Cattle Market Situation and Outlook

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1 Cattle Market Situation and Outlook Rebuilding the Cow Herd Series March 28, 2007 Falls City, TX Coordinated by: Dennis Hale-Karnes CEA Ag & Charlie Pfluger-Wilson CEA Ag Prepared and presented by: Larry Falconer Extension Economist

2 Cattle Market Situation and Outlook Discuss beef supply/demand statistics and why that information is relevant to a cow-calf producer who may need to be making investment and marketing decisions related to their herd. Discuss alternative meat supply/demand statistics and why that information is relevant to a cow-calf producer. Short and medium term cattle price outlook.

3 Commercial Cattle Slaughter Million Head Year 2004 slaughter was 32.7 million head, down 8.8% from slaughter at million head was down 1% from 2004 levels slaughter was million head, up 4% from 2005 levels. Through February 2007, commercial slaughter was up 7% from the same period in 2006.

4 Commercial Beef Production Billion Pounds Year 2006 production was billion pounds, up 5.6% from production is projected at billion pounds, up 1.6% from Through February 2007, commercial beef production was up 6% from the same period in 2006, despite a 10 pound reduction (1.3% decrease) in dressed weights.

5 Monthly U.S. Cattle on Feed Million Head Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Avge Fed steer and heifer slaughter normally makes up a little more than 80% of total cattle slaughter.

6 Monthly Placements Into Feedlots Million Head Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Avge

7 July 2007 Corn Futures Prices

8 KSU Commercial Feedlot Cattle Finishing Budget January 2007 Placements (750 lb. steer) Last year the average ration charge was around $ per ton, with this projection based on $ per ton ration cost. Source: Livestock Farm Management Update, January 24, 2007 Prepared By Rodney Jones, Associate Professor / Extension Livestock Production Economist, Kansas State University.

9 June 2007 Live Cattle Futures

10 May 2007 Feeder Cattle Futures

11 Corn Needed to Fill Projected Ethanol Plant Capacity, Billion Bushels AFPC Estimates. DTN reports 120 operational plants in U.S., 76 under construction and 292 planned for construction.

12 U.S. Beef and Veal Trade Billion Pounds Imports Exports 2007 imports projected at 3.28 billion pounds, up 6% from 2006, with 2007 exports forecast at billion pounds, up 16.7% from 2006.

13 U.S. Beef and Veal Imports by Country (1,000 carcass weight) Australia 1,118, , ,614 New Zealand 645, , ,612 Canada 1,062,420 1,092, ,846 Brazil 219, , ,209 Argentina 116, ,356 85,798 Central America 93,991 93,817 83,512 Uruguay 402, , ,403 Mexico 19,495 26,720 40,760 Other Total 3,679,232 3,598,509 3,084,631

14 U.S. Beef and Veal Exports by Country (1,000 carcass weight) Japan 11,609 17,496 51,639 Canada 56, , ,218 Mexico 333, , ,369 South Korea 648 1,077 1,283 Caribbean 25,002 25,226 40,297 China (Taiwan) ,394 67,364 Other 32,991 61,046 85,234 Total 460, ,158 1,152,405

15 Live Cattle Imports (head) Mexico 1,239,531 1,370,476 1,256,404 1,256,996 Canada 512, ,134 1,031,767 Over 700 lbs. 439, , ,182 Immediate slaughter 354, , , lbs. 12,520-85,496 74,329 Total 1,751,896 1,370,611 1,815,538 2,288,763 Through March 17, 2007, feeder cattle imports from Mexico were down 40% from year ago. Through March 17, 2007, feeder cattle imports from Canada were down 6% from year ago, with slaughter cattle imports up 16% from year ago.

16 Commercial Pork Production 25 Billion Pounds Year Production for 2006 was billion pounds, up 2% from Forecast production for 2007 is 21.6 billion pounds, up 2.6% from 2006.

17 Commercial Poultry Production Billion Pounds Year Production for 2006 was billion pounds, up 1.3% from Forecast 2007 production is billion pounds, up 0.6% from 2006.

18 U.S. Cattle and Calves: Number by Class and Calf Crop Through February 2007, cow slaughter was up 16.4% from the same period in Through February 2007, dairy cow slaughter was 16.6% from the same period in Heifer slaughter through February 2007 was up 7.2% for the same period in 2006.

19 Indexed Dollars per Cwt Relationship of Real Calf Prices to January 1 Cattle Inventories Inventory in 1,000 head Amarillo pound steer prices adjusted for inflation.

20 Seasonal Price Pattern for Pound Steers - Amarillo Market Percent of Average January February March April May June July August September October November December 5-Year 10-Year

21 Weekly Price Range for Pound Medium and Large Frame #2 Steers at Beeville $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ /7/2005 2/7/2005 3/7/2005 4/7/2005 5/7/2005 6/7/2005 7/7/2005 8/7/2005 9/7/ /7/ /7/ /7/2005 1/7/2006 2/7/2006 3/7/2006 4/7/2006 5/7/2006 6/7/2006 7/7/2006 8/7/2006 9/7/ /7/ /7/ /7/2006 1/7/2007 2/7/2007

22 ERS-USDA Feeder Steer Price Actual and Forecast (Oklahoma City pound) 04-I 04-II 04-III 04-IV Dollars per Cwt. 05-I 05-II 05-III 05-IV 06-I 06-II 06-III 06-IV 07-I 07-II 07-III 07-IV Actual Forecast Low Forecast High

23 Conclusion For 2007, higher feed prices are expected to result in a continued slowing of broiler meat production, helping beef and cattle prices. Beef cow slaughter in 2007 is expected to moderate from the 2006 year s high, weather driven slaughter rate, assuming normal weather patterns. Dairy cow slaughter is increasing, reflecting herd liquidation due to poor returns. As a result, the January 1, 2008 cow inventory is expected to show, at most, only a modest increase. Given this supply and demand outlook, calf values will likely be $45 to $60 per head below those seen in the first half of 2006, and would follow an average seasonal pattern. Longer term, slow rebuilding of the U.S. herd will support calf prices, but we will see increased volatility in calf prices because of structural change in the feed grain market.

24 Sources for information on the Internet Market Domestic and International Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook

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