Russia and Central Asian Countries

Transcription

1 Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen (IPSC) Agriculture & Fisheries Unit MARS FOOD Action Bulletin 4, 26 CROP MONITORING for FOOD SECURITY and Central Asian Countries Situation at the End of August 26 Agrometeorological overview for summer crops

2 Introduction The present Bulletin is dedicated to the analysis of the agrometeorological situation in and Central Asian countries during the period from the beginning of May to the end of August 26, and to the assessment of summer crop status at the end of this period. Crops. This is the time for summer crops development in most countries of the region. Winter cereals were harvested during the period of the analysis. In many countries of the region more than 9% of cereals are cultivated as winter crops. But in near 7% of wheat and more than 9% of barley are spring crops. All barley and more than 9% of wheat in are spring crops too. Near 9% of barley are spring crop in and., rice and potato are other important crops which are cultivated in summer in the most countries of the region. Summer crops in,,,,, Afghanistan, Northern, Northern India, Northern and Western are cultivated under irrigation. Part of the field crops in,,, and southern regions of is irrigated too. Only in,, and summer crops are cultivated primarily in rainfed conditions. The agrometeorological situation during the period of analysis is compared with the situation at the similar period of the previous season, and with longterm average data. The background information is given in the following table. country Production and Yield of main summer crops, 25 (source FAO, last updated August 26) maize rice potatoes 3179 (3,6) 572 (4,6) (11,9) 16 (5,3) No crop 575 (19,1) 151 (4,8) 12 (5,3) 183 (15,3) 441 (2,5) No crop 44 (12,2) 51 (5,4) 37 (4,1) 252 (15,3) 437 (5,9) 17 (2,9) 1142 (14,8) 113 (11,3) 52 (5,2) 556 (19,9) 16 (1,1) 12 (2,4) 16 (5,9) 155 (4,5) 152 (3,2) 85 (17,) Afghanistan 25(2,5) 448(3,1) 24(16,8) 3(2,) 125(2,5) 63(12,6) 15 (7,3) 35 (5,6) 42 (21,5) 8 (2,) No crop 22 (27,5) Northern India No data No data No data Northern No data No data No data Northern No data No data No data Western No data No data No data First figure is a production (1 tons), figure in brackets yield (t/ha). Green colour indicates figures which are higher than normal and red colour indicates figures which are lower than normal. Methods. The agrometeorological situation during the period of analysis is compared with the situation during the previous season, and with longterm average data. The monitoring of the agrometeorological situation is based on the analysis of the following al data: minimal, maximal and average air temperature, sums of precipitation and global radiation, al values of the climatic water balance, and maps of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Indexes (NDVI). Meteorological data are derived from the outputs of the numerical meteorological model from ECMWF (UK), and were prepared for analysis by METEOCONSULT (NL). SPOTVEGETATION data were used as a basis for calculation of the remote sensing indicators of crop growth. Data were preprocessed by VITO (BE). Dekadal maximal NDVI values were weighted for pixels, where crops are cultivated, for each country of the region. Weighted NDVI values were used as an indicator of crop status. Dry Matter Production maps were calculated by VITO based on SPOTVEGETATION data and information about global radiation, applying the Monteith approach. The Bulletin has the following structure. The next page contains the highlights and the main results of the analysis. The following pages are dedicated to the analysis of separate indicators of the crop growth during the period of analysis. The last pages contain the results of quantitative crop yield prediction. Acknowledgements. The following organizations were involved in data supply: VITO (BE), METEOCONSULT (NL), ECMWF (UK), ALTERRA (NL). Disclaimer. The geographical borders are purely a graphical representation and are only intended to be indicative. These boundaries do not necessarily reflect the official EC position. Legal Notice. Neither the EC nor any person acting on behalf of the commission is responsible for the use which might be made of the following information. Contact: Jacques Delincé, Head of the Agriculture and Fisheries Unit, fax: Olivier Leo, MARSFOOD Action leader, olivier.leo@jrc.it Igor Savin, Bulletin author, igor.savin@jrc.it

