EUROPEAN COMMISSION DIRECTORATE GENERAL JRC JOINT RESEARCH CENTRE Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizens MARS Unit

Transcription

1 EUROPEAN COMMISSION DIRECTORATE GENERAL JRC JOINT RESEARCH CENTRE Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizens MARS Unit M A R S BULLETIN Vol 11 n. 4 Situation at the end of June 2003 SPI European Communities For further information please contact: J.R.C. - IPSC MARS Unit I Ispra (VA) fax: mars-stat@jrc.it 1

2 MARS Bulletin 1 - Situation at the end of June 2003 Spring-Summer AGRO-METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW 1. Agro-meteorological overview 2. Forecasts 3. Highlights by region of interest 4. Annex 1 : Crop and meteo maps The end of June Bulletin makes a synthesis of the major issues pertaining to Winter and spring crops from flowering to ripening end of maturity stages Conditions at harvest for winter crops (where applicable) Growing conditions for summer crops Water reserves status 1. Agro-meteorological overview (June 2003) PERSISTANT HOT CONDITIONS OVER THE WHOLE OF EUROPE. SEVERE DROUGHT IN MEDITERRANEAN AND EASTERN COUNTRIES. Temperature and evapotranspiration: significantly above normal anomalies Stable and persistent high-pressure conditions characterized the whole month. These were associated with very high temperatures, 7-10 C above the expected values for the period, which affected the Mediterranean Basin and especially the Iberian Peninsula (particularly Alentejo, Extremadura, > 40 C recorded). Those areas were affected by heat stress also in May, as reported in our previous bulletin, with likely consequences on the crops still in their vegetative stages (e.g.: spring barley, sunflower, maize, etc.). Values above 35 C were also recorded in Southern France, Italy, between Hungary and Romania and in Eastern Greece. These thermal conditions drastically accelerated the crop development both for the winter crops (hastening maturity and senescence) and summer crops still in vegetative stages. This behaviour was particularly evident in Maghreb, France, Spain, Northern Italy, where the summer crops presented an advanced development stage estimated at around two decades compared with the long term condition. In general in Europe, the above normal temperatures recorded from April to the end of June determined a cumulated active temperature (Growing Degree Days) of more than 200 C above the normal value: for example in Germany and Austria the rapeseed development was in delay about one decade at the beginning of April and was two decades in advance at the end of June, i.e.: in 90 days it recovered 30 days compared to the normal crop cycle. Also significantly related to the thermal conditions, the evapo- 1 This is the release of the 4 th MARS bulletin of Contributions from: G. Genovese, C. Lazar, F. Micale, S. Orlandi, A. Royer, I. Savin, M. Turchini, MARS Unit/IPSC/JRC. Data production: Alterra (NL), Meteoconsult (NL), VITO (B) and MARS Unit/IPSC/JRC. For further information contact the editorial staff at mars-stat@jrc.it. 2

3 transpiration reached values significantly above the average for the period, consuming quickly the soil reservoirs and increasing irrigation demands on summer crops. The Eastern Countries and Turkey were partially saved by the heat wave and received temperatures close to the normal. On the contrary in Russia temperatures were recorded below the average for the period. Rainfall: dry conditions persisted In general, during June, over the whole of the European Continent, the rainfalls were scarce and did not exceed the losses due to evapo-transpiration. Only Sweden, Finland, Eire, Greece, Northern and north-western France, far eastern Ukraine and south-western Turkey received more rain than average. In all of the other countries the total cumulated rainfalls rarely reached 60 mm. Many important districts in Spain (Castilla y Leon, Castilla la Mancha, Andalucia); in Portugal (Alentejo); in France (Southern areas); in Italy (Po Valley, Sicilia, Sardinia); in the Central area in Poland, Hungary, Romania, Ukraine and Byelorussia did not exceed 20 mm and in many cases even 10 mm. Light to moderate rain (10-30 mm) fell across northern Germany, northern Poland, and portions of the Czech Republic during the second part of month. Some intense showers (more than 40 mm) were recorded locally in Northern France, Central and Southern Germany, Ireland, Austria and north-western Italy. 3

