Research Article Demand for Meat in the Rural and Urban Areas of Kenya: A Focus on the Indigenous Chicken

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1 Economcs Research Internatonal Volume 2012, Artcle ID , 10 pages do: /2012/ Research Artcle Demand for Meat n the Rural and Urban Areas of Kenya: A Focus on the Indgenous Chcken H. K. Bett, 1, 2 M. P. Musyoka, 3 K. J. Peters, 1 and W. Bokelmann 4 1 Department of Crops and Anmal Scences, Humboldt Unversty of Berln, Phlppstraße 13, Haus 9, Berln, Germany 2 Department of Agrcultural Economcs and Agrbusness Management, Egerton Unversty, P.O. Box 536, Egerton 20115, Kenya 3 Department of Regonal and Project Plannng, Unversty of Gessen, Senckenbergstraße 3, Gessen, Germany 4 Department of Agrcultural Economcs, Humboldt Unversty of Berln, Phlppstraße 13, Haus 12, Berln, Germany Correspondence should be addressed to H. K. Bett, hk bett@yahoo.com Receved 29 March 2012; Revsed 26 June 2012; Accepted 30 June 2012 Academc Edtor: Almas Heshmat Copyrght 2012 H. K. Bett et al. Ths s an open access artcle dstrbuted under the Creatve Commons Attrbuton Lcense, whch permts unrestrcted use, dstrbuton, and reproducton n any medum, provded the orgnal work s properly cted. Ths study ntends to estmate the demand for ndgenous chcken meat n Kenya, ncludng other avalable meat products for comparson purposes. Data used was collected from sx countes. A total 930 rural and urban households were sampled. Lnear Approxmated Almost Ideal Demand System (LA/AIDS) model was used to obtan the demand elastctes and to examne the socoeconomc and demographc factors nfluencng the meat budget shares. The results ascertan that the soco-demographc factors such as household locaton, the proporton of household members and the famly sze are mportant factors n explanng perceved varatons n the consumpton of meat products. Indgenous chcken meat, beef and mutton, were dentfed as necesstes. Indgenous chcken meat and beef were dentfed as substtutes whle ndgenous chcken, goat and exotc chcken meats were complements. In vew of the hgh expendture elastctes, therefore, consderng a polcy opton that would enhance consumer ncome s desrable, snce t wll result n hgh consumpton thereby provdng more ncentves for producton of meat products. The nformaton generated would be more benefcal to the nterest groups n the lvestock sector as a whole. Ths would be utlsed n the formulaton of effectve polces n lne wth food securty and poverty allevaton. 1. Introducton The mportance of ndgenous chcken (IC) n ncome generaton, mprovng the nutrtonal status and food securty n rural areas has been wdely dscussed n varous studes n most developng countres [1, 2]. Unlke other lvestock speces, IC s wdely dstrbuted across most Afrcan countres [3, 4]. Ther meat s also preferred by consumers n vew of the percepton that they are healther and possess unque attrbutes such as dstnct flavour, leanness, tenderness, and colour [5]. Whte meat, whch ncludes poultry and pg meats accounts for about 19 percent of the meat, consumed n Kenya locally and for export [6]. The IC contrbutes 71 percent of the total egg and poultry meat produced and therefore, nfluencng sgnfcantly on the rural trade, welfare, and food securty of the smallholder farmers [7]. Moreover, the demand for chcken meat n the urban areas has tremendously ncreased, consequently rasng producton of chckenntherural,urbanandperurbanareas[6, 8]. The growth n consumpton especally for chcken s to some extent, attrbuted to ts percepton as a healthy alternatve to red meats besdes the low retal prces and ease of preparaton [9]. The overall growth n demand for meat would be much accelerated by the surge n human populaton, rse n ncomes, and urbansaton [10 12]. Ths mples that the rural poor and landless n the developng countres are bound to beneft from the expanded lvestock markets and mproved household food securty, thus allevatng the prevalent proten and mcronutrent defcences [13, 14]. Comparatvely, the urban poor would be less lkely to gan access to better anmal source foods (ASF), compared to those n the rural areas. The ASFs are actually easly obtaned by the urban rch [15]. Future meat producton s expected to be affected by competton of land wth the humans. However, ths would

