ECON 3630: Economic Issues of the Middle East and North Africa Spring 2018

Transcription

1 ECON 3630: Economic Issues of the Middle East and North Africa Spring 2018 Monday, Wednesday: 2-3:15 Monroe 130 Julia C. Devlin, PhD Office hours: Wednesday 3:30-4:30 and by appointment, Monroe 219 Course Description This course surveys issues related to the economic development of the Middle East/North Africa region (MENA) with an emphasis on theory and practice. Topics covered include growth strategies since 1960 and specific development challenges, including (i) the role of OPEC and managing oil price volatility; (ii) water scarcity; (iii) poverty and inequality; (iv) youth unemployment and labor market rigidities; (v) global and regional integration; (vi) private and financial sector development, among others. Course Requirements and Grade Determination 25% Class presentation 25% Country analysis and investment proposal 25% Midterm 25% Final exam Class presentation Students will prepare a 10 minute PowerPoint presentation on a specific development issue, drawing on the assigned readings. A two page summary and the presentation are to be submitted the day before the presentation. Country analysis and investment proposal Students will prepare a country analysis and design a project to enhance growth in a MENA country. Requirements include preparation of a five to eight page country analysis, a one to two page executive summary of a project concept, participation in a development project competition and a five page full project description submitted after the competition. Class lectures and templates will help guide the structure of the analysis and written submissions. The grade for this component will be based on the country analysis (50%) and project proposal (50%). Required and Recommended Texts: Cammett, M and I. Diwan, Richards, A. and J. Waterbury (CDRW) (2015) A Political Economy of the Middle East, Fourth Edition. Westview Press. (Required) Devlin, J. (2010) Challenges of Economic Development in the Middle East and North Africa. World Scientific Press. (on reserve) (Recommended) 1

2 Additional Readings: Readings published by the World Bank can be found under research at and on the International Monetary Fund (IMF) website at All other articles listed are available online. Laptops, etc Laptops are permitted on a provisional basis but audio and video recordings of class lectures are not allowed. Tentative Schedule: 1/17 Introduction 1/22 Growth performance /24 Growth performance 1985-present 1/29 Country analysis 1/31 OPEC and the oil market 2/5 Oil, macroeconomic policy and growth 2/7 Water scarcity 2/12 Agriculture and food security 2/14 Environment and climate change 2/19 Population and youth 2/21 Midterm 2/26 Project analysis 2/28 Midterm review, Country analysis due 3/12 Gender 3/14 Unemployment and labor markets 3/19 Education and health 3/21 Poverty and social welfare 3/26 Energy and infrastructure 3/28 Trade and regional integration 4/2 Industrial policy and export promotion, Project executive summary due 4/4 Private sector development 4/9 Financial sector development 4/11 Governance and institutions 4/16 Development project competition trial run 4/18 Development project competition 4/23 Urbanization 4/25 Conflict, Project concept document due 4/30 Final exam Introduction CDRW (1,2) IMF (2017) The Middle East In Flux. Finance and Development (December) 2

3 Growth performance, CDRW (3,7) Sala-i-Martin, X and E. Artadi (2002) Economic Growth and Investment in the Arab World. Columbia University Department of Economics Discussion Paper World Bank (1978) Arab Republic of Egypt Economic Management in a Period of Transition. Growth performance, 1985-present CDRW (8) Mitra, P. et al. (2016) Avoiding the New Mediocre: Raising Long-Term Growth in the Middle East and Central Asia. International Monetary Fund World Bank (2008) Arab Republic of Egypt Development Policy Review. OPEC and the oil market CDRW (13) pp Adelman, M. (2002) World Oil Production and Prices Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 42 Baffes, J. et al (2015) The Great Plunge in Oil Prices: Causes, Consequences and Policy Responses. World Bank Policy Research Note Fattouh, B and L. Mahadeva (2013) OPEC: What Difference Has it Made? Oxford Institute for Energy Studies International Energy Agency (2005) World Energy Outlook: Middle East and North Africa. Chapter 4 Class Presentation Topic: Discuss the influence of MENA oil exporters on oil prices. Oil, macroeconomic policy and growth CDRW (9) Hakimian, H. (2008) Institutional Change, Policy Challenges and Macroeconomic Performance: Case Study of the Islamic Republic of Iran, ( ). Commission on Growth and Development IMF (2017) Saudi Arabia: Selected Issues IMF (2015) Iran: Selected Issues McKinsey Global Institute (2015) Saudi Arabia Beyond Oil: The Investment and Productivity Transformation. Class Presentation Topic: Discuss the role of oil in development and macroeconomic policy in Saudi Arabia and Iran. Water scarcity Becker N. and F. Ward (2014) Adaptive Water Management in Israel: Structure and Policy Options. International Journal of Water Resources Development Marin, P., et al (2017) Water Management in Israel: Key Innovations and Lessons Learned for Water-Scarce Countries. World Bank Technical Paper World Bank (2018) Beyond Scarcity: Water Security in the Middle East and North Africa Region. 3

