What s Ahead for Fertilizer Pricing & Supply?
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1 What s Ahead for Fertilizer Pricing & Supply? Minnesota Department of Agriculture Crop Nutrient Management Conference Mankato, MN February 9, 2015 Andy Jung Director, Market and Strategic Analysis The Mosaic Company
2 Safe Harbor Statement This document contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of Such statements include, but are not limited to, statements about the Northern Promise Joint Venture, the acquisition and assumption of certain related liabilities of the Florida phosphate assets of CF Industries, Inc. ( CF ) and Mosaic s ammonia supply agreements with CF; repurchases of stock; other proposed or pending future transactions or strategic plans and other statements about future financial and operating results. Such statements are based upon the current beliefs and expectations of The Mosaic Company s management and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties. These risks and uncertainties include but are not limited to risks and uncertainties arising from the ability of the Northern Promise Joint Venture to obtain additional planned funding in acceptable amounts and upon acceptable terms, the future success of current plans for the Northern Promise Joint Venture and any future changes in those plans; difficulties with realization of the benefits of the transactions with CF, including the risks that the acquired assets may not be integrated successfully or that the cost or capital savings from the transactions may not be fully realized or may take longer to realize than expected, or the price of natural gas or ammonia changes to a level at which the natural gas based pricing under one of the long term ammonia supply agreements with CF becomes disadvantageous to Mosaic; customer defaults; the effects of Mosaic s decisions to exit business operations or locations; the predictability and volatility of, and customer expectations about, agriculture, fertilizer, raw material, energy and transportation markets that are subject to competitive and other pressures and economic and credit market conditions; the level of inventories in the distribution channels for crop nutrients; changes in foreign currency and exchange rates; international trade risks and other risks associated with Mosaic s international operations and those of joint ventures in which Mosaic participates, including the risk that protests against natural resource companies in Peru extend to or impact the Miski Mayo mine; changes in government policy; changes in environmental and other governmental regulation, including greenhouse gas regulation, implementation of numeric water quality standards for the discharge of nutrients into Florida waterways or efforts to reduce the flow of excess nutrients into the Mississippi River basin, the Gulf of Mexico or elsewhere; further developments in judicial or administrative proceedings, or complaints that Mosaic s operations are adversely impacting nearby farms, business operations or properties; difficulties or delays in receiving, increased costs of or challenges to necessary governmental permits or approvals or increased financial assurance requirements; resolution of global tax audit activity; the effectiveness of Mosaic s processes for managing its strategic priorities; adverse weather conditions affecting operations in Central Florida, the Mississippi River basin, the Gulf Coast of the United States or Canada, and including potential hurricanes, excess heat, cold, snow, rainfall or drought; actual costs of various items differing from management s current estimates, including, among others, asset retirement, environmental remediation, reclamation or other environmental regulation, Canadian resources taxes and royalties, the liabilities Mosaic assumed in the Florida phosphate assets acquisition, or the costs of the Northern Promise Joint Venture, its existing or future funding and Mosaic s commitments in support of such funding; reduction of Mosaic s available cash and liquidity, and increased leverage, due to its use of cash and/or available debt capacity to fund share repurchases, financial assurance requirements and strategic investments; brine inflows at Mosaic s Esterhazy, Saskatchewan, potash mine or other potash shaft mines; other accidents and disruptions involving Mosaic s operations, including potential mine fires, floods, explosions, seismic events or releases of hazardous or volatile chemicals, as well as other risks and uncertainties reported from time to time in The Mosaic Company s reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Actual results may differ from those set forth in the forward-looking statements. 2