2 2 Economcs Research Internatonal be shaped manly by the changes n consumpton patterns rather than the populaton growth [16]. Among the lvestock speces, meatfromicwouldbe theleastaffected. An analyss done by Costales et al. [17] ndcates that at least 25 percent of poultry and pg meats are produced under the landless ntensve systems whereas 19 percent and 56 percent beng under the land-based extensve and mxed crop-lvestock systems, respectvely n the sub-saharan Afrca (SSA). Therefore, unlke the rumnants meat producton, the IC enterprses gven the current producton crcumstances, the mnmal space requrements for producton and the preferences attrbuted to ther products by consumers would therefore be the most sutable and sustanable n meetng the expectatons resultng from the rse n demand for meat. Furthermore, t satsfes the two major components of food securty, that s, accessblty and avalablty. However, snce most of the IC s produced and consumed wthn the rural households, ther real contrbuton to the shfts n demand remans unaccounted for due to lack of relable consumpton data. Therefore, the purpose of ths study s to examne the pattern of consumpton for meat n rural and urban areas of Kenya, however, wth an nterest n the IC meat. The IC consumpton nformaton wll therefore facltate redefnng of producton schemes and strateges targetng food securty and the allevaton of poverty, whch s prevalent especally n most of the rural households. In ths respect, the estmates on meat demand wll assst n provdng nsghts nto the approprate polces for the IC subsector and the lvestock sector n general Consumpton of Red and Whte Meat. The poultry sector n Afrca largely domnated by chckens has grown rapdly over the years although ts future remans uncertan [3]. In spte of that, chcken meat consumpton has contnuously expanded especally n the sub-saharan Afrca (SSA) [18]. The projected consumpton for meat as a whole s expected to be more than double between 1997 and 2025 from 5.5 to 13.3 mllon metrc tonnes n Afrca [19]. Ths ncrease s partly lnked to what s referred to as the Lvestock Revoluton [13, 20]. However, the overall annual per capta meat consumpton s expected at an average of 44 kg or a total consumpton of 326 mllon metrc tonnes of meat n the developng countres by the year 2050 [21]. Moreover, poultry wll account for about 40 percent of the global ncrease n demand for meat by the year 2020, showng a shft n taste from red meat to chcken [22]. Fgure 1 shows the trend of meat consumpton n Kenya compled from the FAOSTAT data The domestc consumpton of meat has ncreased tremendously from 361,115 tonnes n 1991 to 606,169 tonnes n The per capta consumpton of meat was Kg n 1991 and rose to 16 Kg n FAO [23] projected a per capta consumpton of 22 kg by the year 2050 on average for the SSA. Accordng to these statstcs, beef s the hghest whle poultry, fsh, and pg meats are the least consumed. 2. Materals and Methods 2.1. The Study Area and Samplng Desgn. The consumpton data used n ths study comes from the cross-sectonal survey Consumpton (kg/year) Year Beef Mutton and goat meats Fsh Pg meat Poultry meat Meat + (total) Fgure 1: Annual per capta meat consumpton n Kenya. Source: FAOSTAT Data [24]. done n selected sx countes of Kenya namely, Kakamega, Saya, West Pokot, Turkana, Bomet, and Narok. Ths resulted n an ntervew of respondents from 930 households n the urban and rural areas usng structured questonnares. Pretestng of the questonnare was done n Nakuru County. The questonnare captured, demographcs, per unt market prces, and consumpton expendture nformaton from the sampled households Demand Systems Analyss Approach. Lmted number of studes has been carred out especally concernng the demand for lvestock products n Kenya. Analyss of demand has been manly based towards the aggregate food tems mostly n the urban areas. Wllamson and Shah [25] analysed the demand for food products n both the rural and urban areas of Kenya. Recent studes on demand and consumpton patterns nclude [26 28]. Musyoka et al. [28] for nstance, examned consumpton patterns n urban areas and the mplcatons to urban food securty, and Gamba [27] characterzed consumpton of meat products and eggs n Narob cty, whle Bous et al. [26] looked at the relablty of food expendture nformaton from Kenya and Phlppnes. Moreover, Chantylew and Belete [29] assessed the demand for beef, mutton and goat, pork, and chcken between 1961 and 