16 th 17 th and 19 th May 2016 National Stakeholders Consultation on Climate Services (NCCS) Agronomy Research Centre Ashley Adams (MSc)

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1 Applications and Needs of Climate Services /Data for the Sugar Industry. 16 th 17 th and 19 th May 2016 National Stakeholders Consultation on Climate Services (NCCS) Agronomy Research Centre Ashley Adams (MSc)

2 Aspects of Climate Services-WMO Climate services are the dissemination of climate information to the public or a specific user. Involve strong partnerships among providers and stakeholders, including government agencies, private interests and academia For the purpose of interpreting and applying climate information for decision making, sustainable development and improving climate information products, predictions and outlooks are other aspects.

3 Overview of GuySuCo GuySuCo has eight estates situated along the Coast of Guyana canes are cultivated on lands below sea level. GuySuCo has currently in cultivation: 46,926 hectares. Farmers for GuySuCo: Total cane land Estate & Farmers: 6,028 hectares 52,954 hectares Two harvesting seasons: First Crop (1st week in February to end of April.) Second Crop (4th week July to 1st week December).

4 Figure 1: Map showing the eight current estates of the state owned Guyana Sugar Corporation

5 Network of Met stations, Rain gauges and AWS Eighty Meteorological Stations Eighty seven rainfall gauges Two Sutron Automatic Weather Stations

6 Application 1. Daily decision making in the Management of Agronomic Activities (e.g. of first crop)

7 Climatic conditions, key component of reporting Format ( ) 350 Rainfall Industry vs 60/61 Yr Mean Industry Mean Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Actual rainfall vs LTM jan 2015 to feb 2016

8 Application 2. Research and Development ( RF) THE IMPACT OF EL NIÑO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION EVENTS ON RAINFALL AND SUGARCANE PRODUCTION IN GUYANA Results of multiple regression analysis showed that there were few evidences of significant positive relationships between cane yield and rainfall/enso parameters for the combined Berbice or Demerara locations FCYLD y = x r = 0. 2 Y Predicted Y FCRFT Linear (Predicted Y)

9 3. Predictions and outlooks for forward planning (Precipitation) MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICE - Recent Forecast

10 Predictions, and outlooks for forward planning (ENSO)

11 4.Pest and Disease control

12 Major Pest- RODENTS

13 At certain periods of yr.; 75 % of the females are pregnant, indicating a reproductive peak mainly in the wet, June- July period, a smaller peak occur during dry Oct Nov. months Fig. 4a: Rat catches per manday in relation to rainfall between 2004/2005 & 2007 Rats Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Months Rainfall (mm) 2004 / 2005 R/M/D 2007 R/M/D rainfall 2004 Rainfall 2007

14 CONTROL PROGRAMME GUIDED BY CLIMATE ANALYSIS Integrated Management Approach Best IPM strategies in order of priority: Surveillance- provide records of populations/damages. Management of crop area- weeds & trash to reduce reinfestation and nesting sites. Strategic baiting- high risk areas at the correct phase of the population cycle. Regular hunting- endemic &high risk areas. Maintenance of the programme constantly.

15 Needs of climate services/data for the Sugar Industry The successful implementation of an Early Warning System which will be of benefit to all stakeholders/sectors including Agriculture. Improvement of Observations and Monitoring component to ensure that the climate observations necessary to meet the needs of climate services are generated.( More real time data) The advancement of the Research, Modeling and Prediction component to achieve greater success of various research agendas, in relation to climate variability and change and how they may affect the sugarcane crop. ( Crop and Pest modeling).

16 THANK YOU