SARDAR MUHAMMAD TARIQ Chief Executive Officer Pakistan Water Partnership (PWP), Ex-Member (Water) WAPDA, Former Regional Chair, GWP-South Asia

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1 SARDAR MUHAMMAD TARIQ Chief Executive Officer Pakistan Water Partnership (PWP), Ex-Member (Water) WAPDA, Former Regional Chair, GWP-South Asia

2 Water Scarcity Indicators Volume Of Water (Falkenmark Indicators) >1700 M 3 /Capita Water Scarcity Rare. <1700 M 3 /Capita Country faces seasonal or regular waterstressed conditions. <1000 M 3 /Capita Water shortages hamper the health and well-being of the human beings, economic activities are affected. <500 M 3 /Capita Shortages are severe constraints to human life. Water Scarcity Indicators: 1700 m3/person is the threshold value. Definition: A water resource system is considered stressed if it is unable to deliver the necessary water for environmental, social and economic purposes. 2

3 Water Security Indicator - Continued Water Storage Capacity In Pakistan surplus water is available only in 30 days, 335 days water availability is less than demand. i.e. we are in hydrological drought condition Therefore to meet water demand we must have 40% storage capacity of total water availability. Pakistan storage capacity is only 7% Third water security issue is that 85% of river flow is transboundary. It passes through Indian held Kashmir. India's continuous interference with river flows threatens Pakistan water security ---- Water terrorism Climate Change impact on water security - Violent hydrological cycles Severe Floods Prolonged Droughts - Melting of glaciers Less Water More Population More Demand 3

4 Global Perspective Water Availability 97% saline water - 3% fresh water. 2% fresh water caped in glaciers and icebergs. Out of remaining 1%, 20% cannot be captured inaccessible. Remaining fresh water globally available is only 0.8% and is finite. This 0.8% amounts to 43,659 BCM. In case it is uniformly distributed over the globe, it is in abundance i.e. 6,064 m 3 /person/year With 1,700 m 3 /P/Y it can cater for a population of 26 billion. Problem: Variability in space and time rain forest on one hand and desert on other. 4

5 Pakistan Specific Water Availability Pakistan is one of the world s most arid countries Over 75% of it receives rainfall less than 250 mm annually and 20% of it less than 125 mm. The population and economy are heavily dependent on an annual influx into Indus River System of about 191 BCM of water mostly derived from snow and glacier melt. Since 2002, 12 BCM of water has disappeared. Surplus water is only available during 30 days, 335 days water availability is less than demand ---- drought condition 5

6 25mm Deserts 250 mm 125 mm Pakistan Pakistan Rain fall in mm RAIN FOREST mm Rain Forest Deserts 75% 20% AREA AREA 7

7 Water Availability in Pakistan Volume of Water Surface Water 191 BCM Ground Water: Total Area 16.0 Million Hectare Saline 10.0 Million Hectare(63%) Fresh Water 6.0 Million Hectare(37%) Total Quantity Available 73.0 BCM Present Extraction 62.0 BCM (85%) Balance 11.0 BCM (economic limit) Secondary Salinization, Fluorides & Arsenic. 12 BCM of inflows disappeared since

8 Linkages of Water 8

9 Linkage of Water Water has strong linkages with: Food Security Energy Security Health & Wellbeing. Development and Employment Industries Exports. Foreign Exchange Earnings Environment & Biodiversity. Forestry Life and National Security. On the other hand, water scarcity results in: Impediments to development - Unemployment - Hunger Water-borne Diseases - Environmental Degradation - Water thefts - Water Refugees, Water Terrorism and Water Wars. 9

10 (Water Security Challenges) A High Risk Water Environment Pakistan s dependence on single river system is highly vulnerable. I has little flexibility as compared to most of the countries enjoyed by virtue of multiple river basins and diversity of water resources. If the water/sediment/salt system of the Indus Basin goes badly wrong, that s it and unfortunately we are very close to it. 10

11 Water Management Challenges POPULATION ( MILLIONS) CANAL DIVERSIONS (MAF) POPULATION ( MILLIONS) POPULATION GROWTH PER CAPITA AVAILABILITY (M) 3 a AFTER MANGLA INDEPENDENCE AFTER TARBELA AFTER TREATY BEFORE TREATY 5650 m3 (1951) m m³ m m YEARS NB: Population growth by 2025 would be equal to 8 times the population of Balochistan

12 per capita availability m³/p/y IWT Impact on Per Capita Availability on Water Indus Water Treaty and Population Growth m³ (1951) Loss of 41 BCM Water scarcity rare 1700 m³ (1992) m³ (2002) 878 m³ (2017) Water stressed conditions 550m³ (2025)

13 POPULATION MILLIONS POPULATION MILLIONS Population Growth NB: Population growth by 2025 would be equal to 8 times the present population of Balochistan

14 Water Diversion Capacity (MAF) LOSS OF IRRIGATION WATER AFTER MANGLA AFTER TARBELA 106MAF 104 MAF 98.6 MAF AFTER TREATY 90 - BEFORE TREATY CANAL DIVERSION (MAF) 14