1991 and demand for sheep and goat meat [30] among others. Several approaches to estmate demand for lvestock meat n general have been utlzed n varous studes both n the developed and developng countres. There has been use of sngle equatons and systems approach. The systems approach has prevaled over the sngle equatons use snce t allows for commodty substtuton. We wll therefore focus on the systems approach whch we eventually apply n ths study. Promnently there has been the Lnear Expendture System (LES), the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) and the generalzed forms of AIDS and the recent Quadratc AIDS (QUAIDS). Wthn the systems approach to demand or consumpton pattern analyss, the Almost Ideal Demand Model (AIDS) of Deaton and Muellbauer [31] has been the workhouse of the subject. Ths s because t

3 Economcs Research Internatonal 3 allows for approxmate aggregaton over consumers whle retanng the salent theoretcal features of flexblty. Its lnear approxmate verson, the LA/AIDS has been the most popular because of ts flexblty, relatve ease n estmaton and nterpretaton along wth other reasons [32, 33]. Nevertheless, the AIDS has been subject to crtcsm due to the lnearty of Engel curves. Ths has been the prompt upon whch the Quadratc Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS) has been bult. Recent studes n SSA and other parts n the developng world whch have employed QUAIDS nclude Abdula and Aubert [34] and Sheng et al. [35]. Therefore, to examne the demand for meat products, ths study assumes the exstence of a multstage budgetng where the household frst allocates ts ncome based on the total expenses over a broad category of commodtes and consequently to the varous subgroups of the commodtes on the budget on the subsequent stages as descrbed by Edgerton [36]. To allow for mposton of symmetry and homogenety restrctons consstent to the demand theory, a systems approach was used. Thus, we utlse the LA/AIDS model n estmatng the demand for meat products n Kenya Emprcal Model Specfcaton. Most studes that have dealt wth consumpton patterns have assumed a stepwse budgetng process wthn the household. That s, a household allocates ncome over broad categores of food and nonfood tems, then proceeds further to allocate the respectve proportons of ncome to subcategores. Consequently, at the level whch demand analyss s undertaken, the weak separablty assumpton has to be consdered as vable else should be tested. In ths study, we assume stepwse budgetng and separablty. We consder that meat s a separable subcategory of the food category. Suffce t that our meat consumpton pattern analyss s actually at the thrd stage of the budgetng. Our emprcal model follows the specfcaton of Deaton and Muellbauer, [31] Almost Ideal Demand System. Due to the nfrequent consumpton or presence of zero purchases of meat products n the data our estmaton conssts of two stages, n the frst stage, we estmate a decson to purchase wthn a probt model and then estmate an nverse Mlls rato from the probt parameters. Ths s analogous to Heckman s two-step model used n order to correct for selectvty bas [37]. The approach was frst appled wthn the demand frameworks by Heen and Wessells [38]. The estmated nverse Mlls ratos (IMRs) obtaned through an estmaton of a probt model n the frst step are then ncorporated n the Almost Ideal Demand System as an nstrumental varable n the second stage of the estmaton. The socoeconomc and demographc characterstcs are also ntroduced nto the budget share equaton to capture the dfferences n tastes and preferences across the households followng Pollack and Wales [39] translaton approach. The estmable share equaton based on the Almost Ideal Demand System demand functon s represented as w = α + γ j ln ( ) ( ) x p j + β ln + γ k Z k + ϖ IMR + ε, P j k (1) where, (, j) represents the sx meat tems, w s the budget share of the th meat product derved as w = p q /x, q s the quantty of meat purchased, p j s the prces of jth and meat, x s the total expendture of all meat products. The Z k s the demographc and socoeconomc characterstcs, IMR s the nverse mlls rato, ε s the random varable wth a zero mean and a constant varance. The P s the Stones Prce Index for the aggregate food. The Stone prce ndex was corrected for unts of measurement nvarance as shown by Moschn [40] and hence