahore Division (Upto Sep 13, 2014) (GLAM) Lahore Division (Upto Sep 29, 2014) 4

6 TEMPORAL VEGETATION CHANGES Faisalabad Division (Upto Sep 13, 2014) (GLAM) Faisalabad Division (Upto Sep 29, 2014) 5

7 TEMPORAL VEGETATION CHANGES Multan Division (Upto Sep 13, 2014) (GLAM) Multan Division (Upto Sep 29, 2014) 6

8 KHARIF CROPS SITUATION IMPACT OF FLOOD ON CROPS AND EXPECTED PRODUCTION Sugarcane Estimate Flood/Rains Expected Damage Re-assess Final Achieved %age Inc/Dec over last year Hectares Area in '000' Acres Production in '000' Tonnes Area: About 49 thousand Acres under sugarcane crop is expected to be damaged by heavy rains/floods during the month of September Considering damage area sugarcane crop is reassessed at ( thousand hectares) 1671 thousand acres as against 1870 thousand acres planted last year. Sugarcane acreage thus shows a decrease of % over the previous year. Production The expected production of sugarcane crop for the year is now assessed thousand tonnes which shows a decrease of 10.09% due to flood and excessive rains. Rice Estimate %age Re-assess Final Achieved Flood/Rains Expected Damage Inc/Dec over last year Area in '000' Hectares Acres Production in '000' Tonnes Area: About 321 thousand Acres under rice crop is expected to be damaged by heavy rains/floods during the month of September Considering damage area rice crop is reassessed at ( thousand hectares) 4422 thousand acres as against 4470 thousand acres planted last year. Rice acreage thus shows a decrease of 1.07% over the previous year. Production The expected production of rice crop for the year shows a decrease of 0.43% due to flood and excessive rain, Average yield may also affect to some extent due to bacterial blight, brown leaf spot and blast in rice tract. 7

9 KHARIF CROPS SITUATION Maize Estimate %age Flood/Rains Inc/Dec Final Expected Re-assess over last Achieved Damage year Area in '000' (Aut + Spr) Hectares Acres Production in '000' (Aut + Spr) Tonnes Area About 13 thousand Acres under maize crop is expected to be damaged by heavy rains/floods during the month of September Considering damage area maize crop is reassessed at ( thousand hectares) thousand acres as against thousand acres planted last year. Maize acreage thus shows a decrease of % over the previous year. Production The expected production of maize crop for the year is now assessed thousand tonnes which shows a decrease of 9.66% due to flood and excessive rain Cotton Estimate %age Flood/Rains Expected Damage Re-assess Final Achieved Inc/Dec over last year Area in '000' Hectares Acres Production in '000' Bales Area About 212 thousand Acres under cotton crop is expected to be damaged by heavy rains/floods during the month of September Considering damage area cotton crop is reassessed at ( thousand hectares) 5601 thousand acres as against 5434 thousand acres planted last year. Cotton acreage thus shows an increase of 3.07% over the previous year. Production The expected production of cotton crop for the year is now assessed thousand bales which shows an increase of 4.30%. 8

10 KHARIF CROPS SITUATION Moong Estimate %age Flood/Rains Expected Damage Re-assess Final Achieved Inc/Dec over last year Hectares Area in '000' -2.5 Acres Production in '000' Tonnes Area Considering damage area moong crop is reassessed at ( thousand hectares) thousand acres as against thousand acres planted last year. Moong acreage thus shows a decrease of 2.5% over the previous year. Production The expected production of moong crop for the year is now assessed thousand tonnes which shows a decrease of 2.06% due to flood and excessive rains. Mash Estimate %age Flood/Rains Inc/Dec Final Expected Re-assess over last Achieved Damage year Hectares Area in '000' 0.3 Acres Production in '000' Tonnes Area Considering damage area mash crop is reassessed at (16.19 thousand hectares) thousand acres as against thousand acres sown last year. Mash acreage thus shows an increase of 0.3% over the previous year. Production The expected production of mash crop for the year is now assessed 4.63 thousand tonnes which shows a decrease of 22.05% due to flood and excessive rains. 9

