Climate Change: A Challenge for Fruit Growers Worldwide

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1 Climate Change: A Challenge for Fruit Growers Worldwide Jeffrey A. Andresen Dept. of Geography Michigan State University Interpoma 2014 Bozen/Bolzano, Italy

2 Outline Historical Trends Future Projections Agronomic Impacts Adaptive Strategies

3 Specialty Crops and Weather/Climate Dependence Large number, variety of specialty crops, relatively less known about weather/climate dependence Most specialty crops are produced at a relatively high level of management, with diverse sensitivities Quantity and Quality Pest management of special importance Weather/Climate variability and extreme events

4 Historical Climatic Trends

5 Historical Changes in Temperature (IPCC, 2014)

6 Date of Side Green vs. Year Traverse City, MI (Andresen et al, in prep)

7 Number of Freeze Events Following Side Green vs. Year Traverse City, MI (Andresen et al, in prep)

8 Historical Changes in Precipitation (IPCC, 2014)

9 Global Changes in Humidity (IPCC, 2014)

10 Future Projections

11 (IPCC, 2013)

12 Projected Changes in Temperature (IPCC, 2013)

13 Projected Changes in Precipitation (IPCC, 2013)

14 Projected Preciptation-Related Changes vs (Pryor and Scavia, 2013)

15 Climate Projection Reality Check Projections from process-based climate simulation models are currently the best estimate of future conditions given a wide range of possible economic and other conditions The projections offer a idea of general trends and directions for many variables Limited ability to describe: Local scale spatial and temporal variability Extreme events Downscaling of projections is possible, but very resource intensive and sometimes limited The expected skill of the projections is limited, which translates into uncertainty in regards to dependent decisions. The level of uncertainty tends to increase with projection lead time and in view of associated applications (e.g. crop model simulations)

16 Impacts of Climatic Variability Past history suggests that society may be able to cope/adapt with steady climatic changes, but possibly not with changes in variability (e.g. changes in extremes, storminess)

17 Projected Future Weather Extremes- Related Impacts (IPCC, 2012) Virtual Certainty: increases in the frequency and magnitude of warm daily temp. extremes and decreases in cold extremes. Very Likely: Increase in the length, frequency, and/or intensity of warm spells or heat waves. Mean sea level rise will contribute to upward trends in extreme coastal high water levels. Likely: Increase in the frequency of heavy precipitation and the proportion of total rainfall from heavy events, and in avg. tropical cyclone maximum wind speed. Medium Confidence: Intensification of droughts, and decreases in the global frequency of tropical cyclones and the number of extratropical cyclones.

18 Agronomic Impacts

19 Potential Tree Fruit Related Direct Impacts Changes in dormancy/phenology cycle Mid-Latitude Temperate Areas Longer frost-free growing season Potential poleward shift of production areas Reduction in frost risk (?) Subtropical Areas Lack of chilling hours Heat stress Reduction or lack of flowering synchrony among pollinators CO 2 Enrichment Increasing water needs (irrigation) Extreme weather events Changes in the distribution of pests (inc. exotics) In tropical areas, production limited to higher elevations

20 Crop Response to Increasing CO 2 Concentrations (From Hatfield et al., 2011)

21 Mean Air Temperature vs. PET East Lansing, MI June-August,

22 Potential Tree Fruit Related Indirect Impacts Changes in the distribution of pests (including exotics) Changes in host plants and insect vector or plant populations Increased rates of soil erosion and degradation Increased pressure on environmental and natural resources, loss of biodiversity Surface and ground water availability Loss of species Changing international production, trade patterns

23 Simulated Pest Management Parameters, Apple Codling Moth East Jordan, MI SGDD No.Gen. No.Sprays Obs., HadCM CGCM

24 Other CO 2 -related impacts (Wolf et al., 2007)

25 Adaptive Strategies

26 Potential Adaptive Strategies Development of adapted cultivars, especially with regard to dormancy break and/or control. However, given that typical breeding programs require many years, new molecular genetic approaches will be needed Insurance, financial risk management Application of materials to reduce canopy and fruit temperature (e.g. reflective particle films, water mist) New management strategies including crop load adjustment, canopy pruning, irrigation, increased use of mechanization, and automation technology New biological and chemical control strategies for a changing pest complex Development of new carbon/nitrogen sequestering or neutral production management strategies

27 Ratio of Surviving Buds vs. Year Maple City, MI

28 Use of Water Misting to Delay Phenological Development

29 PhenologicalDelays Associated with Misting Treatment Control (left) and Mist Treatment (right) on Red Delicious May 16, 2014 St. Joseph, MI

30 Summary Overall, almost all production areas have become warmer during the past half century. Seasonality has changed in many areas, especially in the spring. Some mid-latitude areas have become wetter while many sub-tropical areas have become drier. At least some the increase has been associated with extreme events. Most recent projections suggest continued warming in all production areas (2-6 C by 2100). Annual precipitation is projected to increase in mid-latitude areas and decrease in sub-tropical areas. Summers may be drier. Projected future climate trends suggest a mix of beneficial and adverse impacts. Climate variability is a critical factor in determining impacts. Dynamic adaptive strategies are especially important given the relatively long planning horizons.

31 Thank You!