was estmated as; ln(p) = w ln(p ), (2) where w here represents the mean budget share. In order to conform to demand theory, we mposed addng up homogenety and Slutsky symmetry restrctons as follows: α = 1, k γ j = 0, β = 0, ϖ = 0, κ k = 0, j = 1,..., n (addng up) γ jk = 0, j = 1,..., n (homogenety) γ j = γ j (symmetry). Moreover, negatvty s tested after the estmaton of the compensated own prce elastctes. Followng Green and Alston [41] and Hayes et al. [42], the expendture elastcty s estmated as: ( ) ( ) ( ) 1 w e = 1+ β = 1+. (4) w log x w The Marshallan prce elastctes are estmated as ( ) γ = 1+ β (own-prce elastcty) (5) s M s M j = δ j + w ( γj w ) ( ) βj w w j,, j = 1,..., n (cross-prce elastcty), where δ j s a Kronecker delta whch s equal to 1, for = j, otherwse zero, whle the Hcksan elastctes are obtaned from, s H j = s M j + e w and s H j = s M j + e w j s as follows: ( ) s H γ = 1+ w (own-prceelastcty) s H j = δ j + w ( ) γj w, j = 1,..., n j = 1,..., n (cross-prce elastcty), (3) (6) (7)

4 4 Economcs Research Internatonal The estmaton process was carred out through seemngly unrelated regresson (SURE). The equaton of other meat was dropped to avod error covarance matrx sngularty. The deleted equaton s recovered from the mposed restrctons on the LA-AIDS model (1). The SURE systems parameter estmates n ths study are obtaned by the use of STATA 10.1 [43] econometrc software under the constraned terated seemngly unrelated regresson (ITSUR) procedure. 3. Results 3.1. Descrptve Results. Table 1 gves detals of the varables used n the emprcal data analyss. The mean age of the household head was 33.4 years, wth an average of 9 years of educaton. Approxmately, 10 percent of the famly members were below the age of 14 years and 77 percent were above. The households had an average of fve famly members. About, 41 percent of the households were n the urban and 59 percent n the rural areas. The results presented n Table 2 show the expendtures on the meat products. The expendture allocaton and partcpaton rate for the IC meat s the hghest among the meat products [44, 45], whereas the expense on the Exotc chcken (EC) meat was the least. Beef (BF) and goat (GM) meat had a far share wthn the remanng meat types. Besdes, the households sampled sometmes or do not purchase the meat products n the other meats (OT) category, whch s an aggregaton of camel meat, pork, and fsh Emprcal Results Socoeconomc and Demographc Effects. The maxmum lkelhood estmates for the socoeconomc and demographc effects and the prce and expendture effects are presentedntables3 and 4. The Ch-squares for all the equatons are sgnfcant. The R 2 for IC, EC, BF, MN, GM and OT are 63.16, 22.22, 52.90, 43.60, 60.22, and percent respectvely. The poor ft arses from the ntermttent purchases of some of the meat products. Few of the selected varables have sgnfcant nfluences on the meat budget shares as shown n Table 3. Household locaton (c loc) sgnfcantly nfluences the shares for IC negatvely and postvely for ECmeat. The varables hs1 s negatvely sgnfcant at P 0.01 for only EC and hs2at P 0.05 for shares allocated to ICand EC meats, although only hs1 s postvely sgnfcant for expendture share of GM at P In contrast, the IC, BF, and MN equatons have sgnfcant nverse Mlls ratos. Therefore, gnorng the nonconsumers of these meat categores durng the estmaton process would result n based and nconsstent parameter estmates Prce and Expendture Effects. Table 4 gves the maxmum lkelhood estmates for the prce and expendture effects on the budget shares of meat. Results ndcate that the own-prce coeffcents are postve except for the shares allocated to the other meats (OT). The own-prces have sgnfcant nfluences on the budget shares for IC meat at P 0.05, whle at P 0.01 for MN and GM. The own prces for the remanng three categores of meat products are not sgnfcant. On the other hand, the expendture coeffcents havea hgh negatve and sgnfcant nfluence on the budgetary allocatons for ICandMN, whle,for GM s postve at P Prce, Expendture Elastctes and Margnal Shares. The own and cross prce, expendtures elastctes and margnal shares are reported n Table 5. The prce elastcty matrces are comprsed of the compensated (Hcksan) and the uncompensated (Marshallan) elastctes. The results ndcate that all the Marshallan own prce elastctes of the varous meat types are