Barrie Bonsal, Elaine Wheaton, Virginia Wittrock, Evan Siemens, Nick Nicolichuk DRI Workshop, Winnipeg, May 11 th, 2010

Transcription

1 Barrie Bonsal, Elaine Wheaton, Virginia Wittrock, Evan Siemens, Nick Nicolichuk DRI Workshop, Winnipeg, May 11 th, 2010

2 A preliminary analysis of the 2001 and 2002 drought years in Canada suggests the Gross Domestic Product lost some $5.8 billion in 2001 and 2002, with the largest loss - more than $3.6 billion - occurring in Wheaton et al Comparing the drought to previous extreme drought years (1919, 29, 61, 88) Also looking at similarities between the and 2009 drought Assessing impacts and adaptations of the 2009 drought PDSI: Palmer Drought Severity Index SPI: Standardized Precipitation Index

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4 (1) Onset of drought (above 10%) (2) Growth or extension (between 10% to 50% leading to peak) (3) Persistence (remaining above 50%) (4) Peak (greatest area coverage) (5) Decline or decrease in area (50% to 10% following peak) (6) Termination of drought (<10%)

5 Severe drought (% of grids) PDSI

6 Severe drought (% of grids) PDSI (4) Feb Sep 2001-Apr 2002 (3) Jun 2001-Aug 2001 (2) May 2001 (1) (5) May 2002-Apr 2003 (6) May 2003

7 1987-Jan 1987-Feb 1987-Mar 1987-Apr 1987-May 1987-Jun 1987-Jul 1987-Aug 1987-Sep 1987-Oct 1987-Nov 1987-Dec 1988-Jan 1988-Feb 1988-Mar 1988-Apr 1988-May 1988-Jun 1988-Jul 1988-Aug 1988-Sep 1988-Oct 1988-Nov 1988-Dec 1989-Jan 1989-Feb 1989-Mar 1989-Apr 1989-May 1989-Jun 1989-Jul 1989-Aug 1989-Sep 1989-Oct 1989-Nov 1989-Dec Severe drought (% of grids) PDSI (4) Jul May 1988-Jun 1988 (3) 50.0 (5) Dec 1988-Oct Feb 1988-Apr 1988 (2) Jan 1988 (1) Nov 1989 (6)

8 1928-Jan 1928-Feb 1928-Mar 1928-Apr 1928-May 1928-Jun 1928-Jul 1928-Aug 1928-Sep 1928-Oct 1928-Nov 1928-Dec 1929-Jan 1929-Feb 1929-Mar 1929-Apr 1929-May 1929-Jun 1929-Jul 1929-Aug 1929-Sep 1929-Oct 1929-Nov 1929-Dec 1930-Jan 1930-Feb 1930-Mar 1930-Apr 1930-May 1930-Jun 1930-Jul 1930-Aug 1930-Sep 1930-Oct 1930-Nov 1930-Dec Severe drought (% of grids) PDSI Aug 1929-Nov 1929 (3) Jan 1929-Jul 1929 (2) (4) Oct 1929 (5) Dec 1929-Sep Dec 1928 (1) Oct 1930 (6)

9 Six stage system was evident in every major drought we have looked at Some droughts have longer stages than others, specifically in stage 2 (growth) and 5 (decline) PDSI tends to have a longer stage 5 than SPI, possibly due to the lag effect created by this index Secondary peaks and droughts are defining aspects of stage 5 for both SPI and PDSI First attempt at applying a class system for comparison and understanding of droughts

10 Media survey which focuses on key words Crop Yield, Quality, Pest, Disease Livestock Economic Government Programs Water Municipalities, Communities

11 218 Articles from Jan to Feb newspapers and online sources Based on categories and identified through keywords Number of articles for each category and month were tabulated to create various tables and graphs for the study

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13 Number of articles Crops Economic Livestock Gov Prog Water 0 Yield Quality Pests Diseases Livestock Economic Gov Programs Municipalities Communities

14 Spring 2009 Cold and Dry

15 Summer 2009 Cold and Wet

16 Late Fall 2009 hot and dry Makes 2010 look like it could be interesting

17 Number of articles JULY May Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10

18 Number of articles Crops Livestock Economic Crop Insurance Rural Water Program 10 0

19 ? Questions?

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21 Bonsal BR, and E.E. Wheaton Atmospheric circulation comparisons between the 2001 and 2002 and the 1961 and 1988 Canadian Prairie droughts. Atmos Ocean 43: Bonsal, B., E. Wheaton, E. Siemens, N. Nicolichuk Drought Characterizations Presentation at the Climate Hazards Workshop, November 25 th, 2009, Research Council, Saskatoon. SRC Publication No D09. Bonsal, B., E. Wheaton, A. Meinert, and E. Siemens Characterizing the Surface Dynamics of the Canadian Prairie Drought. Research Council, Saskatoon. Draft. For submission to Atmosphere- Ocean. Meinert, A. B. Bonsal, E. Wheaton, and E. Siemens An Assessment of Various Drought Indices Associated with the Canadian Prairie Drought. Research Council, Saskatoon. Publication No E10. Stewart, R.E., Canadian Prairie Drought and the Drought Research Initiative (DRI). Presented at CMOS/CGU/AMS Congress 2007 in St. John's, NL. Accessed on Nov. 24 th, Wittrock, V. and E. Wheaton. Jan Climate Variability and Trends of and the Canadian Prairies. Invited Presentation to the Alfalfa Seed Producers Association 2010 Alfalfa Seed Conference. Saskatoon. January 14-15, SRC. Pub. # D10. Wittrock, V., E. Wheaton, E. Siemens More than a Close Call: A Preliminary Assessment of the Characteristics, Impacts of and Adaptations to the Drought of 2009 in the Canadian Prairies (Draft). Research Council, Saskatoon. Publication No ??-E10.