4 World Bank (2007) Making the Most of Scarcity: Accountability for Better Water Management in the Middle East and North Africa. Class Presentation Topic: Discuss water management and pricing policies in Israel. Agriculture and food security CDRW (6) Burrell, A. and M. Kurzweil (2008) in K. Anderson and J. Swinnen, Eds., Agricultural Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in Europe s Transition Economies. World Bank, pp Diakosavvas, D. (2011) Evaluation of Agricultural Policy Reforms in Turkey. OECD Lampietti, J. et al (2009) Improving Food Security in Arab Countries. World Bank Larson, D. et al (2014) Agricultural Policies and Trade Paths in Turkey. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No Class Presentation Topic: Discuss agricultural policy and reforms in Turkey. Environment and climate change Croitoru, L and M. Sarraf, Eds. (2012) The Costs of Environmental Degradation in MENA: Case Studies. Verner, D and C. Breisinger (2013) Economics of Climate Change in the Arab World: Case Studies from the Syrian Arab Republic, Tunisia and the Republic of Yemen. World Bank Verner, D., et al (2013) Increasing Resilience to Climate Change in the Agricultural Sector in the Middle East: The Cases of Jordan and Lebanon. World Bank World Bank (2015) Turn Down the Heat: Confronting the New Climate Normal., pp Class Presentation Topic: Discuss the potential effects of a changing climate in two MENA countries. Population and youth CDRW (4) Assaad, R. and F. R. Fahimi (2007) Youth in the Middle East and North Africa: Demographic Opportunity or Challenge? Population Reference Bureau. Greulich, A. et al. (2015) Fertility Transition in Turkey. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 7310 Rand Corporation (2014) Youth In Jordan: Transitions from Education to Employment. World Bank (2014) Tunisia: Breaking the Barriers to Youth Inclusion. Class Presentation Topic: Discuss economic challenges and opportunities facing youth in Tunisia and Jordan. Gender World Bank (2013) Jordan Country Gender Assessment. World Bank (2015) Morocco: Mind the Gap: Empowering Women For A More Open, Prosperous and Inclusive Society. World Bank (2013) Opening Doors: Gender Equality and Development. World Bank (2017) Progress Towards Gender Equality in the Middle East and North Africa Region. 4

5 Class Presentation Topic: Discuss the economic participation of women in MENA countries. Unemployment and labor markets Gatti, R., et al (2014) Striving for Better Jobs: The Challenge of Informality in the Middle East and North Africa. Gatti, R. et al (2013) Jobs for Shared Prosperity: Time for Action in the Middle East and North Africa. World Bank, Chapters 1,2,5,8. World Bank (2015) Labor Market Dynamics in Libya. World Bank (2013) Turkey: Managing Labor Markets Through The Economic Cycle. Class Presentation Topic: Discuss formal and informal labor market dynamics in MENA countries. Education and health Gatti, R. et al (2013) Jobs for Shared Prosperity: Time for Action in the Middle East and North Africa. World Bank Chapters 6,9 Iqbal, F. and Y. Kiendrebeogo (2014) Education Attainment in the Middle East and North Africa: Success at a Cost. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 7127 World Bank (2007) Iran Health Sector Review Main Report. World Bank (2007) Morocco Health Policy Note: Towards a More Equitable and Sustainable Healthcare System. Class Presentation Topic: Compare and contrast health sector reforms in Morocco and Iran. Poverty and social welfare Mansour W. (2012) The Patterns and Determinants of Household Welfare Growth in Jordan: World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 6249 Verme, P. (2016) Subsidy Reforms in the Middle and North Africa Region: A Review. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 7754 World Bank (2013) Inclusion and Resilience: The Way Forward for Social Safety Nets in the Middle East and North Africa. World Bank (2009) Jordan: Poverty Update: Main Report. Class Presentation Topic: Discuss poverty incidence and policy approaches in Jordan. Energy and infrastructure Agenor, P. et al (2005) Public Infrastructure and Private Investment in the Middle East and North Africa. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3661 Albino-War, M. et al (2014) Making the Most of Public Investment in MENA and CCA. International Monetary Fund Camos, D. R. Bacon, A. Estache and M. Hamid (2018) Shedding Light on Electricity Utilities in the Middle East and North Africa Region. World Bank World Bank et al (2016) Delivering Energy Efficiency in the Middle East and North Africa Region. Class Presentation Topic: Discuss the challenges and opportunities for energy sector reform in MENA countries. 5