15 Over use of Water in Agriculture Sector Pakistan uses more than 90% of water in agriculture sector against world average of 67% - Developed countries use even less than 50%. India 93% 87% China 87% 65% Pakistan 90% USA 42% Germany 20% France 15% Total Water 191BCM Rice Crop 70 BCM, Cotton Crop 50BCM, Wheat Crop 50BCM 15

16 Productivity Per Unit of Water Canada 8.72 kg/ m 3 USA 1.56 kg/ m 3 China 0.82 kg/ m 3 India 0.39 kg/ m 3 Pakistan 0.13 kg/ m 3 16

17 Productivity Per Unit of Land France Egypt Saudi Arabia Punjab (India) Punjab (Pak) Pakistan (Average) 7.60 T/ha 5.99 T/ha 5.36 T/ha 4.80 T/ha 2.30 T/ha 2.24 T/ha 17

18 GDP Contribution Per M 3 of Water World (Average) Developed Countries Malaysia Developing Countries 8.60 US$ US$ 10 US$ 0.34 US$ 1 MAF CONTRIBUTION TO PAKISTAN S AGRICULTURAL GDP = US CENT MAF CONTRIBUTION TO USA AGRICULTURAL GDP = US $

19 Reservoir Sedimentation Reservoir Tarbela 1974 Mangla 1967 Chashma 1972 Live Storage Capacity (BCM) Live Storage Loss (BCM) Original Year 2014 Year 2020 Year Total (-7.50) Indus deposits 500,000 tons of salt every day in Tarbela Reservoir. 19

20 Seasonal Carry Over From Kharif to Rabi Without Mangla & Chashma With Mangla & Chashma Kharif 88% Rabi 12% Rabi Kharif Kharif 84% Rabi 16% Rabi Kharif (INCREASE OF 7.4 BCM) With Tarbela Dam Present Position Rabi Kharif 79% 21% Rabi Kharif (INCREASE OF 16.0 BCM) Rabi 18% (DECREASE OF 6.2 BCM) Rabi Kharif 82% Kharif 20

21 Indus Basin Irrigation System Annual Salt inflow/outflow Per Annum Total brought into the System Total Salt deposited in Indus Basin Irrigation System Wash out of System Salt deposited in Punjab Salt deposited in Sindh 33.0 M. Tons 24.0 M. Tons 9.0 M. Tons 13.6 M. Tons 10.4 M. Tons - Severe impact on land quality/food security. 21

22 Loss of Potential for not having Storages Upto October 2016, 1570 BCM of water has gone to the sea unutilized over the last 38 years. It would have contributed US $ 636 Billion to Pakistan's agriculture GDP alone. Total Hydropower losses = 430,000 MW Total Energy losses = 2,030 Twh For better water management, 40% of total water availability is required for storage. Pakistan s storage capacity is only about 7% of total available water. 22

23 Flood Water Gone Uncaptured Flood of 2010 = 68 BCM Flood of 2011 = 15 BCM Flood of 2014 = 29 BCM Total = 112 BCM Price of water = US $ 46.0 Billion Equivalent to original live storage of 10 Tarbela dams. Total Hydropower potential = 30,478 MW Total Energy potential = 144 Twh Enhanced agricultural production. Enhanced storage capacity. Enhanced per capita storage volume. Enhanced ground recharge. Flood and drought mitigation/less damages. 23

24 Impact on food Security Carry over Capacity Egypt (Aswan) America Australia South Africa India Pakistan 1,000 days (Niles) 900 days (Colorado) 600 days 500 days (Orange River) 120 to 220 days <30 days 24

25 Per Capita Storage America Australia Pakistan 6,150 m 3 /person 5,000 m 3 /person 52 m 3 /person For arid country like Pakistan, storages are vitally important for water security, flood mitigation and drought proofing 25

26 DAMS IN OTHER COUNTRIES Country Dams (Nos.) Country Dams (Nos.) China* USA 9265 India** 5102 Japan 3116 Brazil 1392 Korea (Rep. of) 1305 Canada 1166 South Africa 1114 Spain 1082 Turkey 976 Iran 800 France 713 United Kingdom 607 Australia 507 Germany 308 * Total Dams in China = 86,000 ** India plans to construct additional 2,500 dams by 2050 to add 180 BCM of storage. *** Pakistan has only three major storage dams 26

27 Way Forward Pakistan has to improve its water governance and management. Capacities of institutions dealing with water need to be enhanced. Pakistan needs to have effective National Water Policy. Water saving and water conservation has to be strictly followed in all sub-sectors. Water use efficiency has to be introduced in the agriculture sector with enunciated objective of reducing water used in agriculture by 20%. Dry and salt tolerant variety of crops have to be introduced. 27

28 Way Forward P/2 Introduce principles of 3 R s i.e. Reduce Recycle Reuse. Rain water harvesting and facilities for ground water recharge have to be introduced. Fresh water bodies and ground water have to be protected from pollution principle of User pays and Polluter pays more has to be adopted. Cheap solar technologies have to be introduced for desalinization of saline water. Storages need to be added to mitigate floods and droughts and to combat climate change impacts. Ground Water governance has to be improved to balance extraction against recharge. 28

29 Closing Messages Water is a strategic asset for defence and development Water is an extremely destructive weapon. Water security is a National security. Water should be considered as hard component of National Foreign Policy. Water belongs to the next generations. We have to leave behind clean and adequate water regime for them. 29

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