negatve whch s less than zero, hence consstent wth the utlty theory. The uncompensated prce elastcty for IC, EC, BF, MN and GM are also all negatve and are , , , , and respectvely. The OT meat category elastcty s , hence very elastc. However, ths value s nadmssble hence replaced by n Table 5. The aggregaton of the meats wthn ths group may have resulted n the hgh uncompensated and compensated prce elastctes n absolute values. The compensated elastctes are all negatve. Ths satsfes the concavty requrement of the utlty functon mplyng that the Slutsky matrx also conforms to the negatve semdefnte requrement. However, for the dsaggregated meat categores,mn has the hghest compensated prce elastcty or pure prce effect, whle EC the least. The expendture on the OT category (2.6917) s the most elastc ncludng GM (1.7619) and EC (1.5020) meats, whch are greater than one and so can be regarded as luxury meat types n Kenya. The postve expendture elastctes on all the meat categores connote that the demand for meats s responsve to the allocated ncome. Based on ths, the null hypothess of ths study s consequently rejected. Addtonally, the elastctes are computed usng the total expendture of meat, hence are condtonal elastctes. The margnal expendture shares n our estmated results are calculated by multplyng the estmated expendture elastctes by the budget shares allocated to each meat category. The margnal shares also sum to one, thus conformng to the addng up condton. 4. Dscusson 4.1. Demographc, Prce, and Expendture Effects on Budget Shares. The age of the household head and years of educaton have no sgnfcant nfluences on any of the meat category s budget shares. However, the household locaton (c loc) sgnfcantly nfluences the shares for IC negatvely and postvely for EC meat. Ths demonstrates that the rural households have hgher allocaton of ther meat budget shares on IC, whle the urban on the EC meat category. Ths can be explaned by the unavalablty of the EC meat to most of the rural consumers and as well as ts dffculty n rearng under the local condtons especally by the poor households. In addton, locaton has a postve

5 Economcs Research Internatonal 5 Table 1: Varable descrpton. Varable Descrpton Range Mean Age Age of the household head (years) Educ Educaton of the household head (years) hs1 Proporton of household members 14 years and below hs2 Proporton of the household members 15 years and above c loc 1 f the household s located n the urban area, otherwse rural hsze Household sze Lnx pl Real meat expendture Imr Inverse Mlls ratos p1, p2,..., p6 Natural logs of prces of IC, EC, BF, MN, GM, and OT meat products, respectvely Table 2: Household meat expendture. Expendture meat category Mean budget shares Mean expendture (KES) Partcpaton rate Indgenous chcken (IC) Exotc chcken (EC) Beef (BF) Mutton (MN) Goat meat (GM) Other meat (OT) US$ = 76 KES. nfluence on the consumpton patterns of the remanng meat types but not sgnfcant. A study n rural Bangladesh revealed that place of resdence has a modfyng effect on meat consumpton [46]. Furthermore, t gves substantal explanaton of meat consumpton patterns snce t nfluences the avalablty and prces of meat whle at the same tme reflectng the regonal sococultural and relgous dfferences [47, 48]. The proporton of household members s shown to have an effect on the meat budget shares. The negatve effects of the proporton of household members of the age 14 years and below and those above 15 years on the budget shares of EC and IC demonstrate that the lower the proporton of the household members wthn these age groups, the hgher the expendture allocated to the respectve meat categores. Conversely, there s a postve effect on the shares allocated to GM and BFby the proporton of members 14 years and below and the 15 years and above, respectvely. Moreover, only the porton allocated to GM s reported to ncrease wth a sgnfcant declne n the sze of the household, mplyng that more of meat expendture would be allocated to ths category, the smaller the sze of the household. Deaton and Muellbauer [49] recognzed that the household sze has an effect on the consumpton of food products n general whch manly vary dependng on the composton of the householdmembers.however,anegatveeffect s expected on meat expendture shares especally for the hghly prced meat products [50]. Conversely, n