Market Summary. Commitment of. Traders

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1 April 5, 2019 Market Summary May corn traded higher 3 out of 5 days this week and gained 6 cents from the previous week s close. May corn is still 11 1/2 cents below where it closed prior to last week s stock report. The USDA will issue it s April Supply and Demand report on Tuesday. Trade expectations show an increase in the expected old crop carryout...it s really just a question of how much. Exports are expected to be lower along with corn demand for ethanol. Feed and Residual should also be adjusted lower based on the March 1st stocks estimate that was released last week. With the trifecta of lower demand you can start to see why board prices have been weak. The trade estimates show the old crop carryout increasing from billion to very near 2 billion bushels. We believe, as many others do, that we ll eventually see a carryout above 2.1 billion barring a big surge in exports to China if a deal gets worked out. Speaking of China, we continue to play the wait and see game. Wednesday, it sounded like a deal was immanent..by that was downplayed pushing anything out 4 to 6 weeks. The market did not like the further delay which weighed on values into the weekend. Soybeans are expected to be essentially unchanged on their old crop carryout in Tuesday s report. This would keep old crop stocks at a very lofty 900 mln bushels. Unlike corn, soybean exports continue on a pace that should reach the USDA s projection at this time. The market also expects to see South American crop production adjusted higher for both corn and soybeans. Trade estimates are calling for rather minimal upward adjustments, but from what we re hearing final production could continue to work higher which would further weigh on both old and new crop U.S. corn/bean exports. Easier to be bearish than bullish right now, but plenty could change if/when a Chinese deal is worked out. As of: 4/2/19 Long/ Short Inside this issue Weekly Price Change... 2 U.S. Soil Temps Day Precip Day Day... 4 Exports... 5 Technicals.6 Commitment of Corn Traders Managed Money Fund Positions Soybeans Wheat -247K -74K -56k Change -43K -23K +8K

2 Weekly Price Change: 2 3/15/2019 4/5/2019 Price Change % Change Corn May $3.73 $3.62 1/4 1/2 +$.09 +$ % +1.7% Soybeans May $9.09 $8.99 1/4 +$.13 +$.14 1/2 3/4 +1.5% +1.7% Wheat May $4.62 $4.67 1/4 3/4 +$.22 +$.10 3/4 +5.2% +2.2% Feeder Cattle Apr Cattle May $ $ $1.45 -$ % -0.5% Live Cattle June $ $ $0.98 +$ % +1.1% Lean Hogs - June $86.53 $ $ $ % +1.8% WTI Crude Oil $58.42 $ $2.35 $ % +5.2% US Dollar Index $96.57 $ $0.73 $ % +0.1% DJIA 26, % +1.8%

3 U.S. Soil Temperatures 7 Day GFS Precipitation Forecast 3

4 6 to 10 Day Forecast Temperature Precipitation Temperature 8 to 14 Day Forecast Precipitation 4

5 Exports Sales (Week 30) Another dismal week for U.S. corn exports. Trade estimates had forecasted between MM bushels sold this week actual sales totaled 21.15MM bushels. Currently, the U.S. is 8.8% behind last year s cumulative total. If this trend continues, U.S. exports would total 2.225B bushels for marketing year 2018/2019. Export Inspections (Week 30) A very strong week for export inspections. Trade estimates had forecasted between 28-39MM bushels, while actual shipments totaled 50MM bushels. The U.S. will need to continue to ship at the seasonal maximum amounts for the rest of the year to hit the USDA final number of 2.375B bushels, which seem very unlikely. 5 6

6 Technical Analysis May corn has a double bottom from the past two weeks at $3.56 1/2 that could be decent support for the time being. It would take a move above $3.80 to take out the high from the prior two weeks and move back into the sideways channel shown below. Tuesday s report may go a long ways towards determining if either of these two scenarios can happen or if we re starting a new sideways trend somewhere between $3.60 and $3.80 type levels. 7