Impact of Livestock on the Environment. An Overview Cledwyn Thomas Animal Change/ EAAP

Transcription

1 Impact of Livestock on the Environment An Overview Cledwyn Thomas Animal Change/ EAAP

2 Aim Overview of the impacts that the livestock industry will have on the environment with focus on climate change impacts The role of livestock systems in sustainable agriculture The meat and livestock industry and climate change The contribution of the meat and livestock industry to greenhouse gas mitigation (i.e. emissions reduction) Supply and demand side perspectives

3 Livestock in Society Land Use Biodiversity Rural employment Food security Draught power Micronutrient supply Animal agriculture Transport By-products - abattoir Food reserve Bank Biogas Manure nutrients

4 Projected trends in meat consumption (Steinfeld, 2006: FAO,2006) Per cap (kg) Developing Total (Mt) Developed

5 Environmental Impact Resource use Habitats/ Lanscape Pollution GHG

6 Resource use for livestock Livestock consume 33% of cereals produced *Conflict with human food Energy Total efficiency Protein Total efficiency Milk Beef Pigs

7 Livestock consume 33% of cereals produced Energy Protein Total efficiency Human-edible efficiency 2 Total efficiency Human-edible efficiency 2 Milk Beef Pigs outputs of human-edible energy and protein divided by humanedible inputs. (Gill et al, 2010)

8 Environmental Impacts Grazing Positives Ecosystem and Landscape Maintenance Pigs Soil fertilization

9 Environmental Impacts Intensification Grazing Positives Ecosystem and Landscape Maintenance Negatives Destruction of natural habitats/ overgrazing Pigs Soil fertilization Habitat Destruction Pollution

10 Environmental Impacts Intensification Grazing Positives Ecosystem and Landscape Maintenance Negatives Destruction of natural habitats/ overgrazing Pigs Soil fertilization Habitat Destruction Pollution Negatives overcome through Technology/Management

11 Landscape/ Ecosystems

12 Water Use in Agriculture But in beef only 0.1% is used directly, rest water use by crops/ grassland

13 Greenhouse gas (GHG) and livestock Fundamentally different from diffuse and particulate pollution, etc Impact is GLOBAL

14 IPCC, 2014 What are GHGs Greenhouse gases are those gaseous constituents of the atmosphere, both natural and anthropogenic, that absorb and emit radiation at specific wavelengths within the spectrum of terrestrial radiation emitted by the earth s surface, the atmosphere itself, and by clouds. This property causes the greenhouse effect. Water vapour (H 2 O), carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), nitrous oxide (N 2 O), methane (CH 4 ) and ozone (O 3 ) are the primary GHGs in the earth s atmosphere.

15 Global GHG emissions IPCC 2014

16 GHG from AFOLU IPCC 2014

17 Where are we going? Increased global population More demand on primary crops for humans More demand for animal products More demand on productive land area Move ruminant production to less productive land May result in increased GHG production for ruminant products

18 Demand on land increasing Food Fuel Land Use Feed Fibre New knowledge-based farming systems profitable at farm level, produce competitive products, environmentally sustainable and energy efficient (SCAR, 2008)

19 Greenhouse gas and agriculture Livestock sector emits 4.1 and 7.1 billion tonnes of (CO 2 e) each year 18% now down to 14% average Contributes 37% of CH 4 emissions 65% of N 2 O emissions Figures challenged (some higher, some lower) (Steinfeld et al. 2006)

20 GHG emissions Product kg CO 2 e/kg product Beef Sheep 17.4 Pig 6.35 Poultry 4.57 Milk 1.32

21 Units! CO 2 equivalents Per animal Per hectare Per kg of product Per kg of product content (protein, fat, energy)

22 Major sources of livestock related greenhouse gas emissions Enteric fermenation and respiration Animal manure Livestock related land-use changes Desertication Cutivated soils-livestock related Feed production On-farm fossil fuel use Postharvest emissions

23 GHG emissions from livestock production in EU-27

24 Key components of the GHG footprint of N Z exported lamb (Ledgard et al., 2010) On-farm Transport Processing Consumption 3% Processing, 12% Consumption