4 2. Forecasts MARS yield forecast at national level End of June 2003 Yield: figures are rounded to 100 kg CEREALS YIELD t/ha SOFT WHEAT DURUM WHEAT BARLEY GRAIN MAIZE yield-02 yield-03%03/02 yield-02 yield-03 %03/02 yield-02 yield-03 %03/02 yield-02 yield-03 %03/02 EU Benelux DK D GR E F IRL I AT P FI SE UK OILSEEDS YIELD t/ha ROOTS and TUBERS YIELD t/ha RAPE SEED SUNFLOWER SUGAR BEET POTATO yield-02 yield-03%03/02 yield-02 yield-03 %03/02 yield-02 yield-03 %03/02 yield-02 yield-03 %03/02 EU Benelux DK D GR E F IRL I AT P FI SE UK

5 MARS Yield Forecasts Central European Countries - 7th July 2003 YIELD t/ha Wheat YIELD t/ha Barley / /2002 Off. data* Forecasts (%) Off. data* Forecasts (%) BG CZ EE HU LT LV PL RO SI na na SK YIELD t/ha Rape seed YIELD t/ha Grain Maize / /2002 Off. data* Forecasts (%) Off. data* Forecasts (%) BG CZ EE na HU na na LT LV PL RO SI na SK * = Last update: Eurostat 5

6 3. Highlights by region of interest EU 15 COUNTRIES EU 15 countries: persistent drought conditions in Mediterranean Countries are extending to northern Countries Dry and hot conditions affected the whole area of analysis in June with the exception of Ireland and the Scandinavian Countries. The European cereal yield forecast has been revised downward also this month and is now 5.55 t/ha (5.65 last year, -1.7%); where soft wheat yield is now expected at 6.5 t/ha (-2.8% as compared to the last campaign); durum wheat yield is now below last year s level at 2.3 t/ha (2.5 last year, -5.8%) barley yield is expected at 4.5 t/ha, (-2.1%). Grain Maize yield forecast has also been decreased this month to 9.2 t/ha which is still higher than last year s campaign (+0.9%). Jointly with a decrease in total areas of about 1.2% and a decrease in yield for the class other cereals (-2.3%) the European Cereal production would result in Mt (-2.9% as compared to 211 Mt reached last year). Rape seed average yield is expected at about 3.0 t/ha (-1.1% as compared to last year). In June, abnormal hot temperatures were recorded in almost all of the area. As a whole the temperature was more than 4-5 C above average with high peak anomalies for June never reached in the last 30 years (from our meteorological archive), i.e. more than 35 degrees for several days in southern European areas (more details in national analyses). This caused an acceleration of wheat development stages entering into ripening in southern areas at the beginning of June, and according to the scarce moisture received, a sub-optimal grain filling up to more serious heat stress shocks. These resulted especially in a low yield expectation for durum wheat in France and Italy. The higher temperatures and the dry spell also caused anticipated harvests (made in optimal conditions) in many areas. The same hot and dry conditions caused sub-optimal growing conditions for barley, especially spring barley, in Spain and eastern France. The dry period, which started in May in several areas (ref. MARS Bulletin vol.11n3); has been persisting during June and extending to central and northern EU-15 areas. The only areas receiving acceptable rainfall for the period were the Baltic Sea countries and the North Sea regions (including the French channel regions), where rains were concentrated more in the first part of the month. Greece, Albania and part of the Balkans received good rains from the second part of June onwards. The climatic water balance cumulated since January is showing a very strong and higher than normal deficit for the period, especially in Spain (especially Extremadura, La Mancha and Madrid regions); Italy (all the regions but Sicily); France (especially Aquitaine, Midi-Pyrenees, Languedoc-Roussillon, Provence-Cote-d Azur, Rhone-Alpes, Alsace and Lorraine regions); Germany (Southern and North-eastern Landers). In these areas (especially in the Southern Countries), irrigation restrictions due to the low level of water reservoirs, could determine very low yield for summer crops, especially grain maize whose forecast for that reason is to be expected. 6

