Research Needs for Modeling Soil C across Multiple Scales in Agricultural Lands

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1 Research Needs for Modeling Soil C across Multiple Scales in Agricultural Lands Stephen M. Ogle

2 Paustian et al. 2016, Nature

3 Scaling Measurements to Regional and National Scales US-EPA, National GHG Inventory Report, 2017

4 Developing the State of the Art Modeling Platforms Adapted from 2006 IPCC National GHG Inventory Guidelines

5 Experimental Data

6 Long-Term Agricultural Experiments

7 Model Development Microbial Efficiency Matrix Stabilization Model Cotrufo et al., 2013, Global Change Biology

8 Bayesian Parameterization Methods TECO Model P(p Z) P(Z p)p(p) Shi et al. 2016, Journal of Plant Ecology

9 Priority: Maintaining and Possibly Expanding Network of Long-Term Experiments! Cheng et al., 2014, Global Change Biology

10 Model Development RothC Model, Jenkinson et al. 1977

11 Empirical Models Mishra, SSSAJ, 2009

12 Process-Based Models Water Submodel Layer 1 Layer 2 Layer 3 Layer n Aboveground Secondary Production PPT PET Soil Surface Heat & Water Flux C N H 2 O C N f(temp) f(wfps) f(solar) SOM Submodel f(text) f(moist) f(temp) f(kp) Plant Production Submodel CO 2,Nmin Active SOM f(stormf, BASEf) EVI/PRDX C N NPP Biomass Residues f(lignin:n) CO 2, Nmin CO 2, Nmin Slow SOM N Mineral N f(c:n) CO 2,Nmin CO 2, Nmin CO 2 N Gases CO 2 Passive SOM CO 2,Nmin Dissolved Organic C, Dissolved Organic N, Mineral N DayCent Ecosystem Model Parton et al., 1998, Global and Planetary Change; Ogle et al., 2010, Global Change Biology; US-EPA, 2017, National GHG Inventory Report

13 Reducing Uncertainty with Higher Tier Methods SOC Stock Change (Tg CO 2 yr -1 ) Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Smith et al., Global Change Biology, 2012; US-EPA, National GHG Inventory, 2017

14 Priority: Advancing Model Frameworks! Lehmann and Kleber, 2015, Nature

15 Other Potential Model Developments

16 International Soil Carbon Network A Targeted, Collaborative Approach to Assessing Soil Organic Matter and Carbon Scientific framework Database platform raw datasets, synthesis products field- and lab-based data hypothesis testing Community modeling platform hypothesis testing model parameterization model intercomparison spatial and temporal scaling Experimental Application Metrics development platform soil health index soil carrying/storage capacity economic resource valuation ecosystem service valuation Action Group platform forests urban lands grazing lands croplands unmanaged post-disaster PEcAn Project Harden et al., 2017, Global Change Biology, In press

17 Evaluation Data

18 Model Development /Selection Model Testing/ Parameterization Identify Model Inputs Griffin Griffin Horseshoe Bend Kentucky Kentucky W. Lafayette S. Charleston Hoyteville Hoyteville Hoyteville Manhattan Wooster Wooster No-tillage Conventional tillage Wooster Wooster KBS Akron Sidney Database Management Run Control Structural Unc. Estimator PDF Evaluation of Model Results Simulation Model: Implement Simulations Assess Uncertainties Adapted from 2006 IPCC National GHG Inventory Guidelines

19 95 85 Bare-Summer Fallow No-Till Set-Aside Lands (CRP) Sqrt Measured Soil Organic C Stock (g/m2) Hay/Pasture in Annual Cropping Rotation Organic Amendments Hay/Pasture in Annual Cropping Rotation w/ Organic Amendments Other Cropping Practices Sqrt Modeled Soil Organic C Stock (g/m2) Ogle et al., Ecological Modelling, 2007

20 Priority: Develop Network of Evaluation Sites! Spencer et al., Greenhouse Gas Measurement and Management, 2011

21 Research Agenda Proposal

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