3 Highlights Country by Country Afghanistan Northern India Northern Northern Western Agrometeorological conditions during MayAugust 26 were favourable for summer crops. The yield of maize and rice is likely to be higher than normal, and the yield of potatoes close to normal. Agrometeorological conditions during MayAugust 26 were favourable for summer crops. The yield of maize and potatoes is likely to be higher than normal. summer crops due to low amount of precipitation. However, the yield of summer crops is likely to be higher than normal. Agrometeorological conditions during MayAugust 26 were favourable for summer crops. The yield of maize and potatoes is likely to be close to normal. summer crops due to low amount of precipitation. However, the yield of summer crops is likely to be higher than normal. Agrometeorological conditions during MayAugust 26 were favourable for summer crops. The yield of rice is likely to be higher than normal, and the yield of maize and potatoes close to normal. summer crops due to low amount of precipitation. However, the yield of summer crops is likely to be higher than normal. summer crops due to low amount of precipitation. The yield of maize is likely to be lower than normal, and the yield of potatoes and rice close to normal. summer crops due to low amount of precipitation. However, the yield of maize and potatoes is likely to be higher than normal, and the yield of maize close to normal. summer crops due to low amount of precipitation. However, the yield of summer crops is likely to be close to normal. summer crops due to low amount of precipitation. However, the yield of maize and rice is likely to be higher than normal, and the yield of potatoes close to normal. summer crops due to low amount of precipitation. However, the yield of maize is likely to be higher than normal, and the yield of potatoes close to normal. summer crops due to low amount of precipitation. However, the yield of potatoes is likely to be close to normal. summer crops due to heavy rains and extreme air temperature. However, the summer crop status is likely to be close to normal. summer crops due to heavy rains, moisture deficit and extreme air temperature. However, the summer crop status is likely to be close to normal. summer crops due to heavy rains, moisture deficit and extreme air temperature. However, the summer crop status is likely to be close to normal. summer crops due to heavy rains, and moisture deficit. However, the summer crop status is likely to be close to normal.

4 Results of the analysis The meteorological conditions during MayAugust 26 were favourable or close to optimal for summer crop growth only in. Insufficient amounts of precipitation were received in,,,,, Afghanistan and. However, practically in all these countries summer crops are irrigated. Heavy rains which took place during the period of analysis in some regions of,, and especially in Northern, Northern India, and Northern should affect summer crop growth. Extremely high air temperature and moisture deficit could damage summer crops in southern, Northern India, Northern, and southern. In general the meteorological situation for summer crops during MayAugust 26 was better than in the previous year in, and it was worse in other countries of the region, especially in,, and Afghanistan. However, it is likely to be that unfavourable meteorological conditions during the period under analysis will not affect seriously irrigated summer crops. The summer crops yield expectations are presented in the table. These values are preliminary, and should be used with caution. Crop Yield 26 Expectation (t/ha) crop maize rice potato 2,63,6 4,34,5 11,411,9 5,36,1 No crop 14,316,4 4,34,8 4,85,3 13,815,3 2,22,8 No crop 11,512,3 4,24,7 3,54,2 14,215,3 5,46,3 2,63,2 14,14,8 1,312,4 4,85,6 19,19,5,71,1 1,12,1 4,85,9 4,14,6 2,32,7 16,17,3 Afghanistan 1,72,5 1,92,6 No data 2,32,6 No data 14,16,9 6,47,4 5,25,7 21,21,7 No data No crop 27,534, Northern India No data No data No data Northern No data No data No data Northern No data No data No data Western No data No data No data Green colour indicates figures which are higher than normal, red colour indicates figures which are lower than normal, and black close to normal. Favourability of meteorological conditions during MayAugust 26 for summer crops (in color): colour on the map shows favorability and main limitations (see legend on the left) Comparison with the conditions of previous year: hatchings show units, where: br better radiation regime; bm better moisture regime; wr worse radiation regime; wm worse moisture regime Caspian Aral Afghanistan India

5 Global Radiation and Temperature Conditions The amount of radiation in general was close to optimal for summer crop development in all countries of the region. During MayAugust 26 more radiation than normal was received by croplands in,, Afghanistan,,, and Northern. Amount of radiation received by croplands in other countries of the region was in general close to normal. Comparison with the previous year shows that less radiation was received by croplands in Northern, Northern, and. More radiation was received in all other countries excepting,, and where the radiation sum was close to the previous year. The air temperature during MayAugust was higher than normal only in, and, and it was lower in,, Western, and. But cold days (with minimal air temperature below 4 C) were not observed during MayAugust in cropping areas of the regions. Days with maximal air temperature above + 4 C were dominant in MayAugust in many countries of the region excluding northern part of, Caucasus countries, and. Extremely high air temperature was observed in,, Northern India, and Northern. Global radiation (MayAugust) comparing with previous year = + Afghanistan + = + = Northern India + Northern Northern Western + Difference in Global Radiation Sum (kj/m 2 ) for the period May August between 26 and 25 (only for croplands, in colours). Hatching shows regions with a difference higher than 5% (vertical positive, horizontal negative). extremely high air temperature degree C Maximal Air Temperature Northern May1 May2 May3 Jun1 Jun2 Jun3 Jul1 Jul2 Jul3 Aug1 Aug2 Aug3 tmax 26 tmax 25 Caspian Aral Afghanistan India