7 FRANCE: EXTREMELY HOT & DRY IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS All the yield are revised downward: for soft wheat (7.2 t/ha, -6.2%), barley (6.0 t/ha, -10.2%), durum wheat (4.4 t/ha -8.5%), as a consequence of the dry conditions in Central and in the Mediterranean regions. At the moment the grain maize yield is 7

8 comparable to the previous year at 9.0 t/ha (+0.4%). Except the extreme northern districts and Bretagne, the hot wave practically covered the whole country. The worst situation was recorded, in the second half of month, in the eastern and southern areas (Lorraine, Franche-Comte, Rhone-Alpes, Bourgogne, Provence, Mid-Pyrenees, Aquitaine, Poitou-Charentes), where the temperatures passed 35 C and in many cases reached C (the absolute maximum was 40.7 C observed 22 June in the Gourdon s station when the expected average was 25 C) and where, during the whole month, were recorded temperatures of 8-10 and 12 C above the average. In the above-mentioned areas, this is the hottest June presented in the MARS agrometeorological DB (since 1975): only during July 1983 and 1998 and August 2000 were maximum temperatures reported similar to June The rate of crops development was accelerated and at the end of the considered period, in general, the majority of crops were days in advance compared to the average. The advance was more significant for the summer crops (e.g.: maize, sunflower, etc.) because they are more sensitive to thermal conditions. Associated with these high temperatures, were recorded clean skies and consequently, significantly high solar radiation and evapotranspiration values. The rains also presented unseasonable behaviour: practically absent in the south and in the Rhone valley; significantly below the average in the east, north-east and south-west; normal or slightly above in the extreme northern part and in Pays de la Loire. In the dryer areas the soil moisture rapidly fell towards critical values and the rainfed crops were affected also by water stress. UK AND REPUBLIC OF IRELAND: POSITIVE NORMAL CONDITIONS For wheat in UK is maintained the previous forecasted level (7.8 t/ha, -1.7% as compared to 2002); on contrary for Eire this is revised downward at 8.6 t/ha (+1.2%). As regards barley, a yield slightly below with 2002 is expected for UK (5.5 t/ha, -2.1%) and a good improvement in Ireland (6.2 t/ha, +13.3%). Rape seed yield is expected at 3.2 t/ha (-5.8%) in the UK and 3.0 t/ha (-4.6%) in Ireland. Over UK, rather warm temperatures (1-2 C above the average) and scattered rainfalls characterized the period. The eastern coast of England was warmer and wetter than average especially during the first and last dekads. These conditions were favourable both for winter grain crops still in the reproductive stage and summer crops in the vegetative stage. The rains were concentrated in two waves during the first and last decades and the monthly amount exceeded the climatic values. In Eire also there were possibly excessive moisture conditions: in fact the soil moisture in winter crops reached values similar to previous campaign and significantly above the expected values (favourable conditions also for diseases). As a whole, the solar radiation presented values close the average: also because in the second dekad it was slightly above the normal value. In general, in both countries at the end of the considered period all crops maintained advanced development stages, as also reported in the previous bulletins. 8

