NIGERIA Food Security Update May 2007

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1 In central and northern Nigeria, the season began with light to moderate rains in April and May, respectively. The relatively early rains in the north resulted in the start of planting in only a few isolated areas. To boost agricultural productivity this season, the federal government will double the amount of subsidized fertilizer (to 500,000 MT) it provided to farmers at in Providing farmers with adequate supplies of fertilizers and improved seeds in time for the planting season remains a challenge for the government and its partners. Some members of pastoral households began moving with their herds from southern Nigeria to the north in response to the early start of the rains. The progressive transhumance is expected to peak in June. The northward transhumance at this period of the year is a traditional phenomenon, but usually entails a deterioration of food and income sources for those who remain behind and can spark conflicts between farmers and pastoralists, leading to losses of animals, property and human life. Even with the lean season approaching, markets are well supplied, and prices of major food staples such as millet, sorghum, maize, rice, cowpea and cassava remain relatively stable and lower compared to last year at this time. Food prices are expected to increase as household stocks dwindle in the coming months. In May, the government increased fuel prices by 13 percent, which could contribute to an increase in food prices. Heavy rains in some parts of southern Nigeria could damage crops and trigger an increase in food prices as households turn to markets as an immediate response to crop damage. Heavy rains in the second dekad of May have elevated the flood risk in parts of the southeastern Nigeria. When heavy rains result in flooding, especially between July and September, it usually results in premature harvesting of roots and tubers, extensive loss of maturing crops and ultimately poor harvests for that year. The heavy rains that occurred in May will increase the risk of flooding later in the year if the trend of heavy downpours continues. Seasonal monitoring The start of season (SOS) as depicted in figure 1a shows when moisture conditions have become favorable for crop sowing in northern Nigeria. The SOS varies from the beginning of April in the central part of the country to the first dekad of May farther north. Comparison with respect to average (figure 1b) shows a generally early start of the season, by an average of 1 2 dekads, with few limited patches where the season was about 1 dekad late. Figure 1a. SOS at the second dekad of May Figure1b. SOS anomaly for the same period FEWS NET Nigeria 3 rd Floor, Metro Plaza, Central Area District, Abuja fewsnetnigeria@fews.net FEWS NET Washington 1717 H St NW Washington DC info@fews.net FEWS NET is a USAID funded activity. The authors views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government.

2 Moderate to heavy rain ( mm) fell over the country during the second dekad of May. The northern part of the country experienced light rains with a few moderate rains (10 25 mm) in some states. The southern regions of the country were soaked by moderate to heavy rains during the second dekad of May. Unseasonably heavy rainfall fell over the coastal areas of southern Nigeria; in these regions where annual rainfall usually exceeds 2,000 mm, the heavy rain recorded during the second dekad of May sustained moisture surpluses and triggered flooding in the region. The Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI) provides an indication of millet conditions and is depicted in figure 2a. Conditions are mostly very good over the area where the season has already started. Millet conditions are similar to the average conditions at this time (figure 2b), with a few pockets of above average conditions, and below average conditions over the northern reaches of the area where the season has already started. Figure 2a. Millet conditions as of the second dekad of May 2007 Figure 2b. WRSI anomaly for the same period Crop conditions based on the Water Requirements Satisfaction Index (WRSI) Planting Planting of major crops such as millet, maize, sorghum and cowpea commenced in May in a few areas of northern Nigeria. Planting will continue until June for maize and millet and July for cowpea and sorghum. As a result of the combined impacts of the low demand and low price of maize (due the impact of avian flu on the poultry industry, a major consumer of maize), many farmers in central and northern Nigeria may shift from maize production to higher Table 1. Planting period and estimated area covered Crops Planting period Estimated area covered in 2006 (ha) Maize May-June 3,162,000 Millet May-June 3,506,490 Sorghum May-July 3,203,431 Cowpea May-July 3,225,246 Rice May-July 2,495,092 Source: ADP Kaduna value crops, such as rice and sorghum. If this holds, the reduced maize production could help stabilize maize prices after the harvest, in August. Input subsidies Since 2002, the Federal government has been providing farmers with a 25 percent subsidy on the price of fertilizer. Each year, the government buys assorted fertilizers from the private sector. The subsidized input is distributed to farmers associations by state governments; these associations sell the fertilizer to registered members. As of the second dekad of May 2007, the federal government Table 2. Quantity of fertilizer made available to farmers Source Quantity ordered Quantity ordered in 2006 (MT) in 2007 (MT) Federal Government 250, ,000 State Government 250, ,000 Private Sector* 250, ,000 Total 750,000 1,000,000 * Estimated quantity made available to farmers by the private sector through the market system Source: FESPAN, Kaduna

