SDG and Trade-offs: A Role for Integrated Systems (ΔDIEM)

Transcription

1 SDG and Trade-offs: A Role for Integrated Systems (ΔDIEM) C. Hutton 1, A.N. Lázár 1, J. Nicholls 1, M. Salehin 2, M. Schaafsma 1 & Alex Chapman 1 1 University of Southampton, United Kingdom, ch9@soton.ac.uk 2 Bangladesh University of Engineering & Technology, Bangladesh ESPA Impact: Espa Deltas, 12 February March 2018 Bangladesh Planning Commission, Dhaka

2 ESPA Deltas: Aim: To provide policy makers with the knowledge and tools to enable them to evaluate the effects of policy decisions on ecosystem services and people's livelihoods Vision: Link science to policy at the landscape scale Engagement: With national level policy processes (Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100) that impact at a community level Produced: Delta Dynamic Integrated Emulator Model (ΔDIEM) linking ecosystem services to livelihoods and interventions ESPA Impact: Espa Deltas, 12 February March 2018 Bangladesh Planning Commission, Dhaka

3 The Consortium 21 partners and about 100 members from a range of disciplines UK (7 partners) University of Southampton- Lead Robert Nicholls PI University of Oxford Exeter University Dundee University Hadley Centre MET office Plymouth Marine Laboratories National Oceanography Centre Liverpool Bangladesh (12 partners) Institute of Water and Flood Management, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET) Prof Rahman Lead PI Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS) Institute of Livelihood Studies (ILS) Ashroy Foundation Institute of International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh (ICDDR,B) Center for Environmental and Geographic Information Services (CEGIS) Bangladesh Agricultural University Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute (BARI) Technological Assistance for Rural Advancement (TARA) International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) University of Dhaka Water Resources Planning Organization (WARPO) India (2 partners) Jadavpur University: Indian Lead IIT Kanpur 3

4 Stakeholder Engagement Workshop at General Economic Division, Dhaka 16 September

5 Study Area: Land Use Composite ESPA Deltas Project Analysis

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7 Model Inputs Climate -precipitation -temperature -evaporation Hazards -cyclone -storm surge Demography -life expectancy -fertility rate -migration rate Hydrology -discharge -sediment Levees/Polders -location -height -drainage rate Economy -market price -cost of farm inputs -wages Bay of Bengal -mean sea level -(subsidence) Ecosystem Services -agriculture -aquaculture -fisheries -mangroves Governance -subsidies -land use planning -infrastructure planning

8 Outputs Household Wellbeing, Poverty & Health Coastal hydrology water elevation inundated area Salinisation river salinity groundwater salinity union-wise soil salinity crop productivity Livelihoods fish catches net earnings from - farming, - aquaculture & - fishing I. Household outputs: a) Bayesian statistical module: asset-based relative poverty indicator b) Process-based module: economics (income, costs/expenses, savings/assets) relative wealth-level calories / protein intake / BMI monetary poverty indicators II. Regional economic outputs sectoral output (tons, BDT) GINI GDP/capita income tax revenue household debt level

9 Trade-off

10 Trade Off

11 SRES A1B (RCP4.5/6-8.5) by 2050 Plausible futures Development Scenarios Less Sustainable (LS) Business As Usual (BAU) More Sustainable (MS) warmer (Q8) moderately warmer & wetter (Q0) warmer & wetter (Q16)

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14 Migration decisions ecosystem services

15 Service sector Poor Migration ES Safety net Poor Ecosystem services are critical for income and well-being of poor people; Diverse livelihoods are associated with lower levels of poverty Those without ES are those most likely to be both materially poor and experience low satisfaction with life. ES as a safety net for the poorest; rely on open access resources because of having no access to land or stable off-farm income sources. The richest people can leverage land resources and enhance well-being by diversifying livelihoods (to access education and thus service-based jobs, or high-end off-farm or agricultural business opportunities)

16 Take home message All interventions will have a trade off between the SDGs SDGs should not be used in isolation Economic growth is often associated with growth in inequality how to compensate? Integrated Assessment models are a valuable tool to address complex socio-ecological interactions and trade off

17 Thank You