6 Trade and regional integration CDRW (13) Chaffour, J. (2014) From Political to Economic Awakening in the Arab World: The Path of Economic Integration. World Bank Rouis, M. and S. Tabor (2013) Regional Economic Integration in the Middle East and North Africa: Beyond Trade Reform. World Bank Sabadie, J. (2010) Migration and Skills: The Experience of Migrant Workers From Albania, Egypt, Moldova and Tunisia. World Bank World Bank (2014) Over the Horizon: A New Levant. Class Presentation Topic: Discuss costs and benefits of regional integration in MENA countries. Industrial policy and export promotion African Development Bank (2012) Comparative Study on Export Policies in Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia and South Korea. Freund, C. and M. Jaud (2015) Champions Wanted: Promoting Exports in the Middle East and North Africa. World Bank Schiffbauer, M. et al (2015) Jobs or Privileges: Unleashing the Employment Potential Of the Middle East and North Africa. World Bank Chapter 3 World Bank (2014) Turkey: Trading Up To High Income. Country Economic Memorandum Class Presentation Topic: Discuss challenges and opportunities for export diversification in the MENA region. Private sector development EBRD (2016) What s Holding Back the Private Sector in MENA? Schiffbauer, M. et al (2015) Jobs or Privileges: Unleashing the Employment Potential Of the Middle East and North Africa. World Bank Ch. 1,2,4 OECD (2013) New Entrepreneurs and High Performance Enterprises in the Middle East and North Africa. Sekkat, K. (Ed.) (2010) Market Dynamics and Productivity in Developing Countries: Economic Reforms in the Middle East and North Africa. Springer Class Presentation Topic: Discuss market dynamics and firm behavior in the MENA region. Financial sector development Hussain, M. et al (2015) An Overview of Islamic Finance. IMF Working Paper WP/15/120 Rocha, R et al (2010) Financial Access and Stability: A Road Map for the Middle East and North Africa. World Bank World Bank (2014) Enhancing Financial Capability and Inclusion in Morocco. World Bank (2015) Financial Inclusion in Tunisia: Low Income Households and Microenterprises. Class Presentation Topic: Discuss challenges and opportunities of enhancing access to financial markets in Morocco and Tunisia. Governance and institutions CDRW (11,12) 6

7 University of Gothenburg (2017) Governance in Service Delivery in the Middle East and North Africa Region. Background paper for the World Bank World Bank (2003) Better Governance for Development in the Middle East and North Africa: Enhancing Inclusiveness and Accountability. World Bank (2016) Public Employment and Governance in the Middle East and North Africa World Bank (2015) Trust, Voice and Incentives: Learning from Local Success Stories in Services Delivery in the Middle East and North Africa. Class Presentation Topic: Discuss the role of governance and institutions in service delivery in MENA countries. Urbanization Ibarra, G. et al (2017) Rental Regulation and Its Consequences On Measures of Well-Being in The Arab Republic of Egypt. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 8152 World Bank (2015) Rise of the Anatolian Tigers: Turkey Urbanization Review. World Bank (2006) Egypt: Urban Sector Update. World Bank (2017) Urban Land Acquisition and Involuntary Resettlement: Linking Innovation and Local Benefits. Class Presentation Topic: Discuss the costs and benefits of urbanization in MENA countries. Conflict CDRW (13) World Bank (2017) The Toll of War: Economic and Social Impact Analysis of the Conflict in Syria. Rother, B. et al (2017) Economic Impact of Conflicts and the Refugee Crisis in the Middle East and North Africa. IMF Staff Discussion Note 16/08 World Bank (2011) Coping With Conflict? Poverty and Inclusion in the West Bank and Gaza. World Bank (2017) Yemen Policy Note. Class Presentation Topic: Discuss the effects of conflict on economic activity in Syria, the West Bank and Gaza and Yemen. 7