25 Retail to Consumption??? Food Waste

26 Inventories and Uncertainties Most developing countries do not (need to) undertake inventories Commonly used Tier 1 inventories used fixed factors Estimates have high errors (next slide) LCA many ++++ but need standard methodology (currently 16 methods)

27 UK error estimates for GHG emissions (Mt CO 2 e) Gas Source 2007 Total Error (95% Confidence interval) N 2 O +CH 4 Manure 4,500 ±30% CH 4 rumen fermentation 15,400 ±20%

28 GHG -What will we do about it? Do nothing (most Govt have decided this is not an option) Assess impact and Adapt to change (more extreme events, disease) Mitigate (i.e. reduce emissions)

29 Improved fertility Improved health Improved genetics Decreased No. of animals required per kg product Routes for impact of management and technology interventions designed to improve productivity on GHG emissions from livestock (Gill et al. 2009) Decreased CH 4 emissions per animal More energy dense feed Increased CO 2 emissions per kg feed N 2 O emissions depend on Nos. of animals, feed manure management, soil and weather CO 2 emissions from land use change associated with livestock depend on energy density of feed, carbon content of soil, management practices, weather

30 A marginal abatement cost schedule

31 Mitigation Seek win win strategies (greatest reduction for least cost) Some key strategies are limited by current bans (ionophores, growth promoters, GM) Some key conflicts (higher performance needs to be supported by higher density diets and hence conflict with human needs) Key Unknown - Soil C sequestration offset up to 4%?? of the global GHG emissions

32 Government Actions Voluntary Codes Command and Control (public health, Env Protection, animal disease) Market based Instruments Pollution tax Cap, Permit and Trade What will happen? - voluntary codes and retailer pressure but longer run C,P and T?

33 Consumption / Demand Product labelling, specifically Carbon Labelling from LCA (methodology!) Impact on meat exporters NZ LCA +ve Shift from GHG production to GHG consumption Consumer Behaviour Future prices as competition between Feed, Food and biogas

34 Issues lifecycle Level of public attention Reïncarnation Regulation/ Certification Traditional pattern Legislation or selfregulation Public action and pressure on legislators Public indignation and mobilisation Issue fatigue Societal concerns Media attention Uneasiness with opinion leaders Managed pattern Calm environment Initiation Growth Development Mature Post mature Backus, 2010

35 Issues lifecycle Level of public attention Reïncarnation Regulation/ Certification Public action and pressure on legislators Traditional pattern Livestock and Environment Legislation or selfregulation Public indignation and mobilisation Issue fatigue Societal concerns Media attention Uneasiness with opinion leaders Managed pattern Calm environment Initiation Growth Development Mature Post mature

36 Issues lifecycle Level of public attention Reïncarnation Regulation/ Certification Traditional pattern Legislation or selfregulation Public action and pressure on legislators Public indignation and mobilisation Issue fatigue Societal concerns Media attention Uneasiness with opinion leaders New Emerging Issues Managed pattern Calm environment Initiation Growth Development Mature Post mature

37 Horizon Scan Water the major driver of future growth in livestock production Competition for food/ feed resources between Human needs Industry/ fuel Animals Environmental impact of intensive pig/ poultry in transition/ developing countries

38 Conclusions Emphasise meat systems can deliver +ve environment, ecosystem landscape benefits National Inventories extend to developing countries, better methodology to account for mitigation (also LCA methodology) Promote win- win mitigation and adaptation Promote evidence led policies and public debate to recognize the challenge and new technologies available

39 Thank you for listening

40 AnimalChange European Project n Godollo October 2014

41 BACKGROUND AND AIMS The demand for livestock products is growing and climate change threatens food security and rural livelihoods. Policies that are currently in place may prove insufficient. Livestock systems are a significant contributor to greenhouse gases (GHG) but there is much uncertainty. ANIMALCHANGE will for the first time provide a vision of the future of the livestock sector under climate change

