Towards Zero Hunger. Ken Giller & Martin van Ittersum Plant Production Systems, Wageningen University

Transcription

1 Towards Zero Hunger Ken Giller & Martin van Ittersum Plant Production Systems, Wageningen University

2 Outline The challenge of Global Food Security Yield gaps around the world Doing more with less Doing more with more Conclusions and questions

3 The Sustainable Development Goals SDG 2 End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture 3

4 Food Security First time report focuses on conflict Worrying increase in food insecurity

5 Sudden food price surges have triggered conflict in more than 40 countries FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP & WHO (2017) The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World. Building resilience for peace and food security. FAO, Rome. Lagi, M., Bertrand, K.Z. & Bar Yam, Y. (2011) The food crises and political instability in North Africa and the Middle East. New England Complex Systems Institute, Cambridge, USA. 5

6 Sudden food price surges have triggered conflict in more than 40 countries Has conflict declined? FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP & WHO (2017) The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World. Building resilience for peace and food security. FAO, Rome. Lagi, M., Bertrand, K.Z. & Bar Yam, Y. (2011) The food crises and political instability in North Africa and the Middle East. New England Complex Systems Institute, Cambridge, USA. 6

7 Global impacts

8 Students studying Plant Sciences A Golden Age for Plant Sciences?

9 6 An extra billion people in Africa before 2050 Total Population (billions) Asia Africa Europe Latin America & Caribbean N America Year Gerland et al. (2014) World population stabilization unlikely this century. Science 346, Issue 6206, DOI: /science

10 Food demand versus income (per capita) Tilman et al. (2011) PNAS, 108,

11 Looking ahead: Pathways to % availability Grain equivalents per year (billion tonnes) 10 Reducing demand Increasing production 5 Avoiding losses current production capacity after Keating et al., Global Food Security MOOC: Growing our Future Food: Crops

12 Cereal self sufficiency rates (SSR) 100 FAO (2016) See Clapp, J. (2017) Food Policy, 66,

13 Current self sufficiency ratios cereals 2010 Source: FAOstat van Ittersum et al. (2016) Can sub Saharan Africa feed itself? PNAS, 113,

14 Yield gap analysis Photo: Ken Gillerr

15 Global Yield Gap Atlas Wageningen UR, University of Nebraska, ICRISAT, AfricaRice, CIMMYT and many regional and national partners Led by Martin van Ittersum and Ken Cassman Major food crops in the world Global protocol with local application Local data and evaluation Strong agronomic foundation 64 countries October 2017

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18 Have cereal yields reached a plateau? Grain yield (t ha -1 ) Rice R.Korea China Indonesia India Wheat Northwest Europe China India Maize USA-irrigated USA-rainfed China Brazil Year Year Year Cassman, 1999; Cassman et al., 2010; Grassini et al., 2011

19 Genetic progress of wheat in Europe Yield improvement of Dutch winter wheat varieties on marine clay soils Grain yield (Mg ha -1 ) Variety Farm Rijk, Van Ittersum, Withagen (2013) Field Crops Research 149,

20 Doing more with less 20

21 Yield Use efficiency - Surplus NUE (kg/kg) PUE (kg/kg) NUE N Yield N Surplus PUE N yield or N surplus (kg/ha) P Yield P Surplus P yield or P surplus (kg/ha) Years Years 0 Prins, H., C. Daatselaar & T. de Koeijer (2016) Wageningen Economic Research.

22 Intercropping LER :2WM 6:0WM 0:2WM 6:3WM 8:2WM 6:2WM 6:0WM 0:2WM 6:3WM 8:2WM Fang, van Ittersum, Wang, van der Putten, van der Werf, 2016, Eur. J. Agron. 76, 17 27

23 Doing more with more 23

24 Climbing beans in Rwanda No manure With Manure and P Putting nitrogen fixation to work for smallholder farmers in Africa

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26 Conclusions and Questions Global Food Security is a key geo-political issue Plant Science is at the heart of ensuring food supply When and where should we try and close yield gaps? When should we strive to do more with less? When should we strive to do more with more? Who will produce the World s food?