Using systems thinking to understand food insecurity across fisheries and agricultural systems in coastal communities within Southeast Asia

Transcription

1 Using systems thinking to understand food insecurity across fisheries and agricultural systems in coastal communities within Southeast Asia

2 Research Objective Assess the future vulnerability of island coastal communities who are reliant on fisheries and agriculture to achieve a food secure future, by understanding the ecosystem and socioeconomic system interactions and dynamics

3 Food security or food insecurity? Food security exists when all people at all times have physical or economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet all their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life (FAO 2006)

4 Five aspects of food security Five aspects of food security: 1. Availability: enough food to feed people 2. Access: ability of people to physically obtain and economically procure food 3. Utilisation: use of food for body s nutrition and the utility (pleasure) obtained from food 4. Stability: people feel certain about where their next meal is coming from 5. Suitability: determining one s quality of life, culturally acceptable and preferences

5 Why systems thinking as an approach? Source: Ingram (2011) A Food system approach to researching food security and its interactions with global environmental change

6 Why systems thinking as an approach? Food security is a complex or wicked problem. Cannot be addressed in isolation part of a system Practitioners do not have a singular framework to address food security Food security is intrinsically linked to livelihoods Current research focuses on: global or regional levels very little on local scales and impacts agricultural or fisheries treated as separate systems singular aspect focus with food systems Enables an exploration of food insecurity at the local level

7 The El Nido Case Study

8 El Nido Site

9 Research Approach & Results

10 1. Problem Articulation Source: Sterman (2006), Business dynamics: Systems thinking and modelling for a complex world

11 Food Insecurity Drivers Drivers: Increasing population brought about by increasing tourism Increasing demand on resources Loss of agricultural land due to development Habitat degradation Resource depletion Climate related incidence

12 2. Dynamic Hypothesis Source: Sterman (2006), Business dynamics: Systems thinking and modelling for a complex world

13 2. Dynamic Hypothesis Step 1: Systems Mapping Conducted Community Participatory Workshops (CPWs)

14 Community Participatory Workshops 18 barangays 54 CPWs 796 participants

15 2. Dynamic Hypothesis Step 1: Systems Mapping Created mental models or rich pictures of the problem using SESAMME tool Resources Resource use activities Pressures influencing the resources and activities The past, expected future and desired future trends Interactions between these activities, resources and pressures, and Decisions that could be taken to address problematic trends in these activities, resources or pressures

16 SESAMME

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19 Resources Forest Coconut Palm Mangrove Fish Natural Water source Livestock Seagrass Shells / Shellfish Crops Coral Vegetables Fruit Nipa / Pawid Turtle (Pawikan) Sea Cucumber (Balatan) Rice Piggery Poultry Wildlife Crabs (Alimasag) Non Timber (rattan, buho, yantok) Seaweed (Lato) Timber Beach (Lapuslapus) Dugong Prawns / shrimps Squid Honey / honey bees Lobster Sand and gravel Waterfall Seahorse Manlet (giant clam) Balansasayaw (birds nest) Rivers Caves (Pasimbahan) River turtle Sea Urchin Octopus (Pugita) Abalone Upland Rice (kaingin rice) Water system (stream) Manta Rays Dolphin Shark Cashews Latian (kaingin produce) Pandan Irrigation Tamilok Guano Rattan Kugon Buri Creek Limestone cliffs Planted trees Forest over limestone Jelly Fish Coffee Saging Minerals (Manganese) Hot springs Lake Whale Shark (butanding) Freshwater fish Wild Boar Wild Chicken Resources: FGD Round One % of barangays Nbr of barangays who identified resources Natural Water source Forest Vegetables Poultry Wildlife Coconut Palm Non Timber (rattan, Manmade water source Beach (Lapuslapus) Seagrass Mangrove Other important marine Crustaceans Shells / Shellfish Fish Rice Fruit Crops Livestock Nipa / Pawid Timber Coral Seaweed (Lato) Molluscs Upland Rice (kaingin Sand and gravel Rivers Cashews Balansasayaw (swfits) Watershed Caves (Pasimbahan) Balansasayaw (birds Water system (stream) Limestone cliffs Forest over limestone Fish resources Resources FGD Round Two % of barangays Nbr of barangays

20 CLD for the Agricultural Food System Fertiliser Agricultural Productivity (yield per ha) Water Shortages Water Supply / Demand Ratio Water Supply Emigration rate Pesticide Agricultural Production Demand for Water Emigration Agrochemical Runoff Agricultural Land Total Suitable Agricultural Land Demand for Agricultural Land Land Clearing for Agricultural Development B16 Land that can be cleared for Agriculture Income from Farming Income from other Employment Attractiveness of Farming Price of locally produced Ag Products B15 Demand for Agricultural Products Supply / Demand Ratio for Agricultural Products Supply of Agricultural Products Attractiveness of other Employment Shift to Tourism and other Employment Import of Agricultural Products Vertically Integrated Hotel Supply Chains Water Quality Boat anchoring and trampling corals B11 Tourist Activities B8 Sewage B12 B10 Disease Outbreak Births B9 B4 Labour Jobs R1 B3 Population B2 Tourist Population R2 Immigration B1 Labour / Job ratio R3 Attractiveness of area to tourists B7 Quarrying Development Deaths Reclaimation Demand for sand & gravel Immigration rate B6 Demand for Charcoal Demand for nontimber resources Illegal occupancy of forest Mangrove Cover Demand for timber Land clearing for development B14 Forest Cover B13 B5 Clearing for land ownership Cutting & Logging Coral Reef Cover Erosion and Sedimentation

21 CLD for tourism, development & habitat degradation

22 Livelihoods and alternative food sources impacting on the food system

23 3. Formulation of simulation models Going from a conceptual qualitative understanding to..

24 To a quantitative dynamic model of the system

25 Thank you

26 Acknowledgements Dr Carl Smith, The University of Queensland Dr Russell Richards, The University of Queensland Prof. Angela (Helen) Ross, The University of Queensland Ms Noreen (Kubi) Follosco, University of the Philippines Ms Miladel Quibilan, University of the Philippines El Nido Foundation Capturing Coral Reef and Related Ecosystem Services Project World Bank Global Environment Facility