Josef Schmidhuber. The Food Equation Taking a long/term View on World Agriculture, Climate Change and Food Security

Transcription

1 The Food Equation Taking a long/term View on World Agriculture, Climate Change and Food Security Josef Schmidhuber Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)

2 Drivers of change POPULATION and INCOME

3 Total population (billions) 16 Population growth to continue Annual increments (millions) High variant low variant

4 Urbanization to accelerate 7 6 billion people Rural Urban

5

6

7 Consumption(kcal/pc) and GDP p.c. (62 Developing Countries)

8 Impacts on FOOD AVAILABILITY & PRODUCTION

9

10 Past and projected increase in food production Percent / / / World Developed Developing

11 Impacts of change HUNGER & MALNUTRITION

12

13 The Hunger targets The MDG one hunger target can be reached, with additional efforts The WFS goal is out of reach:

14 The changing distribution of hunger in the world, Latin America and the Caribbean, 6.8% North Africa, 0.6% Western Asia, 0.8% South-Eastern Asia, 13.6% Caucasus and Central Asia, 0.9% Southern Asia, 28.8% Oceania, 0.1% Developed regions, 2.0% Western Asia, 2.3% Latin America and the Caribbean, 4.6% North Africa, 1.6% South-Eastern Asia, 7.9% Eastern Asia, 20.0% Caucasus and Central Asia, 0.7% Oceania, 0.2% Southern Asia, 34.3% Developed regions, 1.8% Eastern Asia, 29.1% Sub Saharan Africa, 17.3% Sub Saharan Africa, 26.6% Total = 1015 million Total = 805 million *

15 The shape of things to come? The Economist, December 2003

16 Provisional nutritional outcomes (global averages/aggregates) undernourished % of population with kcal/person/day obese % million >2700 >3000 % million 2012/

17 Impacts of Bioenergy and new Demands

18 How big is the energy market? 1. Energy market (TPES): nearly 500 EJ 2. Biomass: 50 EJ (80% in developing countries) 3. Biofuels: 3.3 EJ, on ca. 33 million ha 4. Transport energy needs: ca. 95 EJ 5. Crop area to cover transport energy needs: >1000 million ha, i.e. 2/3 of global crop area. => Energy market ispotentially large, creates perfectly elastic demand for agricultural produce up to break-even points (parity prices). => Blendwalls reached for ethanol in the US and approached for biodiesel in the EU. Saturation without further subsidies or lifting blendwalls => Bio-energy subsidies have a price supporting impact, not price depressing as the traditional coupled agricultural subsidies. No WTO pressure to reduce/eliminate them

19

20

21 P From Cochrane to Jevons? D2 Cost reduction thru R&D, better varieties, management, etc. D1 Demand increase when demand is inelastic Demand increase when demand is elastic Q

22 Impacts of change RESOURCES & ENVIRONMENT

23 s there enough cropland nd enough yield potential?

24 1600 Cropland potential and actual use 2005/07, 2050 and Million ha Sub-Saharan Africa Latin America East Asia South Asia Near East/North Africa Total Potential Actual land in use 2005/ Developed & transition

25

26

27 Impacts of change RESOURCES & ENVIRONMENT

28 Is there enough water?

29 Economic and physical water scarcity

30 Global Water Scarcity (2000)

31 What does agriculture contribute to GHG emissions?

32 Giga g CO2 eq 7000, , , , , , ,000 GHG baseline, World: continuing a past trend vs actual projections to 2050 Hot Air Ambition Agriculture total, no Energy, no Savanna burning Agriculture total, no Energy, no Savanna burning Linear trend 3500, , , ,

33

34

35 How does Climate Change affect agriculture and food security?

36 Percentage change in world food (cereal) prices in relation to changes in temperatures Fischer et al. Food prices Parry et al. Tsigas et al. Adams et al. Darwin Reilly et al Temperature 0 C Source: IPCC, AR4

37 1. Improvements over time 2. CC is bad for FS 3. SRES>>CC 4. CO2 fertilization is important

38 How do we model the impacts of Climate Change on agriculture and food security?

39 GCMs What we are modelling: 20 agro-meteorological to agro-ecological combinations Representative Concentration Pathways

40 How we are going to estimate impacts of Climate Change 1. Changing Climate 2. Changing agro-ecology 3. Changing agro-economy Mapping CC GCM variables Precipitation Temperature Agro-edaphic CO2 Many more GCMs/RCP Productivity Cropland and pasture suitability Mapping potential to actual yields/area GCMs/RCP Actual production, yields Incomes, consumption Hunger, undernourishment Dec 2014 June 2015 Dec 2015

41 CC and Food Security: The Stability Dimension How we are going to estimate impacts of extreme weather events? 1. Changing Climate 2. Changing agro-ecology 3. Changing agro-economy GCM variables Mapping CC Extreme weather events Droughts, Floods Hurricanes, Typhoons, Tornados Frequency, duration, severity GCMs/RCP AEZ Productivity, short and long-term Marginal land, short and long term Suitability, short term and long-term GCMs/RCP Competitive storage model Price volatility Volatility and production level effects Stocks, buffer needs Hunger, famine undernourishment June 2015 June 2016 Dec 2016

42 Overview and Summary 1. Global food demand will continue to rise, albeit at a slower pace (+60% by 2050) 2. In a BAU world, food security will continue to improve, the number of hungry will decline. Ditto for other forms of malnutrition (bar obesity). 3. Higher energy prices or massive climate change could worsen the outlook significantly, particularly for the poor and hungry. 4. The natural resources for such an increase are sufficient globally, but they are already now compromised locally. 5. The growth of GHG emissions from agriculture to decline with growing saturation, important for the definition of GHG targets 6. Climate change affects all dimensions of food security: Access and utilization: access to improve with poverty reduction, ditto for utilization, but later and with higher incomes only Availability: no global, but local challenges Stability: the most severe challenge of CC on FS, coping with extreme weather events needs early policy action and decisions, not only for FS

43 THANKS