9 GERMANY AND AUSTRIA: The German soft wheat yield is revised downward but is still expected at good values, 7.0 t/ha (+1.3%). Barley yield forecast is kept unchanged at 5.9 t/ha (+6.4%). Similarly to what happened in May, in June the German territory presented a dual thermal course. In fact, this country was divided horizontally more or less in the middle (between Trier and Oberfranken): in the northern part the temperatures were significantly above the average (4-5 C) only during the first dekad, but then returned towards more normal values; on the contrary in the southern part the temperatures persisted at high values (also 8-10 C above average) for the whole month. The maximum values recorded reached C and in some cases passed 35 C (Stuttgrat, Mittelfranken). A similar situation occurred in Austria, with unseasonable high temperatures, more intense in the western areas, but also with 10 consecutive days of maximum temperatures above 30 C in the main agricultural districts. The rains were broken up (spatially and temporally) and, in general, below the normal values. Only in some restricted areas were reported more abundant rainfalls ( mm) in central (Arnsberg, Kassel) and in south-eastern (Niederbayern) areas. The worst conditions were recorded in the south-west (Unterfranken, Karlsruhe and Stuttgart) where the cumulated values remained below 20 mm. Due to the advance in the development and lack of sufficient rain to supply the crops consumption the soil water moisture fell quickly and reached critical values. The effect of this insufficiency will be more evident on the spring sowed crops which are in the most critical stages of development (e.g.: barley, potato, pasture). 9

10 BELGIUM, THE NETHERLANDS, LUXEMBOURG: WARM WITH INSUFFICIENT RAIN The positive agrometeorological conditions permitted to revise upward the expected yields: soft wheat 8.3 t/ha (+3.7%) and barley 6.6 t/ha (+6.8%), grain maize 10.9 t/ha (+6.8%). This area was only partially affected by the hot wave. The temperatures were respectively from northern to southern areas, from 3 to 5 C above the average, especially during the first half of the month. Also the rainfalls, even though below the average, presented an inverse gradient from south to north, with relatively more rain in Luxembourg, which received approximately 50 mm (around 70% compared to expected value) and less in the Netherlands (around 35 mm, equivalent to 50% of average). In comparison, the evapotranspiration assumed values significantly higher than average in Luxembourg and in southern Belgium, close to normal values in the Netherlands. Globally, the water balance was negative in all the mentioned areas, but the soil water reservoirs, accumulated in the previous period, partially compensated the crops requirement and at the end of the period the soil moisture decreased towards critical values (close to 30%). 10

11 DENMARK, SWEDEN AND FINLAND: POSITIVE TEMPERATURES, LIMITED SOLAR RADITION. As a consequence of the positive agrometeorological course in Denmark the expected yields are improved for all the main crops: soft wheat 7.4 t/ha,(+ 5.6%), barley 5.5 t/ha (+9.0%) and rape seed 2.9 t/ha (+10.1%). As regards Sweden and Finland respectively: concerning soft wheat 6.0 T/ha (-4.5%) and 3.5 t/ha (+7.2%); barley is expected at 4.4 t/ha (+0.3%) and 3.2 t/ha (-2.6%). In the first part of the month, temperatures were 3-4 C above the normal and the maximum daily values in some cases passed 25 C (this phenomenon was more accentuated in Denmark and Sweden). Then more normal thermal conditions followed and in the last part of the month a second warm wave crossed these countries. In Finland, the second dekad was characterized by a cold front bringing a reduction in temperature: the minimum values were 4-5 C below the normal. The reaction of crops to this thermal behavior was more evident in Denmark and Sweden, where the development was slightly increased. The rains were particularly abundant in Denmark, where they surpassed the climatic values by a significant amount, although normal in the other countries. In Finland the 11

12 cold front during the second dekad was associated with intense rainfalls, likely producing locally and temporary excessive soil moisture condition. Associated with the rainfall, a relatively reduced solar radiation was reported. At those latitudes this agrometeorological parameter could have a negative effect on the final yield. ITALY: SEVERE DROUGHT AND HOT TEMPERATURES The unfavourable agrometeorological course depressed all the yield estimations: durum wheat is now expected at 2.2 t/ha (-8.9%), soft wheat 4.4 t/ha (-8.5%) and barley 3.3 t/ha (-4.5%). At the moment grain maize is revised downward at 9.4 t/ha (-0.6% compared to 2002). Dry and hot conditions already registered in April and May were still maintained in June. The Azores high-pressure system persisted during the whole month, determining temperatures significantly above the climatic values (on average, 6-8 C) constantly during the month. In some cases, the maximum passed 40 C in southern areas and 38 C in the north with evident severe heat stress conditions for all cultivated crops. Evapotranspiration was also above the normal and the soil water reservoirs, already drastically reduced during the previous dry periods, were rapidly and totally consumed in the non-irrigated areas. In many cases, by the end of the month, the ET0 accumulated values passed 200 mm and maximum above 8 mm (i.e.: 1mm is equivalent to 10 m 3 /ha). The more water-demanding irrigated crops (e.g.: maize, rice, etc.,) were particularly affected in those districts where limited water reservoirs caused insufficient supplies. If the drought persists in July possible irrigation restriction could further reduce maize yield expectations. The rains were practically absent: on average in the whole country rainfall was only 40% compared to the seasonal values. In southern main agricultural districts in total 7-10 mm of rainfall was recorded and in north was approximately 20 mm. 12

