Crop responses to temperature t and precipitation at high latitudes

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Harvey Montgomery
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1 Crop responses to temperature t and precipitation at high latitudes Pirjo Peltonen-Sainio MTT Agrifood Research Finland International Symposium on Climate Change and Adaptation Options in Agriculture

2 Full heading and co-authors Crop responses to temperature and precipitation according to long-term multi-location location trials at high latitudes with reference to climate change Pirjo Peltonen-Sainio, Lauri Jauhiainen and Kaija Hakala, MTT Agrifood Research Finland

3 North Canada Alaska Greenland North Pole Siberia 70 N 60 N Important producer at 60 N Climate warming projected to proceed fast Urgent need for adaptation strategies and measures Jaana Nissi/MTT Source: Peltonen-Sainio P, Rajala A, Känkänen H & Hakala K Improving Farming Systems in Northern European Conditions.

4 Impacts on Nordic crop production? o Balancing between opportunities and challenges

5 Opportunities and challenges Not only thermal but also physiologically effective part of the growing season will prolong Yield potential and biomass production will be markedly enhanced

6 Challenge Achieved precipitation compared required (%) Lack of precipitation at early growth stages Means often at the most critical phase of yield determination 30 years data from Finnish Meteorological Institute

7 Main yield determination ti phase Window accumulated temperature sum from sowings (+5 C as base temperature)? Peltonen-Sainio P. & Rajala A Viljojen kasvun ABC.

of precipitation likely becomes less even Less at early growth stages More towards

8 Challenge Precipitation since early August till harvest (mm) Abundant precipitation at the end of the growing season Andinfuture - though hard to project - distribution of precipitation likely becomes less even Less at early growth stages More towards the end of the season Heavy showers 30 years data from Finnish Meteorological Institute

9 Challenge Precipitation (mm) per potential biomass (tons) Crop Spring barley Spring oat Spring wheat Spring turnip rape Spring oilseed rape Consensus of 19 climatic models and CNRM and ECHAM5-models, A2-scenario MTT Official Variety Trials Finnish Meteorological Institute Source: Peltonen-Sainio P, Jauhiainen L, Hakala K & Ruosteenoja K, Growth duration and phasing, distribution of precipitation and yield capacity of spring cereals and rapeseed in changing climate at high latitudes.

10 Opportunities or challenges? Not only thermal but also physiologically effective part of the growing season will prolong Yield potential and biomass production will be markedly enhanced Drought problems will likely become more severe

11 Opportunities or challenges? Success of present cultivars? Crop and trait Change P-value Consensus of 19 climatic Spring barley: Yield (kg ha -1 ) Grains m < Single grain weight (mg) <0.01 Spring oat: Yield (kg ha -1 ) Grains m Single grain weight (mg) Dry pea: Yield (kg ha -1 ) Seeds m Single seed weight (mg) <0.01 No effect on spring and winter wheat, winter rye, spring rapeseed models, A2-scenario MTT Official variety trials Finnish Meteorological Institute No CO 2 effect

12 Opportunities or challenges? Success of present cultivars? Growth duration (d) Change P-value Spring barley <0.001 Spring oat <0.001 Spring wheat < Winter wheat <0.001 Winter rye <0.001 Spring turnip rape < Spring oilseed rape <0.001 Dry pea <0.01 Consensus of 19 climatic models, A2-scenario MTT Official variety trials Finnish Meteorological Institute

13 Opportunities or challenges? Success of present cultivars? Pre-head/Post-head (d/d) Change P-value Spring barley Spring oat Spring wheat Winter wheat Winter rye Consensus of 19 climatic models, A2-scenario MTT Official variety trials Finnish Meteorological Institute Duration of flowering (d) Change P-value Spring turnip rape <0.001 Spring oilseed rape Pea <0.0101

14 Opportunities or challenges? Success of present cultivars? Crop and trait Change P-value Hectolitre weight (kg) Spring barley <0.01 Spring wheat <0.001 Winter wheat Winter rye <0.001 Consensus of 19 climatic models, A2-scenario MTT Official variety trials Finnish Meteorological Institute Protein content (%) Spring oat < Falling number (s) Spring wheat <0.001 Winter wheat <001 <0.01 Winter rye <0.001 Spring turnip rape Oil content (%) Seed chlorophyll (mg kg -1 )* <0.001 Spring oilseed rape Oil yield (kg ha -1 ) * Log (seed chlorophyll content)

15 Spring cereals Crop Precipitation (mm) Daily mean temperature ( C) Length of growing season Spring barley: Mean Response Significance <0.01 <0.001 <0.001 <0.01 < <0.001 <0.01 <0.001 Spring oat: Mean Response Significance <0.01 <0.01 <0.001 <0.01 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 < Spring wheat: Mean Response Significance <0.001 < <0.001 <0.001 Growth period divided into four phases with equal CDD Heading around shift from phase 2 to phase 3, ± 2d days Yield response in each period to +10 mm increase in precipitation, p 1 C elevation in daily mean temperature and one day prolongation in length of each phase

16 Winter cereals Crop Precipitation (mm) Daily mean temperature ( C) Length of growing season Winter wheat: Mean Response Significance 0.02 <0.01 < < <0.01 Winter rye: Mean Response Significance < < <0.01 Growth period divided into four phases with equal CDD Heading around shift from phase 2 to phase 3, ± 2d days Yield response in each period to +10 mm increase in precipitation, p 1 C elevation in daily mean temperature and one day prolongation in length of each phase

17 Rapeseed and pea Crop Precipitation (mm) Daily mean temperature ( C) Length of growing season Spring turnip rape Mean Response Significance <0.001 <0.01 <0.01 Spring oilseed rape Mean Response Significance <0.001 <0.01 <0.001 <0.001 <0.01 <0.001 Dry pea Mean Response Significance <0.01 < Growth period divided into four phases with equal CDD Yield response in each period to +10 mm increase in precipitation, 1 C elevation in daily mean temperature and one day prolongation in length of each phase

18 Opportunities or challenges? Not only thermal but also physiologically effective part of the growing season will prolong Yield potential and biomass production will be markedly enhanced Drought problems will likely become more severe Cultivars need to be changed already till 2025 To truly benefit from prolonged growing season Especially so regarding grain and seed crops with terminal growth

19 Opportunities - Challenges Not only thermal but also physiologically effective part of the growing g season will prolong Yield potential and biomass production will be markedly enhanced Drought problems will likely become more severe Cultivars need to be changed already till 2025 Mild winters only after having several decades of increasingly challenging overwintering conditions Extreme events become more common Environmental risks may increase Risks related to pests and diseases will surely increase

20 Conclusions Global warming has accelerated in recent decades This has also been experienced in Finland Conditions during many of the growing seasons have reflected the future scenarios according to temperature and precipitation conditions, though neglecting elevated CO2 effects. Effects of elevated temperatures were negative for formation of yield potential, but often also for realisation of yield potential. They typically hastened development and growth This likely coincided with reduced water availability. It is essential that breeding programmes produce tailored cultivars adapted to a lengthened growing season and elevated temperatures.

21 Thank you!

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