Climate, Water, and Ecosystems: A Future of Surprises

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1 Climate, Water, and Ecosystems: A Future of Surprises Robert Harriss Houston Advanced Research Center Changsheng Li Steve Frolking University of New Hampshire

2 Climate change is not uniform geographically Average T for compared to , degrees C J. Hansen et al., PNAS 103: ( 2006)

3 And T is not the only factor that s changing NCDC, 2000 Effect is not uniform; most places getting wetter, some getting drier.

4 Mitigation and Adaptation to Climate Change By Design Carbon dioxide is primary greenhouse gas, but methane, nitrous oxide, CFC s, ozone, and black soot also contribute to climate change. Significant climate change mitigation benefits Significant climate change mitigation benefits can be derived by reducing nitrous oxide and methane emissions from agriculture.

5 Climate forcing agents in the industrial era. Effective e forcing accounts for efficacy of the forcing mechanism Source: Hansen et al., JGR, 110, D18104, 2005.

6 Inefficiencies in fertilizer nitrogen use offer important opportunities for mitigation of nitrous oxide emissions N Fertilizer Produced N Fertilizer Applied N in Crop N In Feed N in Store N Consumed % of the N produced in the Haber-Bosch process and used for animal production enters the human mouth. Galloway JN and Cowling EB. 20

7 DNDC: A Computer-aided Tool for Precision i Land Management DNDC Reveals the mechanisms that drive ecosystem change by tracking movement of chemical elements between life and its environment DNDC allows users to construct scenarios that benefit land managers and enhance environmental protection. DNDC can stimulate innovation and information sharing relevant to creating better landscape management for people and nature

8

9 N inputs N HNO 3, etc N 2 N 2 O, N 2, NO x gas losses Plant N NH 4 + N distribution NH 4 NO - 3 Microbial N Soil N N losses leaching

10 NO x Atmosphere Ozone effects Particulate Matter effects Stratospheric effects N2O Greenhouse effects N2O NHx Energy production NOx NH3 NOy Food production People (food; fiber) Terrestrial Ecosystems NHx Norganic Crop Groundwater effects Agroecosystem effects Soil Animal NO3 Surface water effects Forests & Grasslands effects Plant Soil NHx NOy Coastal effects Aquatic Ecosystems Indicates denitrification potential N2O (aquatic) N2O (terrestrial) Ocean effects Galloway et al.,

11 ecological drivers The DNDC Model Climate Soil Vegetation Human activity annual average temp. soil temp profile potential evapotrans. LAI-regulated albedo evap. trans. soil moist profile Soil climate O 2 diffusion soil Eh profile vertical water flow O 2 use water demand daily growth litter water uptake N-demand CO 2 very labile labile resistant water stress N-uptake grain NH 4 + stem root respiration s roots DOC Plant growth Decomposition effect of temperature and moisture on decomposition microbes labile resistant humads labile resistant passive humus soil environmental factors Temperature Moisture ph Eh Substrates: NH 4+, NO 3-, DOC NO NO 2 - nitrate denitrifier DOC DOC nitrifiers NH 4 + soil Eh CH4 production NO - NH 3 clay- N 3 2 O nitrite NH + aerenchyma CH 4 oxidation denitrifier 4 NO - 3 N 2 O NO N 2 N NH 3 DOC 2 O CH 4 transport Denitrification denitrifier Nitrification Fermentation CH 4

12 DNDC bridges between inputs and outputs INPUT PROCESSES OUTPUT Climate - Temperature - Precipitation - N deposition Used by soil microbes Emissions of N2O, NO, N2, CH4 and CO2 Soil properties - Texture - Organic matter - Bulk density - ph DNDC 1. Soil water movement 2. Plant-soil C dynamics 3. N transformation Availability of water, NH4, NO3, and DOC Competition N leaching Management - Crop rotation - Tillage - Fertilization - Manure use - Irrigation - Grazing Used by plants Growth of crop biomass

13 DNDC Simulating carbon in soils and ecosystems

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16 Model performance can be tested based on short- or long-term observations on C fluxes

17 DNDC Simulating nitrogen in soils and ecosystems

18 N2O Fluxes from a Organic Soil at Glades, Florida, N2O flux, g N/ha /day Day Field Model

19 Observed and Modeled N 2 O and NO Emissions from a Spruce Stand at Hoglwald Forest in Germany in N 2 O NO

20 Observed and DNDC-Modeled N2O Fluxes from Agricultural Soils in the U.S., Canada, the U.K., Germany, New Zealand, China, Japan, and Costa Rica 1000 R 2 = 0.84 Modeled N2O flux, kg N/ /ha/year Observed N2O flux, kg N/ha/year

21 Sensitivity of N 2 O flux to environmental factors

22 Goal: Predicting impacts of management alternatives on C and N dynamics in terrestrial ecosystems A change in management Climate Vegetation Soil Other management Yield N leaching C storage Trace gas

23 A scenario of best management practices was composed with (1) no-till, (1) increased depth of fertilizer application, (3) three splits of fertilizer application, and (4) non-legume cover crop.

24 Impacts of conventional tillage (CT), no-till (NT) and best management practices (BMP) for a crop field at Story County, Iowa CT NT BMP Unit Fertilizer use kg N/ha Crop pyield kg C/ha dsoc kg C/ha N leaching kg N/ha N2O kg N/ha

25 Summary Precision management of fertilizer use can provide significant reductions in nitrous oxide emissions while maintaining i i crop yields. Co-benefits can include reductions in water pollution that results from leaching of nitrate. Soil carbon and nitrogen must be treated as an integrated management issue to achieve maximum benefits. The DNDC precision management tool can also be applied to the management of timber, pastures, rice, and other landscapes. A market-based fertilizer reduction program could offer a fast-track approach to reductions in nitrous oxide emissions and nitrate pollution.

26 Summary Uncertainties, unclear signals, and long time scales are characteristic of climate, water, and ecosystem interactions. We argue that there is a strong rationale for enhanced policy flexibility and innovation using a portfolio of reactive, adaptive, and precautionary land management strategies.

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