Daniel H. Putnam, Andre Biscaro, Steve Orloff, Craig Giannini, Chris DeBen, and Karen Klonsky

Transcription

1 Economic Returns Due to Alfalfa Cultivar Selection Over 30 of Testing in CA Environments Authors: Daniel H. Putnam, Andre Biscaro, Steve Orloff, Craig Giannini, Chris DeBen, and Karen Klonsky (UCCE/University it of California, i Davis, CA)

2 What is an alfalfa variety? A population of plants consisting of genetically diverse individuals that have been selected for improved traits: yield, fall dormancy, forage quality, persistence, disease and insect resistance; Considerable plant-to-plant variation, Multiple genotypes = Major asset = great adaptation

3 Percent Resistance Abbreviations resistance 1 HR Highly Resistant t >51% R Resistant 31-50% MR Moderate Resistant 15-30% LR Low Resistant 6-14% S Susceptible <5% T Tolerance -- 1 Percent of plants in a population resistant to a given pest

4 Locations used for the UC alfalfa cultivar testing program Sacramento Valley: FD: 4 8 Cuts: 5 7 Sites: Davis Elev.: 65 ft Coastal Valleys: FD: 4 8 Cuts: 5 7 Sites: Variable Elev.: ft Intermountain: FD: 2 4 Cuts: 3 4 Sites: Tulelake, Scott Valley. Elevation: 2,100 3, ft San Joaquin Valley: FD: 7 9 Cuts: 7 8 Sites: Parlier, Five Points Elev.: ft Total California Alfalfa Production (2007) 987,493 a( 399,632 ha) 7.1 t/a (15.9 Mg/ha) Value: $1.17 Billion Largest acreage crop in CA NASS data High Desert: FD: 5 8 Cuts: 6 7 Sites: Lancaster Elev.: 2,300 2,600 2 ft Low Desert: FD: 8 11 Cuts: 7 11 Sites: El Centro, Blythe Elev.: minus 260 ft

5 Total California Alfalfa Production - Approx. 930,000 acres t/a - Value: $1.17 Billion - Largest acreage crop in CA

6 Why look at variety trials? ASS,U,ME Scientific approach follows protocols; Decades of breeding for pest-resistant, high-yielding and high-quality alfalfa; Losses are seldom recognized; Primary step in IPM cost effective; Measure for dealing with insects and diseases. VARIETY SELECTION SETS THE UPPER LIMIT OF YIELD & PERFORMANCE

7 However Some growers still don t take sufficient time to compare varieties And simply favor inexpensive seed

8 Economic Analysis Enables a more rational approach to the value of variety data to guide cultivar selection

9 Seed costs as a percentage of production Establishment costs seed 12% 4-Year production costs seed 2% Other Establish ment Costs 88% Other Productio n Costs 98%

10 Title (yield diff. * $150) $/acre Magna 801 FQ WL 530HQ HybriForce 800 8R100 PGI 608 Pacifico Integra 8800 Magna 788 Magna 995 Artesian Sunrise HybriForce 700 Sutter Cisco Economic Value Due only to Variety Choice (Single year 2009 Data, UC Davis) $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 DKA TruTest WL 440HQ 6R100 Difference due to added seed cost: ($3.00/lb) at 20 / Differential Economic Effectof Variety Choice: Assumptions: *Hay Price: 150$/ton *Response averaged over 1 year as per UC Davis 08-planted Fraction of a ton? Variety Trial. First full year of production.

11 Economic Value Due only to Variety Choice (Three Year - Fresno County West Side Data, ) $/acre WL 535HQ Desert Sun 8. 10RR Grandslam Pacifico AL 999 CW 1010 INTEGRA 8900 WL 660RR Dura 843 WL 625HQ 59N59 TriplePlay AmeriStand 855RR Revolution CW 909 CUF101 Magna801FQ LSD (P< 0.10) Impalo WF CW 801 RRALF 8R alfalfa WL 550RR DKA84-10RR Difference in Cost Highline INTEGRA 8801R Conquistador Sequoia INTEGRA 8800 DKA65-10RR Wildcard AmeriStand 815TRR RRALF 6R100 Integra 8400R due to a $3/lb INCREASE in seed cost ($60/acre) Differential Economic Effect of Variety Choice: Assumptions: *Hay Price: 150$/ton less additional seed costs. *Seeding Rate: 20 lbs/acre *Varieties perform as per Research Trial