13 These conditions harshly depressed the production of the winter crops; but stressed and boosted the development of the summer crops still in vegetative stages. 13

14 SPAIN AND PORTUGAL: HOTTER THAN NORMAL IN THE NORTH The persistent drought conditions drastically changed the expected yields in Spain and Portugal, respectively: soft wheat 3.1 t/ha (-4.4%) and 1.5 t/ha (-19.5%); durum wheat 2.1 t/ha (-8.5%) 1.1 t/ha (-36.5%); barley 2.3 t/ha(-14.4%) and 1.3 t/ha (- 30.6%). The Iberian Peninsula was partially touched by the hot wave which affected the major EU15 countries. Although, in the southern areas very high temperatures were recorded (in some cases above 40 C), only the north and north-eastern parts (Castilla y Leon, Aragon, Cataluna) presented temperatures significantly above the average for the period. In those areas the maximum daily values were 6-8 C above the average. The unseasonable thermal conditions persisted from the beginning until a couple of days before the end of month, when the synoptic air flux changed, re-establishing a more normal situation. The larger thermal availability increased the crops development and at the end of the month all the main crops presented a significative advanced stage. The spring-summer crops (e.g.: spring barley) likely suffered more because of their early reproductive stages of development. On the contrary, the impact of those conditions on winter crops yield should be limited, considering that due to the advanced development (more pronounced in the northern areas) those crops were generally harvested in June. The rains were practically absent (less than 5 mm during the whole period) in the whole central and southern part of Peninsula, Galicia and Northern Portugal, in the last dekad, received more rain (50-70 mm). Coupled with high temperatures, the cumulated evapotranspiration values were above the climatic averages: particularly high in Castilla y Leon, where they reached 200 mm: more water supply will be needed for the summer crops consumption. 14

15 15

16 GREECE: heat spell and good soil moisture Some extreme temperatures were recorded up to 40 C and heat stress conditions were observed with 30 C during more than 10 days. It could have a negative impact on the grain filling and reduce the yield potential. Greece received significant rainfall from the 2nd decade of June, this replenished the soil moisture that was optimal for the maturity of the cereals. A yield value below 2002 is expected for soft wheat (2.4 t/ha, -18.8%), while for durum wheat the national result would be 2.1 t/ha (+11.1%) as compared to the low performances of CANDIDATE COUNTRIES ESTONIA, LATVIA, LITHUANIA: decreasing soil moisture, but still good potential. The wheat yields expected for Estonia (2.1t/ha) and Latvia (3.1t/ha) will be lower than those from the previous year (-8.8 and respective -7.1%). For Lithuania, the forecast yield (3.6t/ha) is similar with that from 2002 (-0.9%). Increased barley yields are foreseen for Lithuania (+3%) and Estonia (+1.8%), whilst for Latvia is probable a small decrease from the level of the previous year (-1.1%). Thermal conditions were normal for June, with the exception of the Eastern parts of these countries where the last ten days of the month were colder than average. The development stage of the main crops is close to the usual pattern. The monthly rainfalls were below average (climatic reference ), and this was reflected in a decrease of the relative soil moisture level for both winter and spring crops. POLAND: dry conditions 16