6 Precipitation Sum The amount of precipitation during MayAugust 26 was extremely limited in,,,, and southern. Oppositely, a number of s with amount of precipitation more than 1 mm per was observed in some regions of,,, Northern, and Northern India. In general the amount of precipitation was higher than normal during this period in,, and Northern India, and was lower than normal in, and. The amount of precipitation was close to normal in other countries of the region. More precipitation than in previous year was observed during MayAugust in, and Northern, and less was observed in all other countries excepting,,, and Northern where amount of precipitation was close to the previous year. The biggest negative difference was observed for the northern,, Fergana valley in, and near the border between India and. It seems necessary to stress out that summer crops in some countries of the region are cultivated in irrigation conditions (see Introduction), and a precipitation sum for these countries is not a reliable indicator for crop growth monitoring. Precipitation (MayAugust) comparing with previous year + = Afghanistan = = Northern India Northern + Northern = Western Difference in Precipitation Sum (mm) for the period MayAugust between 26 and 25 (only for croplands, in colours). Horizontal hatching shows regions with amount of precipitation less than 12 mm during MayAugust 26, vertical hatching shows regions with amount of precipitation more than 36 mm for the same period. heavy rains (more than 1 mm of precipitation per ) mm Precipitation May1 May2 May3 Jun1 Jun2 Jun3 Jul1 Jul2 Jul3 Aug1 Aug2 Aug3 pre 26 pre 25 pre l.t.av. Caspian Aral Afghanistan India

7 Climatic Water Balance In general, the climatic water balance (CWB) for the period MayAugust 26 was positive only in Northern,, eastern, and western. It was negative for other regions. The climatic water balance was worse than longterm average data in,, Northern,,, and. It was better during MayAugust when comparing with longterm average values for this period only in, and. Situation is better for the period MayAugust in the current year than in the previous year only in, and Northern (due to heavy rains in May), and close to the previous year in,, and Northern. The situation in other countries was worse than in the previous year. It seems necessary to stress out that summer crops in some countries of the region are cultivated in irrigation conditions (see Introduction), and CWB for these countries is not a reliable indicator for crop growth monitoring. Climatic Water Balance (MayAugust) comparing with previous year + Afghanistan = = Northern India Northern + Northern = Western Climatic Water Balance Difference in Climatic Water Balance (mm) for the period MayAugust between 26 and 25 (only for croplands, in colours). Horizontal hatching shows regions with negative water balance, and vertical with positive CWB during MayAugust 26. mm May1 May2 May3 Jun1 Jun2 Jun3 Jul1 Jul2 Jul3 Aug1 Aug2 Aug3 cwb 26 cwb 25 cwb l.t.av. Caspian Aral Afghanistan India

8 The NDVI curves shows that in the current season the vegetation status in regions with potato was better than in previous year in,,, and Western. The status is worse in,,,,, Afghanistan, and. The vegetation status in regions with maize was better comparing with previous year in,,,,,, and Western and it was worse in,, Afghanistan,, and. The status of vegetation in rice producing regions is likely to be better in the current season than in previous in,,,, and Northern India. The status was worse in,,, and Western. The results of the analysis are summarized in the Table. The figures indicate yearanalogue for the NDVI time profile. The colour of cells indicates the difference of the indicator with the previous season value (red worse, green better, and gray the same). Remote Sensing Indicators sonanalogue for areas NDVI with: potato maize rice Afghanistan Northern India Northern Northern Western Bryansk potatoes maize rice NDVI NDVI NDVI Jan1 Feb1 Mar1 Apr1 May1 Jun1 Jul1 Aug1 Sep1 Oct1 Nov1 Dec1 Jan1 Feb1 Mar1 Apr1 May1 Jun1 Jul1 Aug1 Sep1 Oct1 Nov1 Dec1 Jan1 Feb1 Mar1 Apr1 May1 Jun1 Jul1 Aug1 Sep1 Oct1 Nov1 Dec min (199825) max (199825) min (199825) max (199825) min (199825) max (199825) Caspian Aral Afghanistan India

9 The analysis of the Dry Matter Production modelling results for areas with potatoes shows that less dry matter than in previous year was (potentially) produced in May August in, Afghanistan,, Northern India, Northern, and Western. More dry matter was produced in,,,,, and Northern. The situation was more negative within areas with maize growing. More dry matter was produced in,,, Northern, and Western. Less dry matter was accumulated in,,, Afghanistan,, Northern India, and Northern. The dry matter production within areas with rice was better than in the previous year in,,, and Northern, it was close to the previous year in and and worse than in the previous year in other countries of the region. The results of the analysis are summarized in the Table. The figures indicate yearanalogue for the DMP accumulation. The colour of cells indicates the difference of the indicator with the previous season value (red worse, green better, and gray the same). Dry Matter Production modelling sonanalogue for areas DMP with: potato maize rice Afghanistan Northern India Northern Northern Western DMP Cumulated Dry Matter Production since 1 May 26 Kaluga potatoes M1 M2 M3 J1 J2 J3 J1 J2 J3 A1 A2 A3 S1 S2 S3 DMP Cumulated Dry Matter Production since 1 May 26 rice M1 M2 M3 J1 J2 J3 J1 J2 J3 A1 A2 A3 S1 S2 S3 DMP Cumulated Dry Matter Production since 1 May 26 Afghanistan maize M1 M2 M3 J1 J2 J3 J1 J2 J3 A1 A2 A3 S1 S2 S min (199825) max (199825) min (199825) max (199825) min (199825) max (199825) Caspian Aral Afghanistan India

