Levels & trends in agricultural spending & investment

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1 Preliminary estimates of Levels & trends in agricultural spending & investment background work for The State of Food & Agriculture 2012 Sarah K. Lowder Economist Agricultural Development Economics Division, ESA

2 Contents of presentation Key messages of the report regarding levels and trends in Agricultural Capital stock (FAOSTAT & National Accounts) Government expenditures on Agricultural R & D (IFPRI ASTI) Government expenditures on Agriculture (IFPRI SPEED) Official development assistance to Agriculture(OECD CRS) Foreign direct investment in Agriculture(UNCTAD) Relative size of various types of investment Your advice

3 Trillion USD Agricultural Development Economics Division Capital Stock (FAO) inventories-based estimates On-farm agricultural capital stock has increased over time... Figure 1: Agricultural capital stock, constant 2005 dollars Low and middle-income countries High income countries Source: Authors calculations using FAO, 2011.

4 Capital Stock (FAO) inventories-based estimates Figure 2: Rates of growth in agricultural capital stock, 1980s Source: Authors calculations using FAO, But growth has slowed since the 1980s both globally and in the lowand middle-income countries. In high income countries the rate of change has become negative (probably due to underreporting and other data issues).

5 Capital Stock (FAO) inventories-based estimates The trend has varied among the low and middle income country regional groupings Figure 3: Rates of growth in agricultural capital stock, 1980s Source: Authors calculations using FAO, 2011.

6 Capital Stock (FAO) inventories-based estimates Table 1: Level and growth of agricultural capital stock *ECA annual rate of growth for Region Average ACS per person employed in agriculture, (USD 2005 constant) Compounded annual rate of growth (based on USD 2005 constant), Agricultural capital stock Population active in agriculture ACS per person active in agriculture World 4, High-income countries 63, Low & middle-income countries 2, East Asia and the Pacific 1, Of which: China EAP excluding China 2, Europe and Central Asia* 18, Latin America & Caribbean 15, Middle East and North Africa 9, South Asia 1, Of which: India South Asia excluding India 4, Sub-Saharan Africa 2, Source: Authors calculations using FAO, ACS per ag worker has decreased in the low- and middleincome regions since 1980 This is due to decreases in Sub- Saharan Africa and parts of South Asia, regions which already suffer from low capital-labour ratios.

7 Capital Stock (FAO) inventories-based estimates ACS per worker was lowest in EAP, followed by South Asia and Sub- Saharan Africa; it has not increased in those regions. It is by far the largest in ECA and LAC, with MENA also showing large per capita levels of ACS; it is in these regions that it has increased. Figure 4: Levels of Agricultural Capital Stock per agricultural worker, Source: Author s calculations using FAO, 2011.

8 Government Expenditures on Agricultural R & D Table 2. Public agricultural R&D spending, 1981, 1991 & As share of agricultural GDP Low and middle income countries (108) 54% 54% 55% High income (32) 153% 211% 237% Total (140) 91% 98% 97% Per ag worker Subtotal (108) High income (32) Total (140) Note: Table excludes 31 Eastern European and former Soviet Union states, because of data unavailability. Low and middle income regions spend less than high income countries in absolute terms. The difference is even more pronounced when we consider per capita terms or as a share of agricultural GDP. Sources: Beintema and Stads (2010), China from Chen, Zang and Flaherty (2011); Sub- Saharan Africa from Beintema and Stads AgGDP from World Bank (various years)

9 Million 2005 PPP dollars Agricultural Development Economics Division Government Expenditures on Agricultural R & D Figure 5: Levels of government spending on agricultural R & D, In all low and middle 4,500 income country regions 4,000 government spending 3,500 on Ag R & D increased 3,000 2,500 (increase was slight in S Asia, excluding India) 2,000 1,500 1, Sub-Saharan Africa East Asia & Pacific, minus China China Latin America & Caribbean South Asia, minus India India Sources: Beintema and Stads (2010), China from Chen, Zang and Flaherty (2011); Sub-Saharan Africa from Beintema and Stads AgGDP from World Bank (various years)

10 Government Expenditures on Agriculture For 67 countries, agricultural spending has increased in total levels and per worker, but the share has declined. Figure 6: Levels of government spending on agriculture, Source: Authors calculations using IFPRI, Statistics of Public Expenditure for Economic Development (SPEED)

11 Government Expenditures on Agriculture (cont d) Agricultural spending per person active in agriculture has increased in all low and middle income regions except SSA. Table 3: Levels and per capita measure of agricultural expenditure (low and middle income countries) Region Total agriculture expenditure Expenditure on agriculture per worker (USD (2005 USD PPP, billion) 2005 PPP) East Asia and Pacific (8) Europe and Central Asia (9)* * Latin America & the Caribbean (11) Middle East and North Africa (7) South Asia (7) Sub-saharan Africa (12) country total Source: Authors calculations using IFPRI, Statistics of Public Expenditure for Economic Development (SPEED)

