Dairy Market Data. Philipp Hildebrandt. A German Perspective. Brussels, September 11 th 2018

Transcription

1 Dairy Market Data A German Perspective Philipp Hildebrandt Brussels, September 11 th 2018

2 Deutsches Milchkontor GmbH

3 We are talking about 7,500 Farmers Germany s largest dairy cooperative.

4 We are talking about 8.1 bn. kg raw milk

5

6 Vorlage als Reiter Informationen zur xx We are a part of the corporate strategy with concentrated expertise Information, dialogue, training, simulations, and forecasts on markets, competition, trends for strategic business management. Exchange with DMK Groups agriculture, commodity control, processing, sales, customers as well as associations & media. Price Risk Management by developing strategies to hedge dairy products price volatility on the commodity exchange for our shareholders (i.e. farmers).

7 Milk Price Germany EU-28

8 World Milk Supply

9

10 General Economic Data

11 General Economic Data Commodity Prices Currency Exchange Crude Oil EUR / USD Economic Framework Economy Price Index BIP Growth Consumer Prices Unemployment Rate Commodity Price Index Food Price Index

12 Dairy Farming Data

13 Supply Quantity Milk Fat & Protein EU28 Top 10 World Price Slaughter Region Quality, Utilization World Cows Prices Supply Stock Grain & Feed Yield & Prices Farm Economics Weather German Farm Accountancy Network Feed Margin Operating Branch Analysis Effect Analysis

14 Dairy, Retail & Consumer Data

15 Supply WMP, SMP Whey Preserved Milk EU28 Casein, Lactose Top 10 World Condensed Milk World Production & Prices Spot Notation Fresh Retail Milk Buttermilk, Sour Milk, Joghurt Butter, AMF Cheese Cream Standard Campaigns Gouda Edam Emmental Cheddar

16 Demand Demand Export Import EU PG s Destinations NZ, USA, AUS 152 PG s Destinations Asia, Africa, America Consumer EU28 Behavior Trends Intervention BUT SMP BUT Stocks Private BUT SMP Cheese USA SMP Cheese

17 Price Indicators EEX BUT, SMP, WY, LM Exchange NZX Prices Auction CME GDT Trade Trade Value DG Agri Forecast FAO Consulting

18 Data Sources EU, DG Agri EuroStat MilkMO, FMPT National International Public Research FAO, USDA, UN, Comtrade, Stat. BA, BLE, Thünen, ife, KTBL, Data Sources Associations EDA, ZMB, MIV, EuroCom. Media Press Business Reports Service AMI IFCN, IFE, GfK, ZMP CLAL, GTA, AgriHQ, GIRA News Agencies, Banks,

19 Market transparency for each section Farmer Dairy Company Retail & Industry Consumer Supply Trade

20 Experiences with the current situation

21 Highest degree of market transparency worldwide, equal access, covering wide product range, focus on farmer & manufacturer Facilitates an ex post understanding & assessment of the market basics for own market monitoring and to identify market signals Offers a more efficient use - to interlink data for new and own insights & indices DG Agri made a significant progress in mapping the market (EU28 & World) as well as in communication (e.g. Dashboards)

22 Aspirations Increased timing, standardization & reliability of current data Target group orientation (customized dashboards e.g. comext) Exploiting current data with appropriate indicators, include trend & prognosis Covering all member states and main external markets with focus on key products Reduce intransparency in consumption data out of existing national sources; think of news alerts Enhancing the ability to understand and to apply current data more efficiently by utilization, transmission & education

23 Interlinked Data, e.g.

24 Challenges X More resp. new data does not necessarily increase market understanding & comparability More detail may impede transparency, causes muddling and reduced competition, resembles collusion High burden and serious challenge for operators; initial & running processes & costs Focus on transfer prices result in maximum prices, no comparability but puts a downward pressure on prices and farmer s income Dairy sector involves aspects that are not captured by market data; risk of delayed and unrealistic data Benefit for third country traders - whereas farmers, cooperatives, and manufacturers could be penalized

25 Thank you!