42 Partners European Research Institutes/Universities 1 - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (France) 2 Aarhus University (Denmark) 3 - Irish Agriculture and Food Development Authority (Ireland) 4 - Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (Spain) 5 - Aberystwyth University - Institute of Biological, Environmental and Rural Sciences (United Kingdom) 6 - Stichting Dienst Landbouwkundig Onderzoek (The Netherlands) 7 - Institute of Botany and Ecophysiology, Szent Istvan University (Hungary) 8 - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement (France) 9 - Federal Department of Economic Affairs - Agroscope Swiss Federal Research Station (Switzerland) 10 - Scottish Agricultural College (United Kingdom) 11 - Commissariat à l'énergie Atomique (France) 12 - International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Austria) 13 - INRA Transfert (France) Animal production industries 14 - PROVIMI (The Netherlands) 15 - FertiPrado (Portugal) Institutions from ICPC countries and international organisations 16 - Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (Brazil) 17 - Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (Brazil) 18 - Institut National de Recherches Agronomiques de Tunisie (Tunisia) 19 - Institut Sénégalais de Recherches Agricoles (Senegal) 20 - University of Pretoria (South Africa) 21 - International Livestock Research Institute (Kenya) 22 - AgResearch New Zealand GHG Research Centre (New Zealand) 23 - European Federation of Animal Science (Italy) 24 - Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (Italy) 25 - European Commission - DG Joint Research Institute for Environment and Sustainability (Belgium)

43 Expected Outputs ANIMALCHANGE will provide a consistent suite of scenarios, models, assessments and policy support tools to: reduce uncertainties include climate variability as part of climate impact assessment - provide cutting edge technologies for mitigation and adaptation - assess economic and societal costs and opportunities - assess the vulnerability of livestock to climate change - provide direct support to establish policies for mitigation and adaptation to climate change for the livestock sector - reach out to stakeholders The results will be applicable to wide range of systems and various end users including farmers not only in Europe but also in Africa and Latin America.

44 Project Structure

45 Components CP 1 establishes the framework of the project by simulating business-as-usual trends in livestock systems assuming that no specific mitigation and adaptation measures are taken. CP2 identifies at the animal and field scale the most promising cutting-edge mitigation and adaptation options and assesses the interactions between these options.

46 CP 3 integrates mitigation and adaptation options at farm scale by providing dynamic farm scale models to analyse the sensitivity to climate change and to estimate the ecological and economic efficiency of various farm scale adaptation and mitigation measures.

47 Components CP 4 develops regional and global frameworks for the formulation and analysis of policy options through an iterative process whereby the results from quantitative analyses will be discussed with policy makers and the outcomes fed back into the analytical models.

48 Components CP5 supports the data infrastructure of the project and develops statistical methods for uncertainty analysis and stochastic analysis of climate change vulnerability. CP6 will disseminate project output

49 Dissemination Using a knowledge interaction process with key stakeholders to ensure that the outputs from the project will be transferred effectively and be relevant to their needs Participative approach Stakeholder Panel Annual workshops/symposia Livestock, Climate Change and Food Security, Madrid, May 19 and 20, 2014

50 Dissemination Elearning and face to face training (GRA link) Other Regional Workshops (link with GRA) Budapest, October 2014 Senegal, January 2015 Kenya, February 2015 Brazil, February 2015 Support for young scientists to attend

51 Dissemination Research Research Scientists Project Outputs (Reports, Models) OUTCOMES (Env. Benefit, Competitive Industry, Policy support)

52 Effective Dissemination Research Research Scientists Stakeholders Project Outputs (Reports, Models, DSS) RELEVANT OUTCOMES (Env. Benefit, Competitive Industry, Policy support) Financial Incentives Legal Framework Support and Capabilities = Impact

53

54 Production of livestock products by region (adapted from FAO, 2009) Region/Country Group/Country Meat (Mt) Developed Countries Developing Countries

55 Systems of Production Grazing Rainfed mixed Irrigated mixed Industrial Total Production (m t) Beef Mutton Pork Grazing systems 26% of ice free land mass

56 The relationship between live weight gain (LWG) of cattle and methane production per kg of gain (Kurihara et al 1997, Klieve. and Ouwerkerk 2007, Howden and Reyenga 1999)

57 Environmental Impacts Extensive grazing Positives Ecosystem and Landscape Maintenance Negatives Expansion into natural habitats/ overgrazing Intensive Pigs Soil fertilization Habitat Destruction Pollution Pasture systems at capacity Intensification