12 Growth in ACS per worker, (%) Figure : Agricultural expenditure and growth in ACS per worker, Agricultural Development Economics Division Government Expenditures on Agriculture (cont d) Figure 7: Growth in ACS per worker and agricultural expenditure per agricultural worker, GHA UGA BGD MMR ZWE ETH NPL PAK MWI NGA PNG IND BRA GTM CHN IDN KGZ MDA TURMDV EGY DOM LKA PHL FJI URY SLV THA MAR PAN MEX ARG LSO BTN SWZ IRN AZE VUT KAZ YEMCRI VCT RUS SYR ROU MUS JORTUN LTU BLR Countries with higher levels of agricultural expenditures per worker have seen more significant increases in ACS per worker. BOL ZMB -2 KEN BWA Agricultural expenditure per worker, average (USD PPP log) Source: Authors calculations using FAO, 2011 and IFPRI, Statistics of Public Expenditure for Economic Development (SPEED)

13 Government Expenditures on Agriculture (cont d) The agricultural share of public expenditure has decreased; this decrease often coincides with the decline of the sector in the economy. Table 4: Agricultural shares of and AOI of government expenditures (low and middle income countries) Regions Share in Government expenditure Agricultural orientation index of public expenditure Source: Authors calculations using IFPRI, Statistics of Public Expenditure for Economic Development (SPEED) East Asia and Pacific (8) 11% 9% 7% 7% Europe and Central Asia (9)* 0% 1% 3% 2% Latin America & the Caribbean (11) 7% 4% 4% 2% Middle East and North Africa (7) 5% 5% 4% 3% South Asia (7) 7% 7% 5% 5% Sub-saharan Africa (12) 6% 6% 4% 4% country average 7% 5% 5% 4%

14 Official Development Assistance to Agriculture Levels of ODA commitments to agriculture were largest during the 1980s. They decreased in the 1990s, increased sharply in recent years (through 2009), but remain lower than in 1980s. ODA per ag worker, the ag share of ODA and AOI for ODA all show similar trends at the global level. Figure 8: Levels of ODA to agriculture, by region, Source: Authors calculations using OECD, CRS.

15 Foreign Direct Investment (UNCTAD) Figure 9: FDI inflows to the food, beverage and tobacco sector as well as to Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, 1980 to 2008 (billion USD current prices) Foreign direct investments in agriculture have increased rapidly in the most recent years, but remain of marginal importance as a contributor to total agricultural investments. Furthermore, our analysis suggests that the increase may be less than previously reported. Source: Authors calculations using UNCTAD, 2011.

16 Relative size of investments Most investment in agriculture is financed from private, domestic resources. ODA and probably FDI are the smallest sources of investment, with government investment being much larger and private investment being by far the largest. Figure 10: Relative size of private, governmental, ODA and foreign direct investments in agriculture in 54 low and middle income countries (billions constant 2005 dollars), Private Gov't ODA FDI?* Note: * For this country grouping we can not estimate FDI, but judging from available data for other countries it would likely be very small. Source: Authors calculations using FAO, 2011; IFPRI, 2010;OECD, 2010 and UNCTAD,

17 Billions of dollars Private Gov't ODA Private Gov't ODA Private Gov't ODA Private Gov't ODA Private Gov't ODA Private Gov't ODA Private Gov't ODA Agricultural Development Economics Division Relative size of investments This result does, however, vary somewhat among country groupings. Figure 11: Relative size of private, governmental and foreign donor investments in agriculture (billions constant 2005 dollars), by country grouping, See in particular EAP, HI and SSA EAP (9) ECA (9) HI (12) LAC (11) MENA (7) S. Asia (7) SSA (11) Source: Authors calculations using FAO, 2011; IFPRI, 2010 and OECD, 2010.

18 Your advice Do the following messages make sense? Are they helpful for FAO work? In low and middle income countries as a whole domestic private investment is larger than government investment in agriculture, ODA invested is very small in comparison and FDI is likely to be the smallest source of investment There is inter-regional variation: Government investment is far smaller than private investment in the 11 SSA countries; ODA is nearly at the level of government investment However this is not the case for EAP where government investment is almost as large as private investment In the HI countries (12) we see that government investment is larger than private investment

19 Thank you!

20 Supplementary slides

21 Table 1: Comparison among key international datasets on foreign, domestic, private and public spending on agriculture Domestic Foreign Public Private Government Expenditures Official Development Foreign Direct Investment Assistance (ODA) IFPRI SPEED OECD CRS UNCTAD Financial Times FDI Markets Average annual amount low & middle income 160 billion ( ) 7 billion ( ) 3 billion ( ) 7 billion ( ) high income countries na na 1.5 billion ( ) 10 billion ( ) Global trend levels Increase from Increased from 1980 to At peak in 1980s; decreased during 90s & increased in recent years. Remains lower than in the 80s. shares Decreased from 1980 to per economically active in Increased from 1980 to agriculture agricultural orientation index Neither increased not decreased Definition of sector Same as above. Decreased since 1980s Increased from 1990 to 2007; largely as result of increase in number of countries reporting. Increased from Agriculture, forestry & fisheries Agriculture, forestry & fisheries Agriculture, Forestry, Fisheries & Hunting Increased from Q1 & Q Primary agriculture as well as food processing and business services. Time span Country coverage low & middle income in most recent years destination countries high income countries na na 36 in most recent years destination countries Monetary units Constant 2005 dollars, PPP Constant 2005 dollars Current US Dollars Current US Dollars

