Targeting premium opportunities. Adam Cheetham Global Market Analyst - Industry Insights & Market Intelligence

Transcription

1 Targeting premium opportunities Adam Cheetham Global Market Analyst - Industry Insights & Market Intelligence

2 Demand for red meat Beef consumption Sheepmeat consumption

3 Demand for red meat 5% 4% Beef and veal Sheepmeat Forecast 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% Global consumption is forecast to continue to grow Source: OECD- FAO

4 Beef consumption World beef consumption Australia s growing diversification Million tonnes cwe e 2022f 2027f In 1994, top two markets accounted for 78% of exports Asia Europe North America Latin America MENA In 2017, top two accounted for 54% Almost all regions are expecting some level of growth with continued diversification for Australia Source: OECD-FAO, GIRA

5 million tonnes cwe Sheepmeat consumption World sheepmeat consumption Developed >60% of consumption growth from Asia Developing Forecast Asia Middle East Australia s growing markets (Share of Australian sheepmeat exports) % 41% 19% 27% e 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f 2023f 2024f 2025f 2026f 2027f North America 11% 20% Sheepmeat consumption growth is expected from developing markets Source: OECD-FAO

6 Global red meat consumption is forecast to grow in a changing marketplace

7 Australia Snapshot Global Competition Importance of Premium

8 Beef: Snapshot Global production (62.9 million tonnes cwt) Exports (10.9 million tonnes cwt) Other US Other US Mexico 3% Brazil Mexico 14% Brazil Argentina India China China EU Argentina India EU Australia is a small producer that plays a big role in global exports

9 Beef: Global Competition Annual changes in production 000 tonnes 1, ,000 US Brazil India Forecast e 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f Beef production is forecast to increase for all major competing beef exporters

10 Beef: Premium Supplier Importer share and value in China Vol Share % Average value A$/kg Australia NZ Brazil Argentina Uruguay China imports commodity and premium beef, making it a good example of the consumer differences 3

11 The focus for beef is on premium growth opportunities

12 Leading exporter Supply shift Increase consumer awareness

13 Sheepmeat: Australia s place in the world Australian Share of World Exports (Volume) 40% 38% 36% 34% 32% 30% 28% 26% 24% 22% 20% * Australia has established itself as a leading exporter of sheepmeat over the last 15 years *2018 YTD (Jan-Sept) Source: OECD-FAO, DAWR

14 Lamb supply equation has changed Slaughter versus Price Rolling Avg Monthly Slaughter 2,100,000 2,000,000 1,900,000 1,800,000 1,700,000 1,600,000 1,500,000 Lamb Slaughter Trade Lamb Price Rolling Avg Trade Lamb Price 1,400, ,300,000 Jan-01 Aug-01 Mar-02 Oct-02 May-03 Dec-03 Jul-04 Feb-05 Sep-05 Apr-06 Nov-06 Jun-07 Jan-08 Aug-08 Mar-09 Oct-09 May-10 Dec-10 Jul-11 Feb-12 Sep-12 Apr-13 Nov-13 Jun-14 Jan-15 Aug-15 Mar-16 Oct-16 May-17 Dec-17 Jul-18 0 Will demand continue to outstrip supply? Source: ABS, MLA

15 Sheepmeat: consumer awareness 1. Awareness 2. Education 3. Competition Korea Japan US 18 China KSA Australia 0 88 Don't know how to cook 1. % of consumers who bought lamb (source: MLA Global Consumer Tracker Reasons why not buy lamb global average (source: MLA Global Consumer Tracker 2018) 3. Sheepmeat exports by country (source: ABS, StatsNZ, GIRA, ADHB Beef & Lamb) Not familiar Don't buy but eat out Not available

16 The focus for sheepmeat will be on building awareness, education and differentiation

17 Global markets opportunities & challenges 1.1. Global red meat consumption is forecast to grow in a changing marketplace 2.2. The focus for beef is on the premium opportunities for growth 3.3. Sheepmeat momentum will focus on awareness, education and differentiation Targeting Premium Opportunities