3 Setting the Stage: Agricultural Commodity Outlook
4 Crop prices trending lower following the harvest rally US$ BU 7.00 New Crop Corn Prices Daily Close of the New Crop Contract (Sep 1 - Aug 31) US$ BU 14.0 New Crop Soybean Prices Daily Close of the New Crop Contract (Sep 1- Aug 31) Source: CME S O N D J F M A M J J A Source: CME S O N D J F M A M J J A US$ BU Source: CME New Crop Hard Red Winter Wheat Prices Daily Close of the New Crop Option (Jul 1 - Jun 30) 2015 new crop corn -Still trading in the $4.00-$4.20 channel but concerns about demand prospects mainly due to the strong dollar 2015 new crop soybeans -Outstanding demand so far but worries about a record South American crop and a strong dollar J A S O N D J F M A M J new crop wheat -Strong rally driven by fears of Russian export restrictions and cold temps earlier this winter in the U.S. -However, the strong dollar and improved weather have the bears besting the bulls since late last year
5 The demand-pull story Record demand keeping stocks as a % of use low Profitable livestock economics and strong feed demand U.S. exports, especially soybean sales, off to a fast start Don t worry about biofuels just yet -U.S. refining and distribution system calibrated to E10 -U.S. RFS under pressure but likely will stay in place Long-term food story still intact Wide range of potential outcomes in 15/16 - Trend use + trend yield = stock drawdown Mil Tonnes 3,000 2,800 2,600 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 World Grain & Oilseed Use Source: USDA and Mosaic F Global Grain & Oilseed Stocks as a Percent of Use 30.0% Source: USDA 27.5% 25.0% 22.5% 20.0% 17.5% 15.0% F Mil Tonnes World Grain & Oilseed Stocks 700 Farm Crisis Source: USDA and Mosaic Food Crisis E15F USDA Mosaic 2015/ 16 Range Mosaic Medium Scenarios
6 P&K prices steady to firming in late 2014 and Q1 Price drivers today Continued positive demand outlook Banking on a rebound in India A few supply changes and uncertainties Closure of MissPhos facility Flooding of Solikamsk-2 potash mine Record China nitrogen and phosphate exports Volatile phosphate raw material costs Ammonia prices moving lower for now Sulphur prices remain stubbornly high $ ST MOP Prices Blend Grade fob U.S. Midwest Warehouse Source: Green Markets $ ST Source: Green Markets DAP Prices U.S. Midwest Warehouse $ ST Source: Green Markets Ammonia Prices U.S. Midwest
7 But plant nutrients remain affordable, especially since the harvest rally in key crop prices Plant Nutrient Affordability Plant Nutrient Price Index / Crop Price Index Source: Weekly Price Publications, CME, USDA, AAPFCO, Mosaic More Affordable Less Affordable Affordability Metric Average 7
8 The Phosphate Outlook
9 In North America: consolidation, supply changes tightening the market Mil Tonnes P 2 O U.S. Phosphoric Acid Production Source: TFI and Mosaic E15F More than 1.0 million tonnes of U.S. finished phosphate capacity either closed permanently or shut down in 2014: -PotashCorp closed permanently its Suwannee River complex at mid-year (equivalent of 415,000 tonnes MAP) -MissPhosin bankruptcy and ceased production in December (~600,000 tonnes annual DAP/MAP production) 9
10 leading to greater imports 1,000 Tons U.S. DAP and MAP Imports 400 Source: Dept. of Commerce and Mosaic Jul Aug Sep Oct N ov D ec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun MIN MAX Range (07/ 08-13/ 14) 2014/15 7-Yr Olympic Avg Offsetting lower U.S. output, imports through 1H of the fertilizer year have been record-setting - Jul-Dec DAP/MAP imports of 1.25 million tonnes more than triple the same period last year Higher import requirements mean international events have an even greater impact on the U.S. market 10
11 The big swing factors in the global market: India s import appetite and China export volumes Mil Tonnes India DAP/ MAP/ TSP Imports MMT Product Global Phosphate Shipments DAP/ MAP/ MES/TSP Souce: CRU, IFA, Mosaic Source: CRU and Mosaic India expected to account for two-thirds of the projected increase in global shipments this year Farm economics remain profitable; the distribution channel looks bone dry; windfall from lower oil prices China exported record phosphate in Will it continue with a new flat rate tax? After record Brazilian imports in 2014, this year also looks constructive Though shipments look to taper on lower crop prices E15F DAP MAP TSP E15F First-half 2015 North American demand prospects look solid OK farm economics and ongoing concern about transportation delays Second-half demand will hinge on the size of the 2015 harvest and the level of crop prices Mostly steady application rates (i.e. no large drop off) Global shipments are forecast to post a another gain in Shipments are projected to climb to a spot estimate of 65.6 million tonnes this year from 64.4 in 2014
