Economic Growth and Sustainable Development

Transcription

1 Economic Growth and Sustainable Development Olof Johansson-Stenman August Röhss professor of Economics University of Gothenburg Fall 2018

2 12,000 years of population growth Source: Bolt, J., and J. L. van Zanden The First Update of the Maddison Project: Re-Estimating Growth Before Maddison Project Working Paper 4.

3 World population annual growth rate

4 Humans and cattle in the world over time Count (billions) Cattle Humans

5 Normalized growth of Humans and cattle Cattle Humans

6 Humans and wild animals during the Mesolithic Period in the GB Count (thousands) Humans Lynx Wolf Elk Aurochs 0 Mesolithic period in Great Britain (ca 8,000 BCE - 2,700 BCE)

7 Humans and wild animals in the GB today Count (millions) Humans Lynx Wolf Elk Aurochs

8 Biomass in humans and elephants Biomass (Mt C) Humans Elephants

9 World Population Density (2013) Source: World Bank World Development Indicators.

10 Fertility rate for different continents

11 Global Map of Children per Women (Fertility Rate) 2011 Source: World Bank World Development Indicators.

12 India s Population (Medium-Variant after 2010) Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division (DESA Population Division) World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision. New York.

13 Total Fertility Rate in Bangladesh ( ) Source: UN data.

14 Growth of Gross World Output (International Prices of 1990) Source: Bolt, J., and J. L. van Zanden The First Update of the Maddison Project: Re-Estimating Growth Before Maddison Project Working Paper 4.

15 Gross World Product per Capita (1990 International Dollars) Based on Maddison, The World Economy, 2001 Source: Bolt, J., and J. L. van Zanden The First Update of the Maddison Project: Re-Estimating Growth Before Maddison Project Working Paper 4.

16 Real world GDP growth rate per year

17 Shenzhen, 1980 Looking northwest..., Leroy W. Demery, Jr., Flickr. Used with permission.

18 Shenzhen, 2013 Reuters.

19 Gross National Income Per Capita (2011) Source: World Bank World Development Indicators.

20 Country Income Groups (World Bank Classifications) 2.1 Country income groups (World Bank classifications) Source: World DataBank.

21 Lights at Night (NASA Satellite) Data courtesy Marc Imhoff of NASA Satellite GSFC and Christopher Elvidge of NOAA NGDC. Image by Craig Mayhew and Robert Simmon, NASA GSFC.

22 GDP/capita vs fertility rate over time

23 Child mortality over time

24 World Infant Mortality Rates Source: World Bank World Development Indicators.

25 Human Development Index across the world Source: United Nations Development Programme Human Development Report New York: United Nations Development Programme.

26 HDI index plotted against GDP

27 Rank of HDI index versus rank of GDP

28 Life expectancy at birth versus GDP

29 Subjective Wellbeing Around the World Source: Helliwell, John, Richard Layard, and Jeffrey D. Sachs World Happiness Report. New York: Sustain-able Development Solutions Network.

30 Global Perceptions of Corruption (Transparency International 2013) Source: Transparency International Corruption Perceptions Index 2013.

31 Proportion of Population in Urban Areas 2.3 Proportion of the population in urban areas. Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division (DESA Population Division) World Urbanization Prospects: The 2011 Revision.

32 World Map, Country Size Proportional to Oil Reserves Source: Environmental Action.

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34 Gini Coefficients Around the World 2.5 Gini coefficients around the world. Source: The World Factbook. CIA.

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36 UNDP Gender Inequality Index Source: United Nations Development Programme Human Development Report New York: United Nations Development Programme.

37 College vs. High School Wage Premium, USA Source: Economic Policy Institute Briefing Paper No. 378.

38 Ratio of CEO to Average Worker Compensation, USA Source: Economic Policy Institute Briefing Paper No. 367.

39 Income Share of Top 1 percent, and Top.01 percent, USA Source: Alvaredo, Facundo, Anthony B. Atkinson, Thomas Piketty, and Emmanuel Saez. 20/05/2014. The World Top Incomes Database.

40 Distribution of Foreign Direct Investment in China (1999) Source: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development World Investment Report 2001: Promoting Linkages. New York: United Nations. Note: Yellow dots represent FDI stock by major city; provinces are shaded according to FDI.

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42 Map of the 50 Least Developed Countries 2.2 The least-developed countries (LDCs). Source: World DataBank

43 Extreme Poverty Rates by Region Source: PovcalNet/World Bank.

44 Poverty share over time in different continents

45 Number of people in extreme poverty, and not in extreme poverty

46 Wheat Yields in Mexico, India, Pakistan ( ) Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Crops. Latest update: 7/18/

47 Depiction of Industrial Revolution-era Factory Town Karl Eduard Biermann: Borsig-Maschinenbauanstalt zu Berlin

48 Historical population and economic growth cause serious threats to Planetary Boundaries Reprinted by permission from Macmillan Publishers Ltd: Nature, Rockström, Johan, Will Steffen, Kevin Noone, Åsa Persson, F. Stuart Chapin, Eric F. Lambin, Timothy M. Lenton et al. A Safe Operating Space for Humanity, copyright 2009.

49 Fluctuating levels of CO2 in the atmosphere over the past 800,000 years Reprinted by permission from Macmillan Publishers Ltd: Nature, Lüthi, Dieter, Martine Le Floch, Bernhard Bereiter, Thomas Blunier, Jean-Marc Barnola et al. High-resolution Carbon Dioxide Concentration Record 650, ,000 years Before Present, copyright Note: Ice core data before 1958; Mauna Loa data after 1958.

50 Technological development major source of economic growth per capita - Kondratiev Waves

51 PISA Education Rankings in Science (2012)

52 Green growth Major initiatives Global Green Growth Institute 2010 in South Korea OECD 2011: Towards Green Growth UNEP 2011: Towards a Green Economy WB 2012: Inclusive Green Growth Rio +20: The Future we want (green economy) Sida 2012: The next steps towards inclusive GG AfDB: Africa Development Report 2012, Towards Green Growth in Africa

53 Examples of green growth Fewer children per group in daycare and school More and higher quality publically provided cultural supply Less chemicals in the food More staff at the living of the elderly More resources at dealing with psychological deseases

54 How can we obtain green growth, or sustainable development? According to conventional economics, we cannot trust the market to obtain this We need powerful policy instruments to deal with market failures, e.g. in terms of environmental externalities National policy instruments not sufficient due to free-rider problems, we need international cooperation and possibly institutions