3 had ordered 500,000 MT of fertilizer, twice the quantity ordered in The distribution is underway in few of the states; in most states, distribution will take place in July and August after most farmers have already sowed. This late distribution will have an adverse impact on productivity. Table 2 shows the total quantity of fertilizers made available to farmers by government and the private sector in 2006 and The price of fertilizer is relatively stable, but remains higher this year relative to same period last year (figure 3). However, in major northern states (Kano and Kaduna), fertilizer prices in May 2007 are slightly lower than in May In Makurdi (Benue state, in the middle belt), fertilizer prices are considerably higher compared to other zones. According to the Fertilizer Suppliers Association of Nigeria, the upward trend is related to high prices in the international markets. So far, the expansion of the subsidy program did not have a significant impact on fertilizer market prices both because demand still remains very high and because some of the subsidized fertilizer finds its way on to the markets. Figure 3. Retail prices of fertilizer (NPK: ) in some urban markets in Nigeria The price of subsidized fertilizer is 25 percent lower than the current market price, estimated at N3,000/bag of 50kg. In the states of Kaduna, Katsina, Zamfara and Sokoto, fertilizers are being supplied to farmers at the rate of about N35/kg. In the state of Kano, additional subsidies provided by the state are contributing to a further reduction of the cost of fertilizer to about N25 kg. Prices of seeds (maize, fadama and upland rice) are subsidized at 20 percent below the market price. By ordering fertilizer earlier than usual and doubling the quantity of fertilizer made available at subsidized prices to farmers, the government is improving household access to essential inputs. However, the government and its partners still face a ensuring that households have access to the subsidized fertilizer distributed through public channels in time for planting. Market prices of major commodities The average retail prices of cereals, pulses, roots and tubers are lower in May 2007 than in same period in 2006 by 8 percent for maize, 14 percent for millet, 5 percent for sorghum, 11 percent for cowpea and 13 percent for cassava flour (gari). The price of maize is relatively stable, with increases since last month in some areas (Maiduguri and Ibadan; figure 4). Figure 4. Retail maize prices in urban markets Figure 5. Retail millet prices in urban markets

4 Millet prices are also stable and lower now than in May 2006 (figure 5). The price of sorghum is generally stable and lower now relative to same period in 2006, though continued industrial demand may explain the higher prices observed in some northern cities, such as Kaduna and Maiduguri (figure 6). Figure 6. Retail sorghum prices in urban markets Figure 7. Retail cowpea prices in urban markets Prices of cowpea remain stable when compared to last month and generally lower now than in May 2006 (figure 7). Prices of locally milled rice are also stable, but are lower in Kaduna, Kano and Ibadan than last year at this time (figure 8). The price of processed cassava (gari) is stable and lower now than last year. The relatively low price of cassava (figure 9) reflects the continued impact of the Presidential Initiative, which encouraged the widespread cultivation of cassava and its propagation within the traditional growing zones of middle belt and southern Nigeria and beyond (to far northern Nigeria ). Figure 8. Retail prices of locally milled rice in urban markets Figure 9. Retail prices of processed cassava (gari) in urban markets