10 Yield Prediction The yield 26 figures were received based on simultaneous analysis of statistical yield data, and different crop growth indicators. The methodological approach is briefly described on the next page of the Bulletin. The table below contains the results of the analysis. Use of the main crop growth indicators for yield prediction at the end of August 26 crop growth indicator & yield expectation based on its analysis (t/ha) country crop Analysis of the statistical yield curve Linear regression with cumulated DMP values since May 26 Linear regression with Maximal NDVI value Yearanalogue for NDVI profile Yearanalogue for Cumulated for the season Dry Matter production profile Yield expectation for 26 (t/ha) Afghanistan yield yield R 2 yield R 2 year yield year yield 4,4,5 25 4,6 25 4,6 2,64,6 2 2,1 25 3,6 11,211, , ,5 5,36,8 5,1, ,8 25 5,3 14,119,1 4,66,1 4,35,6 13,815,3 1,93, 9,15,2 3,14,6 4,25,3 14,215,3 2,43,4 5,6,3 13,314,8 4,86,4 1,313,1 19,19,9 1,12,8,71,3 4,87, 2,23, 4,4,9 16,18, 1,53, 1,32,5 2,2,6 13,617, 5,26,7 6,49, 21,24, 27,54, 16,3 5, 2,7 13,9 2,7 5,5 15, 14,8,8 1, 2,5 4,3 16,8 2,4 16,8 5,3 6,5 21,2,6589,763,5337,471,822,6935,4845,5692,3653,3946,979,7929,7384,8136,688,9534,7661, ,7 4,7 12,9 2,6 12,2 5, 3,5 4,1 2,6 9,2 3,2,4787,7949,6883,7132,899,3565,846,4614,777,4373, ,5 5,3 4,3 15,3 2,2 12,2 4,1 3,7 15,3 3,1 6,2 15, 4,9 12,3 18,4 1,9,8 4,7 2,6 4,5 15,9 2,5 2,5 2,5 16,3 3,9 7,2 21,5 18,6 27, ,5 4, 3,2 15,3 2,4 11,6 3,6 3,7 13,3 3, 5,8 15,8 4,9 12,3 18,4 2,1 1, 4,7 1,2 2,7 17,2 2, 1,8,8 14,1 5,6 7,3 21,5 19,4 27,2 4,34,5 2,63,6 11,411,9 5,36,1 14,316,4 4,85,3 4,34,8 13,815,3 2,22,8 11,512,3 3,54,2 4,24,7 14,215,3 2,63,2 5,46,3 14,14,8 4,85,6 1,312,4 19,19,5 1,12,1,71,1 4,85,9 2,32,7 4,14,6 16,17,3 1,92,6 1,72,5 2,32,6 14,16,9 5,25,7 6,47,4 21,21,7 27,534,

11 Yield Prediction (methods) The preliminary crop yield 26 figures were obtained based on the analysis of all indicators mentioned in the Bulletin. The first approximation for the yield prediction was made based on the analysis of the statistical yield curves behaviour (on expert analysis of linear trend, evidence of the periodic behaviour of the crop statistical yield curve, and descriptive statistics for 15 years of yield data). As a result, broad ranges of yield expected values were assigned for all countries of the region, except Northern, Northern India, Northern, and Northern. The crop statistical data for these regions were not available. Then, a regression analysis between the statistical yield values and separate crop growth indicators was conducted. The indicators selected were: maximum seasonal NDVI value, the results of dry matter (DMP) accumulation modelling (cumulated for the period from 1 of May 26). These indicators were first aggregated for the areas with a given crop at country level. These equations were applied for the calculation of the 26 yield for the above mentioned countries. The results are presented in the table above. The results of the regression analysis were used to obtain the second approximation of the yields for the countries for which regression equations were established. The results of the similarity analysis (search of the year with the similar behaviour of the indicator) for the NDVI and DMP curves were used as additional information. The square sums of deviation between the indicator in current and other seasons, as well as extreme deviation values, were used for the definition of the yearanalogue. The year analogues for the countries of the region, and corresponding statistical yield figures are presented in the table. These yield figures constitute the third approximation of the yield. The final yield expectation figures for main summer crops were gained through expert analysis of all yield prediction values, taking into consideration the qualitative analysis of other meteorological indicators. The results are presented in the table on the previous page of the Bulletin. These values of yield expectation are preliminary, and should be used with caution.