17 The temperatures were high to normal according to the south-west, north-east axis. It contributed to catch up in the development delay of the winter crops. Maximum temperature reached around 30 C and should not have affected the crops. The whole country received some rain during the 2 nd decade of June and the north east benefited from extra precipitations at the end of the month. Except in this last area the precipitations were far below the seasonal values (<-30%) and were insufficient to balance the evapotranspiration. The crops were relying on the soil moisture that recorded a fast decrease in June. It reached far below average value for winter and spring crops. Further rainfall will be necessary to replenish the water reserves and preserve the crops from yield potential decrease particularly when reaching the critical maturity stage. The winter crops forecasts remained below the 2002 yield with 3.7t/ha (-3.6%) for wheat and 2.2t/ha (-3.9%) for rape seed. Compared to last month the spring crops were more sensitive to the water stress and started to give lower yield forecasts. It is foreseen to reach 2.8t/ha (-13.2%) for barley, and 5.6t/ha (-8.3%) for maize. 17

18 CZECH REPUBLIC, SLOVAKIA, HUNGARY: hot and dry particularly in Hungary The three countries experienced higher temperatures than average (+20 to +30%) during the entire month. It continued to boost the winter crops that were 2 decades ahead of the normal stage at the end of June. Hungary experienced heat stress with 30 C during more than 10 days and maximum temperatures from 35 to 40 C. These extreme events occurred during the ripening maturity stages of the winter crops and should have had a negative impact on the yield elaboration. The rainfalls were much lower than average (<-30%) with less than 30 mm for most of the countries. Some zones in the south east of the Czech Republic and central Hungary did not received any precipitation. The soil water reserve was suboptimal for the winter and spring crops and should have had a significant negative impact on the yield particularly when associated with heat stress. Further rainfalls will be necessary for spring crops to reduce the water deficit and minimize its impact on the final yield. Czech Republic had the highest wheat yield forecast with 4.5t/ha (-3.6% compared with 2002) then Slovakia with 3.6t/ha (-5.0%) and Hungary with 3.1t/ha (-11.8%). For barley the same order is followed with 3.7t/ha (-1.4%), 3.0t/ha (-16.8%) and 2.7t/ha (-12.6%). The rapeseed yields are foreseen to reach 2.5t/ha (+7.9%) for Czech Republic and 2.0t/ha (-3.8%) for Slovakia. Maize is foreseen with 6.5t/ha in Czech Republic and t/ha for the Slovakia and Hungary. 18

19 BULGARIA, ROMÂNIA: Drought in Romania, decreasing but still good relative soil moisture level in Bulgaria Effects of droughts are reflected in the lower wheat yields 2.8t/ha (-7.1%) in Bulgaria and 1.8t/ha (-5.7%) for România. Also, fallings from the levels of the previous year are expected to occur for barley, -12.6% for Bulgaria and -13.4% for Romania. Maize yields forecasted for the most probable scenario (dry summer) are 2.4t/ha for Bulgaria (-43.2%) and 2.2t/ha for Romania (-17.3%). In România a severe drought has been decreasing the relative soil moisture for wheat to half-level as compared to the average value (reference ), except for the South- West of the Country. For Bulgaria the wheat and barley soil moisture remain still close to normal level, whilst is already at lower than average levels (less than -30%) for maize and sunflower crops in the Eastern of the Country. Wheat (between ripening and maturity) recovered the previous development delay as a consequence of the hot temperatures in June. Simulated water limited storage organs are showing lower values than normal (<-30%) for the Southern part of Bulgaria and for România (except the South-West were the values are close to normal, and South were reduction is about 25%). In fact for this 19

20 country the potential yield may have been considerably reduced, by the severe winter conditions (Mars Bulletin, vol.11 n.1). As regards the main summer crops, the simulated biomass for maize and sunflower are now close to average. However, as the climatic water balance and the crop soil moisture are lower than normal, more rain will be needed in the coming weeks to keep normal conditions. 20

