Global Trends and the Future

Transcription

1 Global Trends and the Future Peter Engelke Senior Fellow, Strategic Foresight Initiative Prospecta Peru October

2 Global Megatrends: Key Tectonic Shifts Demographic Shifts Wider Access to Increasingly Disruptive Technologies Rapid and Massive Urbanization Food and Water Pressures Transforming Energy Landscape Diffusion of Power among States and to Non-State Actors 2

3 Demography Megatrend: Asymmetric Growth UN Population Projections, By Continent By mid-century Bulk in Asia and Africa Fastest growth in Africa Aging societies elsewhere Europe East Asia North America Latin America Source: Gerland et al. 2014, Fig. 1B 3

4 Demography Megatrend: Changing Global Middle Class Source: National Intelligence Council, Global Trends 2030, p. 9 4

5 Demography Megatrend: Individual Empowerment Expanding global middle class + Global poverty reduction + Increased education (& reduced gender gap) + Interpersonal communications (e.g., mobile, Internet) + Improved health = Individual Empowerment Increased ability of individuals to influence events directly & indirectly 5

6 Megatrend: Pace of Disruptive Technological Technology Change Technological Change is Speeding Up Disruptive convergence of tech breakthroughs + individual empowerment = Revolution in individuals abilities to create societal change 6

7 Disruptive Technology Example: Third Industrial Revolution Convergence of Several Broad Technologies: Nano, Bio, IT, Advanced Manufacturing, Artificial Intelligence, New Materials and Robotics Transforming the Way Goods Are Made Advanced, small-scale, real-time, precision manufacturing Possible effects: Locus of production will change. Anywhere on Earth? At smallest scales Commodity and natural resource flows will change Uncertain impact on jobs 7

8 Megatrend: Urbanization Global Urbanization in 1960 Global Urbanization in 2025 Source: United Nations, Source: United Nations, 8

9 Megatrend: Food & Water Projected Global Water Stress in 2030 Source: National Intelligence Council, Global Trends 2030, p

10 Megatrend: Global Diffusion of Power Within Interstate System Diffusion of Power From the North & West to the East & South BUT not straightforward = & From States to Non-States To Individuals ( Individual Empowerment ) To Groups & Organizations To other levels of government (cities, etc.) 10

11 Latin America in Global Context Demography Demographic window of opportunity between high growth and aging Individual empowerment Growing middle class (BUT inequality remains a major issue) Wider access to education ICT penetration is high and rising Urbanization Latin America is already highly urbanized Relative food, water, & energy abundance (compared with other regions) 11

12 Latin America in Global Context Diffusion of Power Interstate: Latin America has a relatively benign security environment relative to some other regions (interstate warfare & transnational terrorism) Attractive to investors & skilled labor * But crime and violence remains a big regional problem Deepening linkages to power centers in N. America, Europe, & East Asia Intrastate: Rising middle class can be expected to increase governance demands & expectations 12

13 Latin America: Growth but not convergence Kohli, Loser, and Sood (Eds.), Latin America in 2040, p. 4 13

14 Dangers of the Commodity Cycle I MGI Commodity Price Index ( = 100) Source: McKinsey Global Institute, Resource Revolution, p

15 Dangers of the Commodity Cycle II Source: Financial Times, 15

16 Possibilities I: Urban Latin America Source: McKinsey Global Institute, Building Competitive Cities, pp. 1, 7 16

17 Possibilities II: Human Capital Peru, 2010 Education Level None/Incomplete Through primary Through secondary Through tertiary Peru, 2030 Source: International Futures model. 17

18 Possibilities II: Human Capital South Africa in 2030 Education Level None/Incomplete Through primary Through secondary South Korea in 2030 Through tertiary Source: International Futures model. 18

19 Thank You 19