Idaho Wheat Commission Cereal Schools. January 28, 2016

Transcription

1 Idaho Wheat Commission Cereal Schools January 28, 2016

2 About the Wheat Commission 2016 Supply Picture Segregating for Premium Price Protecting our Dams Maintaining Soft White Quality

3 About the Idaho Wheat Commission Self-governing state agency created in 1959 Funded by a $0.035 assessment Board of five wheat producers

4 Idaho Wheat Highlights Domestic 44.9 mm bu. Export 43.1 mm bu.

5 Idaho Wheat in Overseas Products

6 Wheat-Buying Teams Visit Idaho in 2015 Japan Philippines Japan Taiwan

7 MMT Top 10 Customers for U.S. Wheat 5-year average

8 Domestic Products Using Idaho Wheat

9 IWC FY 2016 Budget Allocation IWC FY2016 Approved Budget $3,379,443 2% 1% 23% 22% 52% Market Development Research Education & Communications Office Operations Capital Outlay

10 IWC FY 2016 Budget Ten Largest Budget Items University of Idaho $1,336,645 Wheat Variety Research $589,887 Pest & Disease Research $115,194 Production Practices Research $223,945 Wheat Quality Lab $126,862 Idaho Grain Producers Association $405,500 U.S. Wheat Associates $320,000 IWC Salaries & Benefits $277,000 Equipment and Infrastructure $200,000 Wheat Marketing Center $173,206 National Association of Wheat Growers $ 88,000 Other Research $ 75,000

11 Market Headwinds 1) Plentiful Global Supplies 2) Cheap Ocean Freight 3) Strong U.S. Dollar

12 MMT World Ending Stocks /06 07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 Historical 5 Majors Black Sea China Other Historical Five Major Exporters include U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina and EU-27. Black Sea includes Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan.

13 MMT Global Ending Stocks and Price /88 91/92 95/96 99/00 03/04 07/08 11/12 15/16 Historical 5 Majors Black Sea Rest of World HRW price

14 Strength of U.S. Dollar

15 MMT World Wheat Imports /88 91/92 95/96 99/00 03/04 07/08 11/12 15/16 "Other" China FSU EU-27 Trend in other importers denoted ( )

16 MMT World Production and Use /07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 Production Use

17 percent protein Protein Segregation Creates Value SW 2015 crop average protein 10.9% SW 5-year crop average protein 10.0% Export demand is mostly 10.5% and below Source: USW Crop Quality Report

18 Protein Specs For Soft White Egypt Min 9.5 SW Yemen Min 9.5 SW Thailand Max 10.8 SW Max 10.8 WW Max 10.5 SW Max 10.5 WW Min 10.0 WW Korea Max 10.5 SW Max 10.0 SW Max 8.5 SW Indonesia Max 10.5 SW Ave 10.0 SW Max 10.0 SW Max 9.5 SW Min 9.5 SW Min 9.0 SW Japan Max 10.5 WW Taiwan Max 10.5 SW Philippines Ave 11.0 SW Max 11.0 SW Max 10.8 SW Ave 10.5 SW Max 10.5 SW Min 9.5 SW Guatemala Max 11.0 SW Max 10.5 SW Min 9.0 SW Chile Min 9.5 SW

19 % of US Exports 90 US Wheat Export Trade Increases 1985 to 2014 Latin America, E & SE Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa (excluding China) % % 0 Latin America Sub Saharan Africa E & SE Asia

20 Distribution of (91%) US Wheat Exports in Sub. Cont. 7% China 13% E & SE Asia 20% Latin Am. 10% Europe 6% Mid-East & N. Africa 30% Sub S. Africa 5%

21 Distribution of (98%) US Wheat Exports in 2013/14 TPP Asia incl. China 40% Europe & Sub S. Africa 18% Latin Am. 40%

22 TPP: Trans-Pacific Partnership Countries Japan Canada United States Vietnam Malaysia Brunei Singapore Australia New Zealand Mexico Peru Chile

23 Non-Scientific Claims About Eating Wheat Wheat causes all types of health problems Grains are not needed for good nutrition Humans have not evolved to eat grains Wheat is GMO Modern wheat is toxic

24 Recent Assaults on Wheat in Your Diet Paleolithic Diet Grain Brain Scarsdale Diet Wheat Belly Book The Zone

25 Columbia/Snake River Closure Mid-December 2016 to Mid-March 2017 December 12, 2016 to March 20, 2017 (14 Weeks)

26 WHEAT #1 in U.S. exports SOYBEANS #2 in U.S. exports Graphic: Port of Portland

27 Snake River dams The Claims Patagonia and others targeting Snake River dams Ads and documentary lump Snake River projects with dams which had no fish passage, no navigation, and almost no hydropower production Continue to cite flawed study to support their case

28 Snake River dams The Movie

29 Snake River dams The Flotilla

30 Snake River dams The Press

31 Snake River dams The Facts The dams do not block access for fish, as was the case with the Condit, Elwha, and Glines Canyon dams The Snake River dams have state of the art fish passage which allows over 97% of juveniles to safely migrate past each project The sockeye, fall chinook, and coho 2014 returns were record or near-record runs, including Snake River stocks The total potential energy output of the Snake River dams provides enough clean, renewable, carbon free energy to power 1.87 million homes

32 Snake River dams and Wheat Seven major grain export facilities Nearly 10% of all U.S. wheat travels through the Snake River dams Over 17% of all U.S. wheat travels by barge on the inland Columbia/Snake

33 What about our fish? Growing emphasis on collaboration to help salmon, rather than litigation Current plan for salmon: o Supported by three states Washington, Idaho, Montana o Supported by seven tribal partners o Supported by navigation, utility, and irrigation stakeholders

34 What about our fish? Juvenile survival at the dams now averages 97% NOAA Fisheries - responsible for protection of listed salmon - says that survival rates through the hydro system are now approaching levels seen in rivers without dams Bonneville Power Administration

35 What about our fish? Today, there are more fish in the Columbia River than at any time since the first dam was built at Bonneville in 1938 In 2014, over 2.5 million adult salmon and steelhead passed Bonneville Dam, setting new overall record levels since counts began in Of the fish returning in 2014, the sockeye, fall chinook, and coho were record or near-record runs, including the Snake River stocks. Bonneville Power Administration

36 Support by Wheat Growers Important Other Vehicles & other equipment Manufactured goods Petroleum products Other food/farm products Other crude materials Forest products Chemicals & fertilizers Soybeans & oilseeds Wheat Columbia River tonnage ,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000 12,000,000 14,000,000 16,000,000

37 Snake River dams Resources PNWA working to provide accurate information to decision makers and the public Learn more at:

38 Quality Brochure Updated Annually

39 Thank You!