Economic Growth How it works and how it transformed the world

Transcription

1 Economic Growth How it works and how it transformed the world Edward A. Hudson VERNON PRESS

2 Contents Chapter 1 Introduction If there had beert no growth What is economic growth? Measuring growth A history of income A broad history of economic growth The growth leaders Growth rates The conventional theory of growth Ourobjective 32 Chapter 2 The world before economic growth The Roman Empire Course of the Empire Innovation« Production Economic growth The Renaissance The Italian states Venice The Black Death The Renaissance Economic Performance The Spanish Empire Course of the Empire Economic Performance 47

3 2.3.3 Reasons for this Performance The Netherlands Growth of trade Economic Performance Imperial China Expansion How was the expansion used? Other countries Whyno growth? 59 Chapter 3 The Start of growth - Britain A succession of changes British agriculture The Agricultural Revolution Climate Land Mechanization Crop rotation Selective breeding Agricultural Output Advances in technology Agriculture and growth The cotton industry The starting point Cotton production Market growth Technological change Nature of the Innovation process Productivity in the cotton industry The woolen industry Slow growth 91

4 3.4.2 Innovation in the woolen industry The nature of growth in the woolen industry The steam engine Steam technology The nature of Innovation Steam power and economic growth Coal Growth of the coal industry Markets for coal Productivity in coal production The role of coal in Britain's growth Iron and steel Formsofiron Production technologies Nature of technical change in iron and steel Growth in iron and steel production Iron and steel and economic growth Railways Development of railways The market for railway services Isambard Kingdom Brunei Railways and economic growth Shipping Technical change in shipping The market for shipping Shipping and the economy Economic growth in Britain Sustained growth When did growth start? Getting ready The breakthrough 140

5 Growth consolidates Innovation Accounting for growth Creating the conditions for growth Analytical features 159 Chapter 4 The leader - United States The new leader Agriculture Importance Development of agriculture Capital Biology Chemicals Chickens How did agriculture grow? Agriculture in economic growth Electricity Electricity supply Generation productivity Demand for electricity Electricity and economic growth Telecommunications Development The market for telecommunications Telecommunications and economic growth Motor vehicles The producers Development of the market Productivity growth in automobiles Motor vehicles and the economy 206

6 4.6 Aircraft Development of the technology Aircraft productivity Aircraft and the economy Transportation Waterborne freight Growth of railroads Railroads and the economy Trucking Passenger transportation Airlines Transportation and the economy Consumer appliances Major appliances Smaller appliances Appliances and the economy Steel The market for steel Steel-making technology Contribution to economic growth Petroleum A visible industry Growth of the industry Petroleum and economic growth Chemicals Development Demand for chemicals Chemicals and economic growth Retailing The development of retailing Contribution of retailing to economic growth 245

7 4.13 Advertising Marketing Marketing and economic growth Entertainment Growth of entertainment Entertainment and economic growth Finance Size Residential Investment Consumer durables Business Investment Investment and economic growth Information technology Development Demand for Computers Productivity Extent of Information technology Computers and economic growth Computers in the growth process Healthcare Demand for health care Productivity in health care Health care and economic growth Economic growth in the United States Economic growth The Start of growth Accounting for growth Industry growth The growth sequence The keys to economic growth 290

8 Chapter 5 Other countries, other systems Maintaining growth The early leaders Growth in the 20 th Century The growth implications Coat-tail growth Communism Communist government Government control of the economy Empire Pastempires The course of empires Inefficiency and efficiency Japan The growth record Manufactures and exports The growth process Republic of Korea The growth record Manufactures and exports Growth strategy China Early China Government policies Growth in China Catch-up growth 318 Chapter 6 Effects of economic growth Population The Malthusian trap 321

9 6.1.2 Population Children Health Higher incomes In Britain Growth Household income Household spending Food Housing Investment by households Government activity Income distribution Education Betöre growth Provision of education Content Inputs Outputs The principles Benefits from education Time Hours worked Retirement Leisure Choices open to women Creating time Mobility Industrialization Transport has become cheaper 372 (5.5.3 International trade 372

10 6.5.4 Cars The shape of eitles Travel Movirtg Information Shrinking the world Urbanization Rural starting point Economic development Growth of the cities General trend to urbanization Natural Resources Coal Aluminum Oil The Limits to Growth Resources and growth Local environmental effects The problem U.S. CleanAir Act Air quality improvement Effective environmental management Other environmental effects Economic effects Broad environmental effects The commons and externalities Atlantic cod New Zealand fisheries management Greenhouse gasses and climate change Ozoneholes The problem Super-national environmental effects of growth 420

11 6.10 Well-being Does economic growth help? Surveys of well-being The OECD better life approach Economic growth is good 424 Chapter 7 Past theories of economic growth Adam Smith David Ricardo Karl Marx John Maynard Keynes Milton Friedman Wassily Leontief Simon Kuznets Walt Rostow Modern growth theory Frank Ramsey The stylized facts The Solow Growth Model Extensions to the Solow approach Assessment of Solow-type models Growth accounting Growth accounting John Kendrick Dale Jorgenson Assessment of growth accounting Economic theory in the world 468 Chapter 8 The mechanics of growth 8.1 Breaking through constraints

12 8.2 Industry growth Different types of industry growth The growth path for leading industries The logistic model Creating industry growth The consumer society Example - automobiles Sequence of leaders Sustaining the leading Industries Capital Process innovation Productivity in industry growth What drives innovation Some innovation leaders Innovation Hall of Farne Demand and supply Creative destruction? The mechanics of growth 520 Chapter 9 Extending the theory of economic growth Three types of growth Overview of the theory Pre-conditions for growth Growth in potential Output Increasing productivity Growth in total spending Growth Industries Mainstream Industries 535

13 9.9 Declining Industries The vital sequence Micro foundations to growth Resource mobility Growth accounting Changing structure Incomes The role of government Stability Relationship to existing theory 552 Chapter 10 Conclusions What, when, where, how and why Freedom A good thing Can economic growth continue? Risks to economic growth Various risks Attitudes Business The environment Government Overview of the risks Will economic growth continue? 575

14 Appendix 1 Units ofmeasurement 577 Appendix 2 The United Kingdom 579 Appendix 3 Sources of data 581 References 583 Index 601