21 TURKEY: risk of heat stress on the coast line Turkey experienced high temperatures around 40 C in the south west and south east. In these zones the temperature remained over 30 C for more than 10 days. During the sensitive stage of wheat maturity and ripening it should had a negative impact on the yield elaboration. The rainfalls were lower than average except during the first decade of June on the south western and eastern areas where it replenished the soil moisture. Agro-climatic conditions are suboptimal and the spring crops will need further precipitation for the grain filling stage. Eastern countries BELARUS: Unfavourable climatic water balance Rainfalls received in June by the Centre and Southern areas of this country were 30% below normal. For the Northern part of Belarus the rain deficit was by 20%. In the whole Country the climatic water balance is showing a level 30% lower than the long term average for the same period. The wheat relative soil moisture decreased till the level recorded for the previous year. The simulated biomass for barley is still close or above the normal value. 21

22 UKRAINE: Drought additionally affected wheat crops Wheat yield is expected at 1.75 t/ha. This value shows a decrease as compared to the simulated values for 2002 (MARS source wheat yield forecast in 2002: 2.54 t/ha) by 31.0% and a decrease from the level of previous year as given by FAO (2.99 t/ha) by -41.3%. In June precipitations were 30% lower than normal with the exception of a limited area in the East of Ukraine (Donets ka and Luhans ka), for which the climatic water balance was favourable at the end of the month. The simulated wheat development reached the flowering stage at the end of June, the two weeks of phenological delay from the end of March being fully recovered at the beginning of this month. During the first and the second decade of June, the relative soil moisture sharply decreased below the normal values (with more than -30%) resulting in a decrease (more than -30%) of the storage organs weight in Eastern of the Country (without the exception mentioned in rainfall commentary). The winter-kill conditions, which are not taken directly into account in the wheat simulations, and which were clearly pointed out in the agro-meteorological overview for December 2002-February 2003 (Mars Bulletin, vol. 11 n.1) could decrease the expected yield level even more. The biomass (water limited) for grain maize is showing below normal values (about - 10%) and for some Eastern area above the long term average (> 15%) values. At the end of June, the simulated soil moisture available for maize shows a below normal level (more than 30% less). More water supplies will be needed soon to maintain the biomass potential. A similar remark may be advanced for sunflower. 22

23 RUSSIA: dry spell in the south and low temperatures in the north. Meteorological conditions during June were in general not optimal for crop growth at the European part of Russia. The precipitation was scarce at the Northern Caucasus region, and less in more than 30% comparing with previous year and comparing with long-term average. Lack of precipitation in combination with normal temperature conditions leaded to very negative water balance, which was lower then previous year and long-term average values in more than 30%, and to low soil moisture. Winter crops in this region were between flowering and maturity, and dry spell should affect the yield. According crop growth simulation results winter wheat dry matter accumulation at the Northern Caucasus region is lower in 20-30% comparing with previous year. In spite of low precipitation soil moisture at the end of June in Volga region was lower than normal, but close to the values of the previous year. Crops should not be affected here by dry spell, which is confirmed by the results of the winter wheat growth simulation. Amount of precipitation in the Central okrug of Russia had big spatial variability and was close to the norm and higher then during June Lack of precipitation was observed only in some regions at the western part of the Central okrug, which should lead 23

24 to the low soil moisture. Comparatively low for June air temperatures should lead to the delay in crops development in the Central okrug of Russia. Big amount of precipitation in the West-Northern region of Russia leaded to better water balance and better situation with soil moisture comparing with previous year. But crops development should take place with delay due to low air temperature, which was less than 15 0 C practically during all June. Thus, it is possible to conclude, that the meteorological situation in the European part of Russia was worse comparing with previous year for development of winter and spring crops in the Northern Caucasus region, was close to the situation in previous year in the Volga region. Crops development at the northern half of the European part of Russia will depend on the meteorological conditions in July, where good conditions were observed during June only for potato (especially on coarse soils). 24

25 Annex 1: Crop maps 25

26 26

27 27