12 The Potash Outlook
13 To meet record global demand, producer cupboards were pulled low (if not bare) in North America Mil Tonnes KCl 3.5 Source: IPNI 3.0 North America MOP Ending Stocks Jul Jan 2010/11 Jul 2011/12 Jan Jul 2012/13 Record shattering global shipments in Moderate prices, profitable farm economics, better nutrient balance Jan Jul 2013/14 Jan Jul 2014/15 In North America, producers relied on large inventories to meet the 2014 surge in demand North American demand last year was the highest since 2007 When combined with lower output, producer inventories plunged 1.7 million tonnes between Jan 31 and Sep 30 Jan
14 Russia / Belarus production jumped in 2014, but unlikely to be repeated in 2015 FSU producers ratcheted up production by 5 million tonnes (from 17 to 22 million) to meet the surge in demand last year The production gains were aided by devaluing currencies -Russian granular MOP export prices (in local currency) have more than doubled in the past 6 months FSU production uncertainties this year -Potential loss of Uralkali s Solikamsk 2 mine (~2.5 million tonnes or 3% of global capacity) -Mines likely in need of maintenance turnarounds after record output in
15 Global shipments to stay elevated in 2015 Mil Tonnes KCl Global Potash Shipments 60 Source: CRU and Mosaic E15F Broadly flat global shipments in Flat to small declines in the Americas and China will be offset by further gains in Indonesia, Malaysia and India - First-half demand prospects look solid: Underpinned by the harvest rally for key crop prices -But second-half demand will hinge on the size of the 2015 harvest and the level of 2016 crop prices 15
16 The Nitrogen Outlook
17 Lower oil prices impact energy intensive nitrogen A collapse in oil prices continues to exert pressure on ammonia pricing, after closing 2014 on a bearish note Poor North American fall application season Lower North American natural gas prices Some European natural gas prices tied to oil prices Additional supply availability out of the Black Sea and Middle East Rare exports out of the U.S. highlight recent (but likely short-lived) glut of domestic supply The key drivers in 2015: Fewer production disruptions this year Increased spot availability out of the U.S. Gulf and Caribbean But sanctions still in place on some Russian exports, and Ukrainian production remains a wildcard Can record urea exports from China continue? 17 $ BBL Source: NYMEX WTI Crude Oil Prices Daily Close of Front Month Contract Mil MT U.S. Ammonia Fert Use Source: Fertecon Nitrogen Fertilizers Phosphate Products Direct Application 0 World Ammonia Fert Use
18 Summary
19 Nice charts, but what are the takeaways for 2015? Global markets U.S. represents ~10% of global fertilizer demand Corn and soybeans account for just 20% of fertilizer consumption Events half a world away (Russian sinkholes, Moroccan ocean swells) can cause a price run-up or collapse Logistics in better shape this year Strong close to 2014 and good start to 2015 buying Much of that has been able to be placed with this winter s moderate weather Fewer oil shipments may ease some rail pressure But 5% rail demand growth vs. 2% supply growth makes this an ongoing challenge Much uncertainty for the 2 nd half of 2015 What will happen to crop prices? How big will Brazil s crop be? How many acres will farmers plant? Fertilizer supply / demand balance Global demand expected at or near records again in 2015 Significant nutrient removal from two consecutive massive crops Supply disruptions are offsetting new capacity being commissioned Fertilizer company investments continuing but at a high cost 19 Source:IFA Corn 16% Soybeans 4% Other 35% China 32% Global Fertilizer Demand Other 43% Source:CRU,Fertecon,Mosaic Nitrogen,Phosphate and Potash Fertilizers Wheat 16% India 10% Fruit & Veg. 15% Global Fertilizer Use by Crop Rice 14% USA 10% Brazil 5%
20 Look for much more insight and analysis on the Mosaic website Mosaic Stakeholder Handbook Market Alerts Market Mosaic Past Presentations 20
21 Thank You What s Ahead for Fertilizer Pricing & Supply? Minnesota Department of Agriculture Crop Nutrient Management Conference Mankato, MN February 9, 2015 Andy Jung Director, Market and Strategic Analysis The Mosaic Company
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