Grasslands & Livestock Wrap- Up. New- York, October 30, 2013

Transcription

1 Grasslands & Livestock Wrap- Up New- York, October 30, 2013

2 Grasslands and Livestock (iniaally cacle) Grasslands Sensi&vity Blind test Calibrated ProjecAons Livestock Sensi&vity Blind test Calibrated ProjecAons Coupling NEXT GENERATION IdenAfy models coupling grasslands & animal Indirect coupling DM, digesability

3 Next generaaon (2/2) Grasslands & livestock Climate proofed livestock models Climate proofed pasture models, including grazing management and GHG balance (CPPM..). Crops & feed e.g. crop residues Manure from crops Farm scale Integrated regional assessments, including economics and farm management => Organise a workshop in 2014 on integrated modeling of pasture intensifica&on

4 A. Grasslands Outline Group acaviaes and protocols on the way SensiAvity Benchmarking and intercomparison Near term improvement Model improvement ProjecAons and upscaling Next generaaon Grasslands- livestock Interfaces

5 SensiAvity: C3MP Grasslands Val Snow & Shaoxiu Ma to start a pilot

6 Model benchmark and intercomparison Blind tests of models by grassland cluster Spin- up runs (have several years of past weather) NarraAve on past management Then decide on further sensiavity tests Bootstrap parameters which are sensiave in order to test an ensemble of variants of a single model. Test performance of model ensemble vs. single model.

7 Model improvements Response of vegetaaon and soil to climate (T, P, CO 2 ) with focus on extreme events. Links with ecosystem manipulaaon experimental data will be organized to improve parametrisaaon. Herbage quality. Key variables (N content, digesability, NDF ) will be evaluated and discussed and improvements considered. Plant funcaonal types composiaon and dynamics. A review of the models will be organized and discussions iniaated.

8 ProjecAons and upscaling (in 2015) ProjecAons Start tesang site based projecaons (downscaled RCPs when available) from 2015 with model ensemble Upscaling Link to global scale and models: 3 DGVMs plus EPIC used in integrated models (eg GLOBIOM) EPIC, LPJml, ORCHIDEE are they outliers in the ensemble of pasture models? Organise the pasture intensificaaon workshop and develop versions for these global models Crowdsourcing of grassland producavity build on IIASA efforts for land use and WRI

9 Next generaaon components Grasslands- livestock interface (2015) Herbage quality; Manure returns to grazing lands Grasslands contribuaon to diets Model herd dynamics, communal land Integrated assessments. Output of the grassland models, coupled with management, integrate becer with other components, linkages with economics (how does it cost for a livestock product)

10 Timeline End Send model and site templates. Collect weather data. December Send the blind test input data. January Process the hypercube. Early Send the modified weather data to model groups. Deadline for model runs: end February March Benchmarking and intercomparison workshop. May- September Data analysis from blind test and from intercomparison. October. Prepare for annual assembly

11 B. Livestock Outline Group acaviaes and protocols on the way Dairy model intercomparison Near term improvement Improving intake and methane emissions Upscaling and interfaces

12 Group acaviaes and protocols on the way Dairy model intercomparison (10 models) Animal performance (milk yield predicaons) Feed intake Methane producaon Development of translators for exisang models Development of a protocol for tesang models (standard databases, etc)

13 Near term improvements Improvements of intake predicaon and methane producaon SensiAvity analyses to key parameters IntegraAon with pasture models (simple)

14 Next generaaon components Impacts of temperature on feed intake BeCer livestock, feed and manure management components Linkages to crop models

15 ContribuAons to regional/global scale acaviaes Regional Making livestock models available for crop- livestock systems analysis IntegraAon with regional grassland management acaviaes Improvement of the TOA- MD tool for crop- livestock systems trade- offs quesaons Global GeneraAon of global livestock datasets for global economic models Done for GLOBIOM, MagPIE, Image and working on IMPACT Gridded global miagaaon potenaals of livestock

16 Timeline for the coming year Finish the dairy comparison of animal performance and methane producaon Animal performance predicaon phase Dairy (by June 2014) Database 90% complete Comparisons under way Beef (by Dec 2014) Database 50% complete Models have been selected Animal methane emission predicaon phase Dairy (by June 2014) and Beef (?) Database being assembled Models have been selected

17 Thanks!