ther study De Slva et al. [48] found a postve nfluence of the household sze on the consumpton of the meat products n Sr Lanka. The number of chldren n the household was dentfed as the prorty determnant nfluencng the preferences n consumpton of meat and meat products. In the present study, the household sze effect was nsgnfcant on all of the meat budget share categores, except for GM meat. The real ncome or expendture has a negatve and sgnfcant nfluence on the budgetary allocatons for ICandMN, whle postve for GM. The negatve coeffcents for IC, BF, and MN meat shares ndcate that the amounts purchased n these categores declne wth an ncome ncrease. Further, ths mples that for those meats whch are negatve, there s less proportonate ncrease n consumpton as ncome ncreases. Moreover, remans unaffected n the EC, GM, and OT categores wth the postve coeffcents. Changes n real ncomewerealsofoundtohaveaneffect on the meat and fshbudgetsharesncameroon[10]. Ths means that the consumers would reallocate ther meat budgets away from IC, BF, and MN as ncome ncreases towards the costly EC, GM, and OT meats Implcatons of Prce and Expendture Elastctes on Meat Consumpton Behavour of the Households. The results ndcate that the expendture elastctes of the varous meat categores are all postve and therefore normal commodtes. The GM andec are the most elastc meats categores n the study regons. OT category s also elastc. Indeed ths ponts to that these meat categores are stll consdered luxurous to meat consumers. Ths mples that consumpton under these categores wll more than proportonately ncrease wth an ncrease n expendture. The results suggest that the future ncreases n the consumers ncome wll consequently favour the consumpton of GM and EC meats However, proportonately less wll be spent on MN, whle on BF and IC would reman more or less the same. For nstance, estmated expendture elastcty of demand for IC s 0.85, ndcatng

6 6 Economcs Research Internatonal Table 3: ML estmates of the household socoeconomc and demographc effects. Shares Age Educ hs1 hs2 hsze c loc Imr IC (0.0012) (0.0027) (0.0927) (0.0767) (0.0081) (0.0346) (0.0299) EC (0.0006) (0.0011) (0.0390) (0.0339) (0.0034) (0.0186) (0.0189) BF (0.0008) (0.0018) (0.0607) (0.0507) (0.0054) (0.0229) (0.0343) MN (0.0004) (0.0010) (0.0344) (0.0292) (0.0032) (0.0127) (0.0182) GM (0.0007) (0.0015) (0.0521) (0.0446) (0.0052) (0.0195) (0.0375) OT Standard errors: sgnfcant at 1%, sgnfcant at 5%, and sgnfcant at 10%. Shares A Table 4: ML estmates of the meat categores prce and expendture effects. Prces P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 P6 IC (0.1253) ( ) (0.0295) (0.0272) (0.0150) (0.0251) (0.0399) (0.0161) EC (0.1271) (0.0295) (0.0259) (0.0210) (0.0160) (0.0184) (0.0217) (0.0135) BF (0.1318) (0.0272) (0.0210) (0.0524) (0.0195) (0.0256) (0.0367) (0.0155) MN (0.0902) (0.0150) (0.0160) (0.0195) (0.0271) (0.0214) (0.0225) (0.0103) GM (0.1391) (0.0251) (0.0184) (0.0256) (0.0214) (0.0336) (0.0327) (0.0200) OT Standard errors: sgnfcant at 1%, sgnfcant at 5%, and sgnfcant at 10%. β j that a 10 percent ncrease n the ncome would ncrease the demand for IC meat by 8.5 percent, whle 8.4 percent for BF and 15 percent for ECare expected. Moreover, the avalablty of some of the meat products n the OT category such as camel meat, pork, and fsh affects ther consumpton, but ts overall demand would be expected at approxmately 27 percent wth a 10 percent ncrease n ncome. Other factors especally the cultural aspects among some of the urban and rural households were observed to contrbute to the acceptance of these products and n partcular the consumpton of pork. Ths supports other fndngs where varatons n the culture and belefs ncludng health factors were dentfed to be some of the reasons contrbutng to consumpton or avodance of meat products [44, 45]. Pork n partcular s hardly consumed n the households as part of ther daly det n Kenya [29], except by a small group of hgh-ncome households [27]. Moreover, camel meat was avalable to the pastoral communtes specfcally resdng n the rural and urban centers, n some of the parts covered by ths study. Ths reason, and coupled wth other factors may have contrbuted to hgh magntudes n absolute terms for the uncompensated and compensated prce elastctes of OT, as compared to the rest of the meats, as well as to ts