New challenges at the global level and new threats for biodiversity

Transcription

1 New challenges at the global level and new threats for biodiversity Irene Hoffmann, Joram Mwacharo Animal Genetic Resources Group, FAO 1st GLOBLADIV Workshop, A global view of livestock biodiversity and conservation, Bydgoszcz, Poland, 18-19th March 2009 full report A/E/C/F/ State of the World s AnGR - Products in brief brochure Arabic/Chinese/English/French/Russian/Spanish 1

2 Driving forces Livestock sector trends rising incomes demand for animal products and services trade and retailing environmental conditions technology development policy Demand Drivers Drivers of the livestock sector Population growth: + 50 % by 2050 globally; slowing down in East Asia, still strong elsewhere in developing countries Income growth: strong in E and S Asia, NENA and SS Africa picking up global financial crisis Urbanization: more than 80 % of population growth occurs in cities of developing countries Supply Drivers Cheap grain: decreasing prices over the past four decades Technological change: genetics, feeding, transport Cheap energy: substantial externalities Policy environment: incentive frameworks, market and credit regulation, sanitary standards, labour and environmental policies 2

3 Feed base Production trends Feed concentrate use (2003): 560 Mill MT in d ing Mill MT in d ed better FCR in monogastrics, best in poultry Productivity increases developed countries: poultry and dairy cattle developing countries: pigs and eggs widening technology gaps between countries, species, production systems Species shifts from ruminants to monogastrics Broad trends: soaring output and underlying structural changes Million metric tons Growing intensities Increasing scales Vertical integration/longer food chains Geographic shifts / geographic concentration Developing Developed 3

4 Future trends continuing need to improve efficiency globally slower population growth in developing countries lower income elasticity in some middle-income countries in developed countries growing concerns over food safety and health, improved animal welfare growing concerns about environmental impact of livestock (land, water, climate) Estimated distribution of livestock production systems livestock s long shadow 4

5 from Farming systems evolution smallholder mixed to large-scale industrial multifunctional to commodity-specific local market to globally integrated markets scattered to clustered production diverse breeds to narrow genetic base increasing dichotomy between large and small farms, middle size farms vulnerable Threats to AnGR 5

6 SOW: Threats to AnGR diversity Changes in production systems: loss of rangeland grazing resources, resource degradation mechanization, loss of secure tenure on land and other natural resources, changing cultural practices, erosion of customary institutions and social relations, SOW: Threats to AnGR diversity Emergency situations, natural and man-made disasters Inappropriate breeding programmes and policies intensive selection within breeds unplanned introduction of exotic breeds Inappropriate policies and economic measures subsidies favouring industrial production restocking policies 6

7 Risk status - the global picture 5% 1% 7% 20% at risk 30% unknown 12% 3% 1% 35% 11% 42% 14% 3% critical 2% critical-maintained endangered 38% endangered-maintained extinct 26% not at risk unknown Number of breeds 1200 Status of transboundary breeds extinct at risk not at risk unknown 7

8 Number of breeds Status of local breeds extinct at risk not at risk unknown Distribution of respondents by affiliation veterinary service provider regional organization livestock keeper private enterprise/company extension service provider non-governmental organization gene bank/conservation unit research institution learning institution government agency responses (%) NOTE: preliminary results based only on 37 questionnaires 8

9 Global overview of threats to AnGR use of modern reproductive technologies climate change natural disasters replacement of breed functions loss of production environment threats linked to status of animal health socio-political upheavals/instabilities loss of labour force poor conservation strategies lack of functional institutional frameworks poor/weak livestock sector policies economic and market driven threats responses (%) Threats by agro ecological zones (AEZ) legend to threats climate change natural disasters loss of production environment use of modern reproductive technologies humid/ Sub humid threats linked to status of animal health poor conservation strategies lack of functional institutions/frameworks highland/ temperate poor/weak livestock sector policies socio-political upheavals/instabilities loss of labour force replacement of breed functions economic and market driven threats arid/ semi arid responses (%) 9

10 Threats by livestock production systems (LPS) legend to threats ranching climate change natural disasters loss of production environment use of modern reproductive technologies pastoralist industrial threats linked to status of animal health poor conservation strategies lack of functional institutions/frameworks poor/weak livestock sector policies socio-political upheavals/instabilities loss of labour force replacement of breed functions economic and market driven threats crop-livestock backyard scavenger agro pastoralist agro forestry-livestock responses (%) General but tentative conclusions 1. main threats to livestock genetic diversity economic and market related threats poor/weak livestock sector policies and strategies lack of functional/presence of weak institutional frameworks poor conservation strategies and neglect of AnGR loss of labour force and know how socio-political upheavals and instability 2. trends threats vary depending on geographic regions (result not shown) some threats seem to be specific to particular AEZ and LPS such as: - replacement of breed functions - natural disasters - climate change 10

11 Questionnaire web link thank you we look forward to your contributions Emerging issues Vulnerability Interdependence Dichotomy Co-existance 11

12 Changing terms-of-trade of inputs Feed/fodder/water availability and price non-food sector demand for feed inputs (biofuel, industrial use) is expected to increase climate change may induce a reduction in fodder/feed/water supply Response cereal-based diets: superior FCR will grant monogastrics a comparative advantage to ruminants ruminants back to forage diets commercial breeds will outcompete local breeds, esp. in monogastrics Implementation of GHG reduction targets May change the ranking of species and breeds and regional shifts in market Depending on the scenario, either local or commercial breeds could gain importance Intensive dairying might become the major focus of cattle production, while commercial meat may be produced by mongastrics Problems Breed differences or genetic improvement over time are not well covered in live-cycle assessment of GHG emissions from livestock Multifunctionality and use of grasslands Tropical breeds and feeds have been largely ignored 12

13 Needs inventory, characterization, PEDS threats and hotspots conservation (in situ, ex situ) breeding for efficiency (climate change mitigation) and multifunctionality (adaptation) wide access to AnGR Goods and services consider all goods and services, and externalities ecosystems; link AnGR- PGR, esp. in rangelands link GPA-AnGR, CBD, CCD and UNFCC: develop payment for ecosystem services esp. in extensive systems (biodiversity (wild, plant and animal GR), C-sequestration) 13

14 Global Plan of Action Arabic/Chinese/English/French/Spanish German/Norwegian/Polish/Russian in preparation: Thai, Danish Thank you 14