12 THE VALUE OF IMPROVED VARIETIES ALMOST ALWAYS EXCEEDS DIFFERENCES IN SEED COSTS Economic consequences of choosing varieties High Yielding Variety (Seed A) Choice of Variety Medium Yielding Variety (Seed B) Low Yielding Variety (Seed C) Seed price ($/Lb) Potential yield (ton/a/yr) Seed cost ($/A) * Gross Returns 3yrs ($/A) 5,760 5,220 4,905 Net - Seed cost ($/A) 5,673 5,158 4,868 Seeding Rate (Lb/A) Difference in Return ($/A) vs. lower yielding variety** * Gross Returns = Potential yield (from variety trials) * $150 ** Assuming differences among A, B and C are only due to variety choice Hay price = $150

13 Yield difference (to on/a/yr) Yield difference required per year to justify an increase in seed price, amortized over 4 years Aditional price of seed ($/Lb) Yield Difference (to on/a/yr) Yield differences (top to bottom) between varieties - Five Points, CA Alfalfa Varieties

14 How much more would you pay to have a variety that produces an extra ton/a/yr? If a Seed A produces 1 ton/a/yr more than Seed B, then it would be feasible to pay up to $24/Lb more for Seed A; [1 ton = $150 = $600 (4 years): $600/25Lb = $24/Lb] *Seeding rate of 25Lb/A

15 What is the actual economic value of improved varieties? i Limitations: it ti it s difficult to measure directly! Transferability of Data - Degree to which yield performance in trials match farmer s fields Adaptation Rate - Extent to which farmers and seed companies choose varieties based upon this information Value of Yield vs. Other Traits - The relationship of yield to other valuable attributes (e.g. resistance to disease and insects, forage quality, persistence, salt tolerance, herbicide tolerance). Improved varieties may have other benefits besides simply yield Masking of Genetic Potential with other practices, such as suboptimum cutting schedules, pest management, fertility practices which limit the genetic advantages of better varieties

16 Total Annual Gross Economic Value and value potentially due to variety (X 1,000) $1,200,000 $1,065,214 $1,000,000 $800,000 $600,000 30%. $400,000 $319,081 $200,000 $ Due to Variety Due to Variety Total Value Total Value (Normalized to 2009 dollars, averaged over 30 years of California production)

17 Summation Data from Multiple Trials Table 2. Summary of Alfalfa Cultivar Trials conducted from 1974 through 2009 in the different production regions of California. Each N is the summation of a multi-year trial (for example, a 3-year trial, 35 varieties, 7 cuts/year at Davis). The average yield difference is the top-tobottom difference averaged across all the trials in a region. Most trials are conducted for 3 years. Statewide averages are weighted based upon percent acreage of regions. Average Yield Regional Potential Yield Number of Harvests Per Duration of Total Number Average Difference Due Contribution to CA Difference Due Region Trials year Testing of Harvests Trial Yield to Variety Production to Variety (N) Cuts Years (N) t/a t/a % % Intermountain 32 3 to % 23.9% Sacramento Valley 27 5 to % 28.4% San Joaquin Valley 25 7 to % 34.3% Coastal 4 4 to % 27.4% High Desert 4 6 to % 19.1% Low Desert 21 8 to % 21.0% Statewide to % 30.0%

18 Effect of Region on Economic Return Due to Variety Price: 150$/ton $/ac cre Figure 6 Regional differences due to variety These are the average top-to-bottom yield differences due to variety averaged across all UC Figure 6. Regional differences due to variety. These are the average top to bottom yield differences due to variety, averaged across all UC trials, over the past 30 years, multiplied by $150/ton. This represents 378 location/years of testing statewide.

19 Total value and the value potentially due to variety, over 30 years in California. i (X 1,000) $1,600,000 $1,400,000 $1,200,000 $1,000,000 $800,000 $600,000 $400,000 $200,000 $0 Value of California Alfalfa, Total Potential Value Due to Variety

20 CONCLUSIONS Potential yield increases due to variety choice are economically significant for farmers; This value easily exceeds differences in seed costs, especially over years;

21 CONCLUSIONS Avg. yield differences due to variety, as measured in 378 location/yrs in CA field trials was 2.7 ton/a/yr, y, or approx. 30% of the mean values; Yield differences due to variety were greater in some regions than others.

22 CONCLUSIONS

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26 Thank you for your attention! Questions/Comments?

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28 Assumptions for these Calculations: Potential yield differences are similar to those measured in 378 trial years of UC variety tests, as a percent of average value Economic value due to yield alone, not other genetic traits Does not consider yield effects on supplydemand curves, or the effects of forage quality on price and the yield-quality tradeoff This is a description of the maximum effects on economic returns due to variety.