The Future of Food from the Sea
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- Madison Erica Henry
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1 The Future of Food from the Sea Steve Gaines Bren School of Environmental Science & Mgmt
2
3 Global Demand for Animal Protein 4
4 Land Area
5 Population Size
6 Population 2050
7 Per Capita Income vs % Protein from Meat
8 Growth in Wealth
9 Global Demand for Animal Protein How will this growth be met? ) Growth by
10 1 B hectares Cleared for Agriculture Food production area as fraction of total cropland 3 G tons CO2/yr Bad Options on Land Biodiversity, GHG, Nutrient loading challenges - Tilman et al. 2011
11 Energy Production Livestock Transportation Fossil Fuel Retrieval Agriculture Residential Manufacturing Land Use Waste Disposal Sources of Greenhouse Gases
12 300" Global#Warming#Poten6al#for#Meat#and#Seafood# KG#of#CO2#per#KG#of#Protein# 250" 200" 150" 100" 50" 0" Fed"Finfish"(net"pen)" Fed"Finfish"(pond)" Fed"Finfish"(land)" Fed"Invertebrates" Unfed" Pigmeat" Poultry" MuBon"&"Goat" Beef" "Trapping" Nets" Longlining" Puse"Seining" Trawling" Cost Depends on What is Consumed
13 Feed 9% 5% Burps 21% 39% Enteric fermentation Manure Feed Feces Land-use change Energy and post-farm 26% The Global Warming Pie Emissions from Everywhere
14 KG#of#CO2#per#KG#of#Protein# 300" 250" 200" 150" 100" 50" Global#Warming#Poten6al#for#Meat#and#Seafood# Fisheries 0" Fed"Finfish"(net"pen)" Fed"Finfish"(pond)" Fed"Finfish"(land)" Fed"Invertebrates" Unfed" Pigmeat" Poultry" MuBon"&"Goat" Beef" "Trapping" Nets" Longlining" Puse"Seining" Trawling" Oceans have Lower GHG Costs
15 Option 1: Fix Fisheries
16 % Fisheries with Good Harvest Where We are Today Costello et al. in review
17 % Fisheries with Good Harvest 8 MMT of Filets Alternative Futures 300 MMT more Fish $40 B more Profits
18 14 Change in Catch (MMT) Change Annual Profit ($ Billion) MSY (MMT, of conservation concern) China Thailand Malaysia Viet Nam S. Korea Taiwan Indonesia India Japan Philippines Change in Annual Profit ($ Billion) 0 A Change in Biomass (MMT) Projections for Every Fishing Country
19 Global Demand for Animal Protein ) Growth by 2050 Fix Fisheries 20
20 KG#of#CO2#per#KG#of#Protein# 300" 250" 200" 150" 100" 50" Global#Warming#Poten6al#for#Meat#and#Seafood# Option 2 Aquaculture 0" Fed"Finfish"(net"pen)" Fed"Finfish"(pond)" Fed"Finfish"(land)" Fed"Invertebrates" Unfed" Pigmeat" Poultry" MuBon"&"Goat" Beef" "Trapping" Nets" Longlining" Puse"Seining" Trawling" Oceans have Lower GHG Costs
21 A Thought Experiment What are the Environmental Costs? ) Growth by
22 8 Gigatons CO2 Added Dairy Pigmeat Poultry Mutton & Goat Beef Rice Eggs Fish Aquaculture Soybean Brown Kelp Wheat Greenhouse Gas Emissions Unfed Aquaculture Cost of Meeting 2050 Demand
23 Km3 Water Eggs Poultry Dairy Rice Wheat Mutton & Goat Beef Pigmeat Soybean Fish Aquaculture Brown Kelp Water Used Unfed Aquaculture Cost of Meeting 2050 Demand
24 1.4x x10 +7 Km2 Added 1.0x x x x x Poultry Dairy Pigmeat Beef Mutton & Goat Wheat Rice Eggs Fish Aquaculture Soybean Area Used Unfed Aquaculture Cost of Meeting 2050 Demand
25 Thought Experiment Area needed by 2050
26 75% of South America Thought Experiment Area needed by 2050
27 95% of NZ 75% of South America Thought Experiment Area needed by 2050
28 Thought Experiment #2 Greenhouse Warming Potential (Gigatons CO2 Equiv) by 2050
29 72% of China 132% of USA Thought Experiment #2 Greenhouse Warming Potential (Gigatons CO2 Equiv) by 2050
30 72% of China 132% of USA 95% of Australia Thought Experiment #2 Greenhouse Warming Potential (Gigatons CO2 Equiv) by 2050
31 Thought Experiment #3 Freshwater
32 Lake Huron Thought Experiment #3 Freshwater
33 Lake Huron Thought Experiment #3 Freshwater
34 Take Away SURF >>> TURF Shifting Future Diets to More Seafood Behavior Change Remove Constraints New Policies
35 1.4x x10 +7 Km2 Added 1.0x x x x10 +6 Current Global Average Diet 2.0x Poultry Dairy Pigmeat Beef Mutton & Goat Soybean Wheat Rice Eggs Fish Aquaculture Unfed Aquaculture Area Used Cost of Meeting 2050 Demand
36 Diet Preferences Are Favorable
37 Limits on Fishmeal Emerging Feeds Constraints on Fed Aquaculture Feed
38 New Policies Regulatory reform, Carbon Tax
39
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