very elastc expendture elastcty. Sheng et al. [51], found smlar results for aggregated meat product s category representng the meats exotc to Malaysan consumers. On the contrary, snce the IC, BF, and MN expendture elastctes are less than unty then they can be consdered as necesstes among avalable meats. Therefore, they are useful n provdng essental anmal source protens for the rural and urban consumers n Kenya. In regard to other studes, chcken, beef and mutton were classfed as necesstes n Bangladesh [52], whle only beef n Tanzana [53]. However, beef and the aggregated poultry category were dentfed as luxures n urban areas [28], ncludng the aggregated meat category and fsh n Cameroon[54] and Tanzana [34]. In South Afrca, beef, and mutton were regarded as luxures whle chcken as a necessty [33], smlarly beef was a luxury and poultry n contrast was classfed as a necessty n Ngera [55]. In ths case, EC, GM, and OT meats are consdered luxures. Certanly, all uncompensated own prce elastctes are negatve, and most are less than one, except for the OT share s

7 Economcs Research Internatonal 7 Table 5: Prce, expendture elastctes, and margnal shares. Expendture share category IC EC BF MN GM OT Marshallan/uncompensated elastctes Indgenous chcken (IC) Exotc chcken (EC) Beef (BF) Mutton (MN) Goat meat (GM) Other meats (OT) Hcksan/compensated elastctes Indgenous chcken (IC) Exotc chcken (EC) Beef (BF) Mutton (MN) Goat meat (GM) Other meats (OT) Expendture elastctes Margnal shares Income elastctes category. The EC has the least own prce elastcty n absolute terms, mplyng that, n case of a unform general prce ncrease n meat, more would be allocated to EC. However, the opposte holds, as t would favour sequentally the shares on OT, IC, and BF. The estmated elastctes for IC and EC meats le between and therefore are nelastc and farly compared wth the results of Chantylew and Belete [29] wth the value of for the aggregated chcken category. Beef, chcken, and mutton were also nelastc n Bangladesh [52]. In essence, f for nstance, the prce of IC meat falls by 10 percent, then demand would grow by 7.7 percent wth the prce effect accountng for 1.8 percent whle the ncome effect as a result of the prce fall contrbutng 5.9 percent. Meanwhle, a 10 percent ncrease n per capta ncome wth a correspondng 10 percent drop n IC meat prce would result n a 14.4 percent ncrease n ts demand, gven by the addton of 5.9 percent to the correspondng expendture elastcty n Table 5. Ths descrpton also apples to the demand for the remanng meat products. Besdes that, due to the small magntudes of the compensated prce elastctes for IC and EC, the role of prces s less sgnfcant. However, prce effects for the other meat products are crtcal because of ther consderable large elastcty magntudes. Furthermore, the fndngs suggest that the meats wthn the varous categores are more of complements than they are substtutes. In most cases, the uncompensated and compensated cross-prce elastctes have the same sgns except between IC and MN also GM and MN, where the uncompensated and compensated cross-prce elastctes are negatve and postve, respectvely. In ths case, the ncome effect outweghs the substtuton effect, renderng MN an nferor meat product to IC and GM. Thus, ndcatng that consumers would purchase more of MN as a result of a prce declne. Categorcally, the IC meat s dentfed as a substtute to BF and the OT meats, whle a complement to the rest of the meats. If, for example, the prce of IC falls by 10 percent, the demand for BF would decrease by 0.2 percent n Table 5, whle 13.8 percent of ths declne would consst n the pure prce effect. Conversely, for IC complements lke GM, a 10 percent reducton n prce of IC s assocated wth an approxmately 14 percent rse n demand for GM. Same assessment apples to the other substtutes and complements. In ths case, the other estmates suggest that BF substtutes IC and MN, whle MN substtutes IC, BF and GM. In addton, EC and GM substtutes OT and are complements to rest of the meat categores. Smlarly, Chantylew and Belete [29] dentfed beef as a substtute for mutton but a complement to aggregated category of chcken meat. Addtonally, the South Afrcan consumers substtuted mutton for chcken and chcken for beef [33]. Moreover, Juma et al. [30] n ther study dentfed that the small rumnants meat s consumers would not necessarly turn to beef n case of a prce rse, but consumpton of ether product would be based prmarly on ther preferences. Ths means, therefore, that consumer preference s crucal n understandng the demand for meat products. Of all the meat categores, the IC has the hghest margnal expendture share. Ths mples that, for any future ncrease n the meat expendtures, the IC wll have the hghest allocaton wth a percentage of 58.3, despte the fact that t s lower than the current share. For ths reason, to a certan