11 KHARIF CROPS SITUATION Source: CRS Source Source: CRS Source: Agriculture Marketing 10

12 KHARIF CROPS SITUATION PLANT MAPPING OF COTTON CROP Plant mapping survey for cotton crop is being conducted in sample mouzas on every fortnightly from for charting of plant sketch through scientific observations measuring age of cotton plant, plant height, number of plants,fertilizer used, number of irrigations applied, number of fruiting branches and the number of fruiting positions on all fruiting branches etc. The sixth observation recoded on 30th of September,2014 shows that share of early sown is decreasing as compared to last year, plants per acre are % more than last year, plants height is 6.96 % more than last year, bolls per plant are decreased by 5.67 %, average irrigations increased by 7.75 %. 11

13 Fertilizer Source: NDFC, AE&AR Irrigation Water Supply Situation Timely availability of water greatly influences the crop production and yields. In order to meet the agricultural needs, adequate and timely availability of water is an essential prerequisite. The average uses of Water in Kharif season in the Punjab is about MAF and Punjab share based on forecast of water availability is The canal water supply in kharif season (April - September) is MAF as compared to last year MAF shows an increase of %. Water inflow, outflow and level of Tarbela and Mangla dams are shown below. Source: Pb Irrigation Dpt. 12

14 Agro-Met Conditions: September, 2014 Agro-climatic normals for major Kharif crops Source: CRS 13

15 Agro-Met Conditions: September, 2014 Source: CRS 14

16 Agro-Met Conditions: September, Inch=76.2mm Rainfall = 1 Irrigation Source: CRS 15

17 WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER, st Decade of September, 2014 Light to moderate rainfall reported in the agricultural plains of Punjab. Chief amount of rainfall received in Islamabad, Joharabad & T.T Singh. Decadal minimum dropped below normal by 0.9 C & maximum temperature raised above normal by 1.5 C, in the province. Whereas mean values of sunshine hour, wind speed, relative humidity & ETo were recorded as 94.4hrs, 3.9km/hr, 57% and 5.5mm/day respectively. 2nd Decade of September, 2014 Heavy rainfall reported in the agricultural plains of Punjab. Chief amount of rainfall received in Lahore, Sialkot & Islamabad. Decadal minimum & maximum temperature both dropped below normal by 0.8 C & 2.9 C respectively, in the province. Whereas mean values of sunshine hour, wind speed, relative humidity & ETo were recorded as 55.3hrs, 3.8km/hr, 75% and 3.8mm/day respectively. 3rd Decade of September, 2014 Light to moderate rainfall reported in the agricultural plains of Punjab. Chief amount of rainfall received in Islamabad, Sargodha & Lahore. Decadal maximum & minimum temperature both raised above normal by 0.2 C & 0.3 C respectively, in the province. Whereas mean values of relative humidity, sunshine hour, wind speed & ETo were recorded as 64%, 80.4hrs, 3.4km/hr and 4.9mm/day respectively. Source:PMD 16

18 WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER,

19 NORMALLY EXPECTED WEATHER DURING OCTOBER, 2014 A statistical downscaling technique has been applied to prepare the precipitation forecast for the month of October It has been observed that normal to above normal rainfall is likely to occur in most parts of the country. Extreme northern tips including Gilgit-Baltistan and northern parts of Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa are likely to receive below normal rainfall. Azad Kashmir, Southern parts of Punjab alongwith adjoining areas of Baluchistan and coastal regions of Sindh and Baluchistan province are expected to be normal rainfall during October 2014.The maximum positive departure in rainfall is observed in the core monsoon region. Source:PMD 18

20 FILED ACTIVITIES (COTTON & RICE) 19