22 Definition of agricultural capital stock (ACS) ACS data include crops & animal husbandry. They exclude forestry & fisheries. Four types of capital are included: Land Development Livestock Machinery & (Fixed assets & inventory) equipment Structures for livestock Arable land Cattle and buffalo Tractors Animals Permanent crop land Sheep Harvesters Poultry Irrigated land Goats Milking machines Plantation crops Pigs Hand tools Horse Camels Mules Poultry

23 Functional classification of government expenditures on agriculture Administration of agricultural affairs Conservation, reclamation or expansion of arable land Agrarian reform and land settlement Supervision and regulation of the agricultural industry Construction or operation of flood control, irrigation and drainage systems Efforts to stabilize or improve farm prices and incomes Extension services or veterinary, pest control, crop inspection and crop grading services Production and dissemination of general information, technical documentation and statistics on agricultural affairs and services Compensation, grants, loans or subsidies to farmers in connection with agricultural activities, including allowing land to remain uncultivated Source: (IMF, 2002; IFPRI, 2010)

24 Economic classification of public expenditures Expenses 1. Compensation of employees 2. Subsidies 3. Social benefits 4. Use of goods and services 5. Interest 6. Grants 7. Consumption of fixed capital 8. Other Categories of non-financial assets ( capital ) Fixed assets a) Buildings and structures b) Machinery and equipment c) Other fixed assets Inventories a) Strategic stocks b) Other inventories Non-produced assets a) Land b) Subsoil assets c) Other naturally occurring assets d) Intangible nonproduced assets Valuables

25 Capital share of government expenditures on agriculture Country (Source study) Capital share of agricultural expenditures Year Ghana 53% 2007 Kenya 28% Mozambique 84% 2007 Nigeria 36% 2005 Tanzania 9% Uganda 22% Zambia 24% 2000 Laos 84% Philippines 26% 2005 Vietnam 75% early 2000s Honduras 66% 2006 Simple average 46% Sources: Public expenditure reviews mainly authored by or for the World Bank.

26 ODA to agriculture by project category Agricultural crops & livestock Forestry Fisheries policy & administrative management policy & administrative management policy & administrative management agricultural development forestry development fisheries development land resources fuelwood/charcoal water resources inputs food crop production industrial crops/export crops livestock agrarian reform agricultural alternative development extension education/training education/training education/training research research research agricultural services services services plant & post-harvest protection & pest control financial services cooperatives livestock/veterinary services Source: OECD, 2010

27 Flow : Official Development Assistance Sector: 310: III.1. Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing Amount: Commitments (current USD millions) Purpose code ALL : Agricultural policy and administrative management : Agricultural development : Agricultural land resources : Agricultural water resources : Agricultural inputs : Food crop production : Industrial crops/export crops : Livestock : Agrarian reform : Agricultural alternative development : Agricultural extension : Agricultural education/training : Agricultural research : Agricultural services : Plant and post-harvest protection and pest control : Agricultural financial services : Agricultural co-operatives : Livestock/veterinary services : Forestry policy and administrative management : Forestry development : Fuelwood/charcoal : Forestry education/training : Forestry research : Forestry services : Fishing policy and administrative management : Fishery development : Fishery education/training : Fishery research : Fishery services ODA to agriculture by project category

28 FDI to agriculture and food and beverages (correspond to ISIC Revision 3) Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting Agriculture, hunting and related service activities Growing of crops, market gardening and horticulture Farming of animals Mixed farming (growing crops combined with farming livestock) Agricultural and animal husbandry service activities, except veterinary activities Hunting, trapping and game propagation including related service activities Forestry, logging and related service activities Fishing, operation of fish hatcheries and fish farms; service activities Food and beverages, including tobacco Production, processing and preservation of meat, fish, fruit, vegetables, oils and fats Manufacture of dairy products grain mill products, starches and starch products, and prepared animal feeds other food products beverages tobacco products Source: UNCTAD World Investment Report

29 ISIC Rev. 3

30 Figure ODA Commitments to agriculture per person active in agriculture by region, Agricultural Development Economics Division Ratio Official Development Assistance to Agriculture (OECD) Shares and AOI show similar trends, except the increasing trend shown by 54 countries in recent years holds for SSA and MENA, but not the other regions Figure : Agricultural Share of ODA by region, Figure : AOI by region, Asia ECA LAC MENA 2 1 SSA World * ECA Source: Authors calculations based on OECD, CRS database.

31 Figure ODA Commitments to agriculture per person active in agriculture by region, Agricultural Development Economics Division Official Development Assistance to Agriculture (OECD) Replace with global infoper capita trend is the same as that of levels, in all regions except E Asia * ECA Source: Authors calculations based on OECD, CRS database.

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