8 8 Economcs Research Internatonal extent would be more welcomed by the poor IC farmers who depend on them for ther lvelhoods especally n the rural areas. Lkewse, expendtures onec, GM,andOT are expected to grow, wth a much smaller allocatons on BFandMN meats are expected. Accordng to Deaton and Muellbauer [31], followng an ncrease n ncome, the value of all addtonal demands should exactly be equvalent to the value of the addtonal ncome. Even though the margnal shares correspondng wth EC, GMandOT groups are lower than that of the ICn ths study, ther hgh-expendture elastctes would mean a more sgnfcant ncrease n consumpton wth an ncome ncrease n the future. Other studes n developng countres reveal that the majorty of the households consumpton and preferences were on chcken and mutton followedbybeefandporknboththeruralandurban areas of Dharwad dstrct n Inda [56] and the southern provnce of Sr Lanka [48]. Furthermore, they dentfed that the growth n expendture s expected to follow the same pattern, however, would be shaped largely by the nutrtve value, taste, tenderness, and avalablty among other factors. 5. Concluson The demand estmates n ths study are consstent wth the economc theory smlar to the others studes utlsng the AIDS model. The results suggest the exstence of dfferent nterrelatonshps among the meat products. There s evdence of substtuton between the meat products, wth ndgenous chcken substtutng for beef, whle mutton substtutes beef, ndgenous chcken and goat meats. Indgenous chcken, beef, and mutton are also necesstes among the avalable meats. Furthermore, the elastcty estmates are necessary n makng polces and strateges targetng the meat ndustry n general n order to mprove the natonal meat producton, thereby satsfyng the local consumpton and obtanng surplus for exports. These results, therefore, have mportant mplcatons to polcy. Seemngly, household ncome s lkely to have hgher mpacts on meat consumpton than prces. The magntudes of the former are hgher than those of the latter. The current estmates show that polces such as a general prce ncrease n meat ntended to assst producers would not have a sgnfcant adjustment n the consumers consumpton patterns as those that favour growth n ncomes. Intatng ncome-related polces would mean that consumers would be able to purchase more, n partcular exotc chcken, goat meat, and the other meats (OT) whch are dentfed to have hgh-expendture elastctes, and hence consdered luxures. However, wth an ncrease n ncome, meat allocaton patterns would fundamentally change wth consumers spendng more on other meats (OT), exotc chcken and goat meats away from the ndgenous chcken meat ncludng beef and mutton. Furthermore, ndgenous chcken, wdely kept n rural and urban Kenya, are a necessty, and hence play an mportant role n household dets. Therefore, polcy formulaton should be careful not to mpose taxes on the ndgenous chcken meat. Appendx Alternatvely, the Income elastcty can be estmated as: ln x = α 0 + α 1 ln X + β ln P + k γ k H k + μ, (A.1) where X s the total expendture on meat products, X s the total expendtures of food and nonfood. The P s the prce ndex for food and μ s the random varable wth zero mean and a constant varance. Acknowledgments The authors are very grateful for grants offered to the frst author from the Yousef Jameel Scholarshp and Humboldt Unversty of Berln. They also recognze the nputs from the Kenya Agrcultural Productvty Project (KAPP) through the Indgenous Chcken Improvement Project (INCIP) collaboraton between Egerton Unversty, Mnstry of Lvestock Development (MoLD) and Kenya Agrcultural Research Insttute (KARI). References [1] A.J.Ktaly,Vllage Chcken Producton Systems n Rural Afrca: Household Food Securty and Gender Issues, FAO, Rome, Italy, [2] F. Moges, T. Azage, and D. 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