Cattle Situation and Outlook

Transcription

1 Photo courtesy of Judy Jacobson, Watford City Cattle Situation and Outlook Tim Petry Livestock Economist September 24, 2013 MktClub-2013.pptx

2 Livestock Price and Production Patterns 1. Seasonal 3. Long term 2. Cycle 4. Unexpected LFTB

3 Is the Cattle Cycle Dead? When will beef cow slaughter decline? When will beef herd rebuilding start?

4 BEEF COW SLAUGHTER Federally Inspected, Weekly Thou. Head JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS C-S-34 09/20/13

5 Mil. Head 7.0 HEIFERS HELD AS BEEF COW REPLACEMENTS January 1, U.S C-N-38 02/04/13 Mil. Head JANUARY 1 FEEDER CATTLE SUPPLIES Residual, Outside Feedlots, U.S Livestock Marketing Information Center; Data Source: USDA/NASS C-N-30 02/04/13

6 HEIFERS HELD AS BEEF COW REPLACEMENTS January 1, ND Thousand Head

7 CHANGE IN BEEF COWS NUMBERS JANUARY 1, 2012 TO JANUARY 2013 (1000 Head) to to -1-1 to 4 4 to 79 VT 2 NH -1 MA -1 RI 0 CT 2 NJ 1 DE 1 MD -2-8 U.S. Total: -862 Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS 02/04/13

8

9

10 NOV FC vs DEC CORN 2012

11 NOV FC vs DEC CORN 2013

12 Omaha Corn Prices Weekly $ per bu JAN APR JUL OCT Avg Avg Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA AMS G P 02

13 MED. FRAME #1 STEER CALF PRICES Pounds, N.D., Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT AVG

14 MED. & LRG. #1 FEEDER STEER PRICES Pounds, N.D., Weekly

15 SF_LS764 Sioux Falls, SD Thu Sep 19, 2013 USDA-ND Dept Ag Market News Napoleon Livestock Auction Inc. Feeder Cattle Weighted Average Report for 09/19/2013 Receipts: 1568 Last Week: 913 Year Ago: 2293 Compar4ed to last week: Good run of yearling steers and heifers off grass. Steers too lightly tested last week to offer a comparison but had a firm undertone. Heifers were steady with 750 to 800 lb higher. Good demand for all classes of feeders today. 97 percent over 600 lbs. Receipts were 68 percent steers and 32 percent heifers. Feeder Steers Medium and Large 1 Head Wt Range Avg Wt Price Range Avg Price Yearlings

16 SF_LS764 Sioux Falls, SD Thu Sep 19, 2013 USDA-ND Dept Ag Market News Napoleon Livestock Auction Inc. Feeder Cattle Weighted Average Report for 09/19/2013 Receipts: 1568 Last Week: 913 Year Ago: 2293 Feeder Heifers Medium and Large 1 Head Wt Range Avg Wt Price Range Avg Price Yearlings

17 CME Feeder Cattle Index /1/05 11/1/05 1/1/06 3/1/06 5/1/06 7/1/06 9/1/06 11/1/06 1/1/07 3/1/07 5/1/07 7/1/07 9/1/07 11/1/07 1/1/08 3/1/08 5/1/08 7/1/08 9/1/08 11/1/08 1/1/09 3/1/09 5/1/09 7/1/09 9/1/09 11/1/09 1/1/10 3/1/10 5/1/10 7/1/10 9/1/10 11/1/10 1/1/11 3/1/11 5/1/11 7/1/11 9/1/11 11/1/11 1/1/12 3/1/12 5/1/12 7/1/12 9/1/12 11/1/12 1/1/13 3/1/13 5/1/13 7/1/13 9/1/13 16% 21% 19% 22% 10%? +17% 19% 0%

18

19

20 Price 750. lb. Steer Profit from Backgrounding $174 Calves 550 lb. to 750 lb. ADG = 2.77 lbs. 72 Days on Feed (Example: Oct. 30 Jan. 11) $/Head Corn ($/bu.) ($/cwt)

21 $ Per Cwt. SLAUGHTER STEER PRICES 5 Market Weighted Average, Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT 2014 Futures 2013 Futures Avg Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS

22 Mil. Head 2.7 FEEDLOT PLACEMENTS US Total, Monthly Avg. 2007/ JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 2013 C-N-08 09/22/13 Mil. Head 12.0 CATTLE ON FEED US Total, Monthly 11.5 Avg. 2007/ JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC C-N-10 09/22/13 Livestock Marketing Information Center: Data Source: USDA-NASS

23 Mil. Head 1.4 CATTLE PLACED WEIGHING LESS THAN 700 POUNDS 1,000 Plus Capacity Feedlots, U.S., Monthly Avg. 2007/ JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 2013 C-N-08A 09/22/13 Mil. Head 1.5 CATTLE PLACED WEIGHING MORE THAN 700 POUNDS 1,000 Plus Capacity Feedlots, U.S., Monthly Avg. 2007/ JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 2013 C-N-08B 09/22/13 Livestock Marketing Information Center: Data Source: USDA-NASS

24 SLAUGHTER COW PRICES 85-90% Lean, Weekly $ Per Cwt Avg JAN APR JUL OCT Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS C-P-35 09/16/13

25 ANNUAL AVERAGE CATTLE PRICES $ Per Cwt lb Steer Calves lb Feeder Steers Fed Steers C-P-06 01/29/13 Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

26 Beef Demand: Export Market

27

28

29

30

31

32 U S BEEF EXPORTS TO MAJOR MARKETS Carcass Weight, Monthly Mil. Pounds Japan Canada Mexico South Korea Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS I-N-35 09/06/13

33 End of Rainbow for the Next Several Years Questions?

34 North Dakota State University does not discriminate on the basis of age, color, disability, gender expression/identity, genetic information, marital status, national origin, public assistance status, race, religion, sex, sexual orientation, or status as a U.S. veteran. Direct inquiries to the Vice President for Equity, Diversity and Global Outreach, 205 Old Main, (701)