5 Live chicken prices are now about 20 percent higher than the same period in 2006, although prices have declined since last month (figure 10). The increase in prices since last year reflects improvements in the poultry sector as it recovers from the avian flu crisis of 2006, which depressed prices to historic lows. Figure 10. Retail prices of live chicken in urban markets Prices of maize, sorghum, millet and cowpea in Dawanau Market in Kano In Dawanau market in Kano, an important regional market, prices of millet, maize and sorghum are relatively stable, although a drop in the price of cowpea since April price was observed. Prices of cereals and cowpea remain at their lowest levels for this time of year since The gradual release of cereals and cowpeas stocked in the market is partly contributing to the present price situation. However, some increases in the prices of cereals, especially millet, are anticipated in the coming months, due to increased demand from Niger, where millet prices are higher. Livestock Cattle management requires seasonal migration of animals for the search of pasture and water. The transhumance of herds from the north in search of temporary grazing orbits in central and southern Nigeria usually occurs a few months after the cereal harvest, in February/March and lasts until June/July. The herds return to their settlement when forage and water resources become available there. The bulk of the cattle are grazing near riverine forests and rangelands near sedentary houses where water and forage are abundant. An early return movement of a limited number of transhumant Fulani herds to the northern parts of the country has been reported during the second dekad of May, in response to the early start the rainy season. The northward movement will intensify with the gradual improvement of forage and water resources in the north and will peak in June. Migratory herders from Sahelian countries such as Niger will not return to their settlements in their countries until the second dekad of July when local grazing conditions will have improved. Another type of seasonal mobility of large number of animals northward is related to the threat of trypanosomiasis, the disease transmitted to animals by the tsetse fly. Pastoral herds move from areas infested with the fly in the mid belt (in Plateau, Kogi and Kaduna states) to the northern regions of the country. Pastoral herds from Kaduna therefore migrate in June and July to Bauchi, Gombe and Borno, where environmental conditions are not suitable for the tsetse fly. Seasonal migration of animals was normal this year; as usual, it is resulting in a subsequent deterioration of the sources of food and income of pastoral households. Animals tend become weak due to hardship and thus are sold at relatively lower prices than normal which translates to reduced income for the pastoral households. Moreover, weak animals usually produce less milk, which may reduce milk intake for children under the age of 5, thus increasing their vulnerability to malnutrition. Conflicts between herders and farmers occur at this period of the year when herders are accused by farmers of letting animals damage their crops. While the negative impact of pastoral household transhumance to the north is limited in May, the upcoming massive movement of animals northward in June and July might bring about a subsequent deterioration of the food security and the nutritional status of pastoral households. Although the transhumance is a normal annual event, poor pastoral households cannot do more to prevent the problems associated with the transhumance because of their limited resources and the lack of adequate policies regarding transhumance.

6 Interventions and programs National Food Reserves As part of its policy of maintaining a strategic grain reserve aimed at influencing market prices, ensuring domestic food supplies and attenuating potential food crises, the GoN met its 2005/06 strategic food reserve target of 51,000 MT of grains this May. The GoN has provided funds to build up the reserves to a total of 200,000 MT in The continuing strategic food purchases may be contributing to stabilizing food prices in the markets. To encourage and increase the capacity of onfarm storage of grains, the National Strategic Grains Reserve Department has supplied states with 20,000 one metric ton bins for distribution to farmers. Production of about 25,000 bins has been planned for the year Effective implementation of these initiatives will contribute to stable food availability and access in the country. Bird Flu While the health situation of birds appeared to be normalizing in April, a recent outbreak of the avian flu virus was reported in the state of Zamfara. As a result, about 200 birds were culled in order to stop the spread of the virus. Combined with the first human death January in 2007 and widespread bird deaths recorded between January and April due to Newcastle disease and weather changes, this resurgence of the flue is likely to slow the recovery of the poultry sector. There are indications that several commercial poultry farmers are vaccinating their birds, against government directives, and concerns are being raised by several partners about